Biggest loser was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which dropped 10% in my SIPP and 7% in my ISA. It goes to show the short-term view of AIM investors, as the fall was caused by news of a deal to treat psoriasis. I think people were expecting a deal with earnings within 6 months, as this had been hinted at by SBTX CEO in an interview, but it was clear from the RNS that this will take at least 2 years to develop. At this price I really want to buy more, as the recent deal with CRDA:Croda is massive, and that alone will bring in huge revenues, but again in 18 months or so. Buy now and sit on them, but I have no ammo to make a purchase until the end of March, and that's promised to my pension magic formula project.
IQE:IQE were starting to look really good, with the shorts closing and the share price rising 8% a week. This week saw progress falter as Apple warned the coronavirus would impact iPhone production. There was a knee-jerk reaction which gave the shorters an opportunity to close more positions, which I think limited the drop to 5%.
Only one share increased by more than 5% and so Share of the Week goes to JLP:Jubilee Metals, continuing recent good form and rising 8%. They are only 7% down now, so another week like this will see them in profit. I've got 104,545 shares costing £4,639, making it my 4th biggest holding after OPTI:Optibiotix (£69,515), CAML:Central Asia Metals (£6,408) and IQE:IQE (£5,049). With the revenues soaring, I think there's a reasonable chance these could get to 15p, which would give £11,000 (238%) profit. The problem is their amazing ability to shoot themselves in the foot, and their seeming complete disregard for shareholders. It's a major red flag that the CEO owns practically no shares and the Chairman has used this company to help bail out one of his other failing companies, of which he has many. If JLP make any money, it could easily vanish into fixing other disasters without the shareholders seeing a penny. For that reason I don't see this as a long term holding as it's too risky.
Please don't let this be the start of another downward cycle. I'm fed up of bounce, bounce, bounce.
The drop keeps us well above the trend line
The ISA and share accounts look like this
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £13.44 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £57,783.58 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) | £44,364.86 | (-23.2%) | -£1,005.76 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Dividends | £0.63 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Profit from sales | £-167.28 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit | -£28.26 | (-0.6%) | +£1.01 |
| Total Dividends | £1,342.93 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £20,224.13 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £390.42 | (8.1%) | -£1.65 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) | |||
| Performance/Injection | 12.6% | +0% | |
| Compound performance | 57% | +0% |
The drop in value was around £200 less than last week's gain, and apart from that nothing much to say.
Back to being closer to the orange line than the red.
This is it - the last week before all the weeks in the black disappear. A whole year in the red. Desperate.
The SIPP looks like this after week 221
| Weekly Change | ||||
| Cash | £59.41 | +£0.01 | ||
| Portfolio cost | £46,995.31 | +£0 | ||
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) |
£39,864.27 | (-15.2%) | -£1,273.59 | |
| Potential profits | £362.97 | -£15.00 | ||
| Yr 5 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Interest | £0.03 | +£0.01 | ||
| Yr 5 Profit from sales | £0 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit | -£14.64 | (-0.4%) | +£1.22 | |
| Total Dividends | £1,899.24 | +£0 | ||
| Total Interest | £0.20 | +£0.01 | ||
| Total Profit from sales | £12,549.10 | +£0 | ||
| Average monthly cash profit | £273.75 | (7.0%) | -£1.24 | |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) | ||||
| Performance/Injection | 11.0% | +0% | ||
| Compound performance | 47% | +0% |
The value dropped by around £200 more than the gains last week, which is bad. Nearly everything dropped in value. I discovered another 1p interest that I missed on the 9th February, so at least I made some money this week!
Not much change really, and still closer to the red than the orange, so moderately happy.
I can feel the trend line being dragged flatter every day.
The trading account looks like this after week 187
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £48.24 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £2,321.29 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £1,318.38 | (-43.2%) | -£15.34 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 4 Dividends | £13.20 | +£0 | |
| Year 4 Profit | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit | £1.85 | (1.0%) | -£0.06 |
| Dividends | £47.92 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | -£64.29 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | -£0.38 | (-0.2%) | +£0 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) | |||
| Performance/Injection | -0.2% | +0% | |
| Compound performance | -1% | +0% |
I'm relieved that the loss was only £15, as nearly everything dropped in value.
T'is but a blip.
There's momentum, but then there has been momentum before, and it got clobbered in one week.
Here's the fantasy magic formula account, which will be very complicated as I made some big changes
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £748.50 | +£594.89 | |
| Portfolio cost | £29,846.39 | +£84.07 | |
| Portfolio sell value | £31,427.66 | (+2.5%) | +£128.91 |
| Potential profits | £1,276.66 | -£1,053.95 | |
| Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | £678.96 | +£678.96 |
The portfolio value climbed a little, but is pretty flat given the cost also went up. Potential profits fell by £1,053, but that's largely because I banked £678. If only this account was real!!
The house builders are still doing best, with PSN:Persimmon (29%) and RDW:Redrow and BWY:Bellway (both 24%) leading the way. ASY:AndrewsSykes Group is up 14% in a week, and III:3i Group is up 10%. Most of the biggest losers got sold, but DGOC:Diversified Oil & Gas is down 11% and ITV:ITV down 9% in a week.
I changed my formula to include the ratio of debt to earnings, and the dividend yield. Those were added to P/E ratio and return on capital employed (ROCE). I figure this gives me a cheap share (low P/E) combined with good return on capital, combined with high dividends, combined with low debt compared to earnings.
The company that came out on top was FXPO:Ferrexpo, and the company that came second was PLUS:Plus500. Those are the two that I need to research closely for the next month, as they are top candidates for the £2,000 pension transfer.
The change meant I lost all the dodgy AIM companies that don't pay any dividend, and most of the house builders as they have high debts. I sold anything that didn't come in the revised top 30, even if for a loss, and my net gain was £678 realised profit. I stuck to my rule of only spending £1,000 for each share and filled the gaps to make the new top 30. Here they are:
There are a few house builders still in there, and I'm really happy to say that CAML:Central Asia Metals comes in 14th out of 450. Given that I absolutely know that's a great company and under-valued, then it gives me a lot of hope for this formula. I've owned REDD:Redde, RDW:Redrow, JLG:John Laing Group and ASHM:Ashmore Group before, and all were good companies.
Unfortunately I can only buy 2 companies every 4 months, so it's going to take years to get the full 30 in real life. I may be able to accelerate the purchases if I can sell a few from the existing portfolio, and I already have CAML:Central Asia Metals so don't need to buy any more of them.
There are a few I won't buy on environmental grounds such as DGOC:Diversified Oil & Gas, so a big part of my research needs to be to ensure they are acceptable environmentally, and any where there are glaring red flags will be passed by.
Note that the account holds £748 cash. My rule is I can't buy another share until there is £1,000 to spend, and then I either buy a new company that has entered the top 30, or if there isn't one then I buy another £1,000 of whichever company is highest up the ranking and still has only had £1,000 spent.
It's quite frustrating that I don't have £30K to try this out for real, but I guess it's good to practice on a virtual portfolio for a while so I don't do anything stupid with real cash.
My target for next week is for just one of my shares other than CAML:Central Asia Metals to go into profit - it's not an awful lot to ask...
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