The week was possibly the quietest ever for big movers. There were no shares that declined by 5% or more, and only one that increased by 5% or more.
Share of the Week goes to IQE:IQE, which climbed 6% for the second week running in my ISA as the shorts are closing fast. The rise isn't as rapid as I hoped, but I think that's because the short squeeze isn't panicked - they are just gradually closing their positions. If they can return to the 100p range that they occupied before the last shorting attack, I'll bank the £689 (32%) profit in my ISA and keep the SIPP holding for longer term. The ISA holding was meant to be a short term purchase anyway - it just went a bit wrong when the crash came straight afterwards.
Back to halfway between orange and red, but this has been the point of resistance several times over the last six months.
Here's the ISA and share accounts performance
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £13.44 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £57,783.58 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) | £45,370.62 | (-21.5%) | +£1,273.38 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Dividends | £0.63 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Profit from sales | £-167.28 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit | -£29.27 | (-0.6%) | +£1.09 |
| Total Dividends | £1,342.93 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £20,224.13 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £392.07 | (8.1%) | -£1.67 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) | |||
| Performance/Injection | 12.6% | -0.1% | |
| Compound performance | 57% | +0% |
A healthy rise of £1,273 in value, mainly thanks to a 2p increase for OPTI:Optibiotix and the 6% increase for IQE:IQE. There are still no shares in profit, but OPTI:Optibiotix is only 3% down now, so there is hope. IKA:Ilika is 12% down and very volatile, so that could come good soon. JLP:Jubilee Metals is 15% down and I feel still primed for something exciting, and IQE:IQE is 21% down and will be in profit within 4 weeks at the current rate of improvement.
There are now 3 shares in this portfolio that are down by 100%. BLCC:Block Commodities used to be AFPO:African Potash and has been an unmitigated disaster. They are a perfect example of falling for a sweet talking CEO who will never deliver anything other than a paycheck for himself. Not only have they abandoned any ideas of supplying potash to African farmers, there appears to be no movement whatsoever on their blockchain financing plans, and now they are talking about getting into medicinal cannabis! They are listed on NEX, but are standing at 0.007p a share after I paid 2.45p. It's £707 that I will be writing off as a loss at some point.
TRK:Torotrak have gone bust so I don't even know why my shares still exist. I guess once the liquidation is over there might be a few pennies left to return to shareholders, but I very much doubt it. My holding only cost £106, as it was one of the first shares I bought, and taught me a valuable lesson about fishing for shares at their lowest ever price.
The final share down 100% is my biggest investment mistake so far. I sank £2,521 into MTFB:Motif Bio because they had passed Phase III trials and I naively thought that was enough to market the product. Little did I know that the FDA would ruin all that and reject their drug application. Some company is going to make a fortune on the back of the work done by MTFB, while shareholders are left stranded with a vague hope that selling the rights to the product raises enough to reverse takeover into something else. My lesson from this? Stay well away from junior pharma as they don't have the cash needed to get a drug through the regulatory hurdles. Only the big boys can afford that.
Still closer to the injection line than the cost line, so a long way to go
Only one week in the last 12 months where this account was in the black, and it will be gone very soon. The very top of the trend line is still £2,000 in the red. All rather bad.
The SIPP looks like this after week 220
| Weekly Change | ||||
| Cash | £59.40 | +£0 | ||
| Portfolio cost | £46,995.31 | +£0 | ||
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) |
£41,137.86 | (-12.5%) | +£1,034.08 | |
| Potential profits | £377.97 | -£15.00 | ||
| Yr 5 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Interest | £0.02 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Profit from sales | £0 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit | -£15.86 | (-0.4%) | +£1.44 | |
| Total Dividends | £1,899.24 | +£0 | ||
| Total Interest | £0.18 | +£0 | ||
| Total Profit from sales | £12,549.10 | +£0 | ||
| Average monthly cash profit | £274.99 | (7.0%) | -£1.26 | |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) | ||||
| Performance/Injection | 11.0% | -0.01% | ||
| Compound performance | 47% | +0% |
Very similar story to the ISA, with the increases in OPTI:Optibiotix and IQE:IQE causing an increase in value of £1,034. Potential profits dropped by £15 after CAML:Central Asia Metals fell by 0.5p. I'm concerned about average performance dropping to 7%, but still can't see where my salvation is coming from.
