Week 264 Review - Half last week's losses recovered

Not a bad week, with some strong performances in my larger holdings, and I took a loss in the SIPP which ruined the annual performance, but helped the gap between cost and value. That gap improved by £4,316 which is over half last week's losses, and the deficit between cost and value narrowed to £21,932 with total portfolio value of £98,694.

The only big loser was my trading account holding in TLOU:Tlou Energy, which dropped 13%. I'm still confused as to why this is dropping, as good progress was announced on getting the transmission line started, which is critical to being able to sell any electricity. I'm more positive about this company than I have been for some time.

OPTI:Optibiotix gained 2p, which although only 3%, is worth around £2,200 of this week's improvement.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha interims were excellent, and the share price gained 7%. It's still around 15p short of the pre-covid price which I expect it to make up in the next few weeks.

IQE:IQE lost loads of ground last week, but made up 9% this week. I'm still a long way down with these, but results are due out very soon and there's a feeling they could be quite positive on the back of strong results from most of their customers. Will the big investment in new reactors be starting to bear fruit? Shorters are certainly closing their positions, which is also helping boost the share price.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a blip last week as traders took profits, but this week climbed 9% and is still significantly below where they would be on current revenues if it weren't for a history of disappointments and placings. This time things are looking different, and the carrot of a potential dividend is being waved, along with new deals being financed with cash. It's been a long wait, but things are starting to get very exciting.

Share of the Week is DDDD:4D Pharma, which had unbelievably good results from early trials of their cancer drug, with 42% of participants having positive outcomes when all other drugs had failed for them. There are also anecdotal updates from people taking part in the IBS trial who claim to be cured, and results of that are due out soon. This is showing that gut bacteria can be used as a direct treatment, and along with the work OPTI:Optibiotix and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics are doing, strongly suggests the microbiome is an important sector to be investing in. DDDD climbed 35% this week and my holding is now 95% up. Although frustrating that OPTI is still losing me money after 5 years, at least I had time to accumulate lots cheaply. I don't think I'll get that chance with DDDD.

I think we're still just slightly closer to the injection line than the cost line so need another week like this one to get back to a more comfortable position

The line is almost flat!

Here's the ISA and share porfolios

			Weekly Change
Cash	£10.73		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£48,599.62	(-22.1%)	+£1,952.72
Potential profits	£1,652.24		+£568.60
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	-£4.07	(-0.1%)	+£1.35
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£353.45	(6.8%)	-£1.34
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.2%		+0%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Nice big increase in value, and wonderful increase in potential profits of £568 all thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals. I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that my 10% performance target based on portfolio cost is over ambitious and encourages me to sell shares too early. 6.8% is still a hell of a lot more than I would get in any sort of savings account, so I will stick with my 10% target but based on injection amount and not value, as that's the return on what I've put into the account. That's at 10.2% so looking good.

Still rather a long way to go.

I do believe the trend line has flipped and is pointing upwards! Much joy!

The SIPP looks like this after week 248

			Weekly Change
Cash	£81.10		+£17.25
Portfolio cost	£55,593.53		-£232.49
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£48,370.82	(-13.0%)	+£2,149.49
Potential profits	£2,136.90		+£755.84
Yr 5 Dividends	£96.37		+£18.45
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£212.32		-£553.58
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£19.61	(0.4%)	-£59.98
Total Dividends	£1,995.61		+£18.45
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,761.31		-£553.58
Average monthly cash profit	£247.88	(5.4%)	-£10.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.0%		-0.4%
Compound performance	38%		-2%

There's a lot going on here! The key event was selling N4P:N4 Pharma at a big loss. I've been completely disillusioned with them for some time, and I just see reams of bullshit coming from them and a feeble attempt to get on the Covid-19 bandwagon, which amazingly some investors have fallen for. I took the opportunity of an unwarranted rise in share price to ditch them. I made a £553 (44%) loss, but feel so good to be rid of them, and managed to salvage £690 from the mess.

I got a windfall refund from my electricity company as they've been over charging me, so I added £320 to here which gave me enough to - you guessed it - buy 1,852 more shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at the crazy bargain price of 54.15p, costing £1,011.81. This takes my OPTI holding to 117,323 at an average purchase price of 63.98p and costing £75,499.71. They are losing £9,834, but that's nothing a 9p price rise won't sort out.

I had a dividend this week. £18.45 came from FXPO:Ferrexpo which means I've had £47 dividends from them so far, which is worth an extra 4% on my profits. A few other SIPP shares have gone ex-dividend, so there will be more coming soon, and £80 tax rebate after this week's injection.

Potential profits rose by £755 this week, most of which was JLP:Jubilee Metals and DDDD:4D Pharma. Six of my SIPP shares are in profit, which is the best for a long time. Although the magic formula shares are proving the theory works, the really big profits are in the AIM shares mentioned just above, showing that having a mix of the 2 approaches is a good policy.

The sell at a big loss obliterated the year 5 performance, dropping profits by £59 a month. The effect on long term performance was £10 a month and a drop to 5.4% return, which is way below what I want. Even the performance against injection is only 8% so 2% below target.

My plan is still to only keep JLP:Jubilee Metals in this account until SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics drops back to my 16p target buy-in price. If it doesn't then I'll keep JLP as I think they will still make loads of money, but I'd rather focus my ISA account on that for the longer term and get a nice pile of SBTX in the SIPP instead.

If I ever get to sell MMX:Minds + Machines then I may use that to increase my DDDD:4D Pharma holding

Looking pretty good. Only 13% in the red now, so maybe even a chance of getting back into profit. It only needs a £7,000 swing.

Strange that although this account is doing much better than the ISA, it's still in a downward trend unlike the ISA.

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 214

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,411.04	(-40.1%)	-£18.12
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£111.72	(57.0%)	-£22.35
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£9.90	(5.0%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

The big drop in TLOU:Tlou Energy did most of the damage that resulted in an £18 drop in value. Back to being stuck in a tedious rut thanks to completely mis-reading the likely sentiment towards TLOU after the placing. I must remember that a good long term share is very different to a good trading share!

Still generally flat

Dangerously close to crossing the trend line, which is at least still pointing in the right direction.

I've decided to abandon reporting on the virtual magic formula portfolio as it seems pointless. I bought them all just before the Covid-19 crash, and I have enough in my SIPP to report on them in real life. By the time I have another £2,000 injection to the SIPP the rankings will probably have completely changed, so I don't know if the companies I'm reporting on now would even feature by then.

Here's the wish list:

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. Still nothing, in fact no announcements at all this week. Strange how the price is more likely to increase when there isn't an announcement!
   
2. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. It's heading in the right direction. It's down from 24.5p to 22.5p so there's hope. Given JLP:Jubilee Metals is still climbing, I'm happy to wait a few more weeks.
3. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. There was an announcement, but despite being a positive one the price still dropped. I think this announcement would cause it to go back up, so still hoping to see it.
   
4. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p. Yes! A 9% increase this week. I'm modifying my wish to be stellar results and a re-rate above 70p.
5. Six SIPP shares to stay in potential profit. Yes, this one is still true, but FXPO:Ferrexpo are only 1% up and POLR:Polar Capital Holdings are only up 2% so it's way too close for comfort.
6. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM. This still hasn't happened but surely must come soon. There was a better announcement of some more tailings to process nearby, but this is the one that I really want to see.
7. OPTI:Optibiotix to get within 10% of profit. Not quite. It's 11% down in the ISA and 15% down in the other accounts, so I'll stick with wishing for under 10% down in all accounts.
8. As we're about to hit September, I want to add a new wish that CAML:Central Asia Metals re-instate their dividend. Other miners have done it, and the fact they still haven't is having a real drag on the share price. Interim results were 17th September last year, so I may be a few weeks early, but want to get it on the list as surely there's a good chance for this one.