Sunday, 9 August 2020

Week 261 Review - Jubilee Metals takes off at last

 This was a good week for a decent section of the portfolio, especially JLP:Jubilee Metals which finally got past 5p and well into profit. That along with a 2p recovery for OPTI:Optibiotix led to a £4,457 improvement in the deficit between cost and value. That reduced to £30,079 and total portfolio value, aided by the £2,000 pension transfer, reached £90,762.

The only big loser was SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy due to the announcement of a discounted placing. They dropped 8% and are now 82% down so I won't be partaking in their primary bid fundraise.

POLR:Polar Capital Holdings climbed 6% but it wasn't enough to get into the black. They are still 2% down but I'm confident they will be in profit soon, in fact they already are if you consider the dividend.

PAY:Paypoint is another one of my recent SIPP magic formula buys and it's doing well as they climbed 7% this week and are 11% up altogether.

FXPO:Ferrexpo also seem to have recovered from their blip, and great results saw them climb 8% this week to go back into profit and 5% up.

IQE:IQE had a really good week, and there seems to be a slow and steady momentum building. Could I get back all these losses? The ISA holding climbed 12% and is now only 19% down so we just need a couple more weeks like this. My ISA holding was only meant to be a temporary quick win, which was a bit of a disastrous move.

Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals. The deal for a load of copper tailings was announced, and as hinted in recent interviews, it will be paid for by cash and debt, so no placing and no dilution. This saw a 15% surge in the value of my ISA shares which are now 18% up. I would have sold these as I was disillusioned with them, but I think I've changed my mind as JLP seems to be snowballing into something quite impressive.

I've been so impressed lately that when my £2,000 pension transfer arrived, I didn't invest it in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics as I had planned. Instead I put it into JLP:Jubilee Metals. I bought 45,772 shares for 4.3499p costing £1,999.99. Happy to say by the end of the week they were 16% up and making £322 potential profit.



A nice rise, and my costs go past £120K for the first time.


Will it be a springboard or a blip?

Here's the ISA and share accounts




Weekly Change
Cash £10.73

-£3.75
Portfolio cost £62,366.49
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £45,352.67 (-27.3%) +£2,545.45
Potential profits £1,083.64
+£923.97
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit -£16.26 (-0%) -£16.26
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,426.61
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £357.51     (6.9%) -£1.44
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 10.3%
+0%
Compound performance 52%
+0%

Cash dropped by the monthly ISA fee, but look at that potential profit! Up £923 to £1,083. That's all JLP:Jubilee Metals. I'm not going to sell any of these, which is something I never thought I would write. The rest of the £2,545 improvement was mostly IQE:IQE and OPTI:Optibiotix. It's week 1 of year 6 and there was a £3.75 charge, so average monthly performance looks horrible but will get down to the ISA charge after 4 weeks and stay there till I sell something.



Nice to have a bigger gap above the injection line, but it's still not very big.



I'll do a jig of joy when the deficit gets to less than £10K as it will be better performance than any time in the last 12 months.

Here's the SIPP after week 245



Weekly Change
Cash £63.85
-£15.75
Portfolio cost £55,826.02
+£1,999.99
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£43,719.79 (-21.7%) +£1,860.55
Potential profits £542.77
+£419.43
Yr 5 Dividends £77.92
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £765.90
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit £83.89 (1.8%) -£4.23
Total Dividends £1,977.16
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £13,315.00
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £260.38 (5.6%) -£1.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 8.4%
-0.6%
Compound performance 40%
-2%

Cash dropped by the monthly charge, portfolio cost went up by the cost of JLP:Jubilee Metals, lots of shares contributed to the £1,860 improvement in value, and potential profits rose by £419 thanks to multiple shares. Note that the £1,860 rise is on top of the cost of the new shares as I deduct that so it reflects the improvement between cost and value since last week.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha is up £57 (6%), FXP:Ferrexpo is up £51 (5%), JLP:Jubilee Metals is up an impressive £322 (16%) and PAY:Paypoint is up £111 (11%). It's been a long, long time since so many shares in the SIPP were making a profit. This time I won't be selling until the 12 month review of the magic formula. If a share has dropped out based on dividend and company performance then I'll sell. That will effectively be the rank total excluding the one for P/E ratio because I won't care if they are no longer cheap. That's a good thought actually - I should add that column as it effectively shows the best companies even if they are expensive.