There is some hope though, as OPTI:Optibiotix is only 4% down in this account - not that I will ever sell any. MXX:Minds + Machines is torturing me, as it's been only 1% down for the last 2 weeks but tends to stay still until there's news. I'm amazed that news of a dividend didn't attract more investors. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is only 19% down and very volatile, and I bought these with the intention of trading to try and get my ultimate number of shares up. My mistake was thinking 14p would be the low just before they dropped to 12p!!
There are no 100% losers in this portfolio, but TRX:Tissue Regenix isn't far off, with a 95% drop. I still can't fathom how a company with such a good product and potentially global sales can spend so much money that it keeps making a loss. If they can get someone with a commercial brain on the board then there may still be hope.
N4P:N4 Pharma is a candidate for going to 100% loss. I bought them around the same time as MTFB:Motif Bio before I learned my lesson about junior pharma. I thought my reasoning was sound - they were re-formulating and improving widely used drugs, and also had Nuvec for delivering cancer treatments. I figured that much diversity must lessen the risk. Unfortunately their re-formulation of Viagra failed miserably and revealed the whole process was flawed and they shut down that part of the business. All diversity gone in a day and now they are a one-trick pony, down 87% and with very limited chance of recovering the £1,244 I invested.
My other SIPP disaster is SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy, which I bought because I believed they were going to build a huge tidal power farm. They still have only 4 turbines!! They seem to be another R&D company with no commercial brain. They have now taken on the massively risky and expensive re-purposing Uskmouth power station to burn waste. I don't have high hopes, but only invested £659 so won't lose too much.
As with the ISA, this has reached the resistance point, but it's much closer to breaking even. I had a note from Hargreaves Lansdown with the projected value of my pension when I'm 65. They reckoned £50,000. It cost nearly that! I'm counting on it being worth £50,000 in 2020, not 13 years in the future.
Nice to know I still have 3 months before I lose all the above-zero weeks.
The dreaded trading account looks like this after week 186
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £48.24 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £2,321.29 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £1,333.72 | (-42.5%) | +£10.05 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 4 Dividends | £13.20 | +£0 | |
| Year 4 Profit | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit | £1.91 | (1.0%) | -£0.06 |
| Dividends | £47.92 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | -£64.29 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | -£0.38 | (-0.2%) | +£0 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) | |||
| Performance/Injection | -0.2% | +0% | |
| Compound performance | -1% | +0% |
Another small rise, but I'm making the stunning profit of almost £2 a month this year, and still making a 38p a month loss overall. That's an utterly desperate return from 3.5 years. I might be the worst trader ever!
At this rate it's going to take 10 years to get to break even.
We're still just above the trend line, so lets remain positive.
Here's the fantasy magic formula account.
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £153.61 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £29,846.39 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value | £31,298.75 | (+4.8%) | +£288.73 |
| Potential profits | £2,330.61 | +£534.21 | |
| Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | £0 | +£0 |
Well, it appears the magic formula is much better at picking stocks than I am. Potential profits increased an impressive £534, but some losses deepened as the overall value only went up £288. This account has gone up every single week!
The 7 house builders are doing the best, all up between 25 and 30%. WIZZ:Wizz Air is up 14% and GROW:Draper Esprit is up 12%.
BUR:Burford Capital is worst, down 19%, and BMN:Bushveld Minerals is down 16%, with SQZ:Serica Energy being the only other double-digit loser, down 11%.
My pension cash will come through at the end of March, so it will be interesting to see how the list pans out by then. I suspect all the house builders will have dropped off, as they will be 30% more expensive and I missed my chance. It takes a long time to prep the list as I have to check each company individually. I'm thinking of adding a few more criteria to the ranking system too. Dividend yield being the one that immediately springs to mind, but I think debt is also one I'd like to add.
No news anticipated next week, although the latest OPTI:Optibiotix interview on Proactive Investors was the most upbeat yet, and there were some very interesting hints about progress with Sweetbiotix development. It's only a matter of time before one of those lands, and we'll need to buckle up when it does.
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