Saturday, 6 February 2021

Week 287 Review

This wasn't a bad week, with many of last week's losses recouped and a 2p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix contributing £2,600 to the rise of £4,567. That narrowed the deficit between cost and value to £4,390 and increased total portfolio value to £125,193.

Most substantial loser was my biggest mistake in a long while HUM:Hummingbird Resources. A somewhat underwhelming trading statement with worryingly high costs of gold production mean this is likely to languish until the price of gold goes back above $2,000. They dropped 16% this week to make my holding 27% down in not many weeks. Deeply upsetting for my trading account but less of a worry for my SIPP.

ITX:Itaconix was a really good buy at 3p, but doubling my holding at 6.7p was a big mistake now they've dropped to 5.5p. That was a 7% fall this week and shares that would have been up by about 60% are only up by 27% now. I like the story though so will keep these for a while - or will I?

It's all good news from here.

ITV:ITV climbed 6% which was especially satisfying as these didn't fall badly last week. They are now 55% up and I really hope will announce a dividend as a magic formula share not paying a dividend should really be thrown out for disobeying the rules.

TLOU:Tlou Energy have been slowly creeping up all week. They climbed 7% in the end and are now 52% down. My purchase of 8,809 shares at 2.2p in the open offer is looking great now they are selling at 3.5p, and will hopefully speed up the rate at which I get back into profit. These are still very high risk but the reward could be epic.

FXPO:Ferrexpo climbed 8% to take back half of last week's losses so I'm hoping for the same next week. They are 63% up so I can't complain. If only the uncertainty over the ex-CEO could be resolved I'm sure these would get away from their P/E ratio of 6 and double in value.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha didn't fall much last week, and so the 10% rise this week was unexpected. They are now 42% up, and with a 3.3% dividend so far, which will double in March, it's tempting to keep these in the SIPP for the long haul. The magic formula rule is to review after 12 months, so I will do that. It's not that I wouldn't mind keeping these, but a case of there may be something better.

TRX:Tissue Regenix climbed 10% and thanks to my massive buy of 90,594 shares at 0.54p my average price came down from almost 19p to 2.25p, so the recovery is much swifter than it would have been and my holding is only 68% down when it was 98% down a few months ago. Costs are still worryingly high, but they are producing and selling lots, so there is light at the end of the tunnel.

DDDD:4D Pharma are becoming one of my favourite shares and I want a load more. The update on the cancer trials was amazing. They are curing a wide range of cancers and I can't believe that news isn't causing a much bigger hike in share price. The 12% rise to 130.5p this week took my SIPP holding into profit by 5%, so at least some of the cash I was meant to have reserved for buying back SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics has done some good. Tragically SBTX has taken off so my chances of getting back in at a decent rate are diminishing rapidly. I may re-target my IQE:IQE ISA holding to DDDD instead, but I don't have long before the Nasdaq listing and IQE just won't get up to the magic 100p I need to make enough profit to be able to write off the disaster that is BLCC:Block Commodities.

Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals which was the worst performer last week dropping 24%. This week it made up 19% of that drop, and my holding is back up to £8,372 (194%) potential profit. Nice! I'm hoping this means we've ridden through the choppy waters caused by the directors selling all their shares and can wait excitedly for more operational updates, especially for our copper production.




Only made up half of last week's drop, and not enough to get back in the black.




Hoping for the same again next week to get us over the line.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 27 of year 6



Weekly Change
Cash £29.20

-£3.75
Portfolio cost £63,009.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £60,598.64 (-3.8%) +£2,455.67
Potential profits £8,430.28
+£764.24
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £591.81
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £90.77 (2.6%) -£4.11
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £21,018.42
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £333.72     (9.6%) -£1.22
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Compound performance 53%
+0%

Cash down due to monthly ISA fee, JLP:Jubilee Metals increased potential profits by £800 but IQE:IQE ate into that a little as potential profits dropped. Long term performance remains satisfactory but after 6 months the annual performance needs a boost.




Pretty much the same as the combined chart




Ditto

The SIPP looks like this after week 271 overall and week 11 of year 6.



Weekly Change
Cash £310.21
-£16.66
Portfolio cost £63,621.21
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£62,146.50 (-2.3%) +£2,132.10
Potential profits £4,766.64
+£665.61
Yr 6 Dividends £419.17
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £2,172.89
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,001.43 (30%) -£107.37
Total Dividends £2,486.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £17,632.33
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £310.98 (9.3%) -£1.43
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 49%
+0%

Similar story to the ISA, but with 7 shares in profit and DDDD:4D Pharma becoming the 8th. Looking at whether I want to sell anything, there are a few options. Half of my CMCