Week 248 Review - Another dip, but almost a flat week

Very little happened this week, but a 1p drift from OPTI:Optibiotix contributed to a drop of £1,255 in portfolio value, widening the gap between cost and value to £33,028 and reducing overall value to £78,496

My run of 4 weeks with no significant faller was broken this week, as TLOU:Tlou Energy drifted down by 5%. I think lack of news and a shutdown in de-watering operations means a slide is inevitable, but I think the chances of this getting somewhere are better now than they were when the share price was 4 times this level. My holding is 64% down and losing £1,737. I won't invest any more even at this level, as my days of backing high-risk startups are over. I think this one is well managed though, and doing everything right. It's just taking a lot longer than I and the market hoped.

Share of the Week was the only one that had a significant rise. IKA:Ilika climbed 5% and is only 11% down now, so hope is re-kindled. I still intend to bail as soon as I've made a decent profit as I think the Board are scientists and not commercial managers. I reserve the right to change my mind if there's big news though...

An extension to last week's slight drop

Still well above the trend line, which is still firmly down.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£7.98		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£59,827.79		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£40,944.10	(-31.6%)	-£678.59
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£21.30	(-0.4%)	+£0.55
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£372.97	(7.5%)	-£1.51
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.4%		-0.1%
Compound performance	54%		+0%

Cash dropped by the ISA charge, and I consider anything less than £1,000 difference to be flat.

Still just above the orange line





The trend line should flatten out quite quickly over the next few weeks as the "highs" from 12 months ago disappear, and hopefully as the performance improves.

The SIPP looks like this after week 232

			Weekly Change
Cash	£22.50		-£13.94
Portfolio cost	£49,176.17		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£35,996.95	(-26.8%)	-£555.99
Potential profits	£239.14		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£14.74	(-0.4%)	-£1.99
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£260.07	(6.3%)	-£1.38
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	9.8%		+0%
Compound performance	44%		+0%

Monthly charges reduced the cash pot by £13 and hammered year 5 performance, which is suffering as I haven't sold anything in the last 6 months. Pretty flat apart from that.

Note the absence of the £2,800 injection following the Legal & General transfer. 10 days after the re-submitted transfer request and the funds haven't been sold to facilitate the transfer. I'm rapidly losing my patience and have asked Hargreaves Lansdown what regulatory threats we can hit them with.

I reckon the trend line will reverse in about 16 weeks - if there's a recovery.

Here's the trading account after week 198

			Weekly Change
Cash	£0.09		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,490.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,524.60	(-38.8%)	-£20.67
Potential profits	£53.69		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£120.77		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£13.82	(6.7%)	-£0.34
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£56.48		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£2.28	(1.1%)	-£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	1.2%		+0%
Compound performance	5%		+0%

Slight dip as most things in the portfolio dropped a little, especially TRMR:Tremor. JLP:Jubilee Metals stayed still so potential profits remained at £53. Operations have re-started there, so hopefully this will climb quite quickly, as metals prices are recovering and cash is flowing. I'm feeling so enthused about JLP at the moment I may consider adding some in my SIPP!

This is starting to look a bit more promising

Even this chart is looking significantly better. It could flatten out in 9 weeks. Such a long way below £0 though.

The virtual magic formula portfolio is down by 18.09% compared to 19.81% last week, so slowly sneaking up. PLUS:Plus 500 is still top performer at 55% up, but DGOC:Diversified Oil & Gas and JLG:John Laing Group have now joined IGG:IG Group Holdings in the black. CARD:Card Factory and ITV:ITV are still the worst performers.

It's possible there will be a trading statement from OPTI:Optibiotix next week. If there is, I desperately hope it's a good one as I've convinced 2 friends to invest. I've been banging on about OPTI the same way I used to bang on about Game of Thrones after I first read the book, and obsessively told everyone what a great TV series it would make if anyone was brave enough to attempt it. I hope I've called this one as right as I did that! The recent China deal has helped calm any nerves about being wrong. I'm still targeting a 600p share price with a 5% dividend churning out £34,000 dividends a year and enabling me to retire.

IF my £2,800 pension transfer turns up I'll be able to put my SIPP plan into action. I still plan to increase my CAML:Central Asia Metals holding to 5,000 shares despite the price having gone up, and I still intent to get my first magic formula purchase of FXPO:Ferrexpo as it remains top of my ranking table by miles. That ought to leave around £500 over, so I will wait for 21st May when I get my tax refund and either buy some JLP:Jubilee Metals if they are still around 3p, or some more OPTI:Optibiotix if they are still below 60p, or re-visit my magic formula table, which will have had a bit of a shake up and see what's number 2 in the ranking. I know I ought to do the latter option whatever happens, but sometimes it's better the devil you know...