The injection of cash caused my performance compared to injection to drop, It's going to take a stonking profit to get back to my target 10% though.

I do still want to get back into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, but it's got way ahead of the previous 20p resistance. Based on the experience of the OPTI:Optibiotix share price, there will be these flurries of excitement now and again before the traders drag the price back down. I'll probably hold my JLP:Jubilee Metals shares until that happens, then use the proceeds to buy SBTX. I'll do the same in the ISA with IQE:IQE which I always intended to sell quick and just hold the ones in my SIPP longer term. I just need IQE make it back above 100p before I sell.


Nice when everything points upwards


A £5K rise should be enough to flatten the trend line.

The Trading account looks like this after week 211




Weekly Change
Cash £220.72
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,354.16
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,394.42 (-40.8%) +£51.36
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 5 Profit £154.70
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit £223.45 (113.9%) -£111.72
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales £441.07
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £10.04 (5.1%) -£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)


A reasonable wee saw the value rise by £51, but I'm now stuck with a load of long term losing shares so the flurry of excitement over the last few weeks is gone.

One benefit of all the buying and selling this month has been my commission coming down to £8.95. Only a £3 saving but it all adds up.



Back on the way up, but it needs an announcement by TLOU:Tlou Energy that de-watering has re-commenced to get that share moving, as it was the suspension of work that caused it to drop.



At least we're back above the trend line as I'm rather desperate to have at least one account going n the right direction.

The virtual magic formula portfolio ended the week down by 13.58% instead of over 16% down last week, so a pretty good week. There are 6 companies in the black, and I only have shares in one of those. Interesting that so many of the ones I hold are not yet back to their pre-covid price. It means there are still lots of bargains to be had.

As I wrote much of this blog yesterday, I've had a chance to add up the rankings of my magic formula shares and exclude the P/E ratio rank. That should give me the best companies despite them being expensive. The results are quite surprising!

Top of the ranking is POLR:Polar Capital Holdings which I already own, so that means even after 12 months if it remains in the top 30 on this list I can keep it. Next is PSN:Persimmon which would be tempting if the housing market wasn't so risky at the moment. Having said that, people have been predicting a crash for years and it never seems to happen.

Next is FXPO:Ferrexpo which I already have, then APAX:Apax Global Alpha which I have, then PAY:Paypoint which I have too. The only one in my portfolio that slips is CAML:Central Asia Metals, but that's still 23rd and in the top 30. It means I would continue to hold all these shares if this was my 12 month review point. That review point is 1st June 2021 which is just after I bought FXPO:Ferrexpo.

It will be 4 months until I get my next £2,000 pension transfer, so likely the spreadsheet will have changed quite a bit by then. At least I now have 5 out of the 30 I want to get to. If I ever sell MMX:Minds + Machines then I'll use that to get another one. No chance of anything else turning a profit in the next 12 months, other than where I want to use the proceeds for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics.

I nearly forgot my wishes!

Still no SweetBiotix announcement from OPTI:Optibiotix, JLP:Jubilee Metals did get past 5p - yippee! POLR:Polar Capital Holdings nearly got into profit so that carries over, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutix increased to 25.5p instead of dropping to 16p so I'm keeping that, and TLOU:Tlou Energy didn't drop any further, which wasn't a very ambitious wish.

Here's my list for this week:

  1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. I'll keep this until it happens.
  2. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings to get in profit. So close - got to keep it here.
  3. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. I'm keeping this one, although maybe it's a big ask.
  4. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed.
  5. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p

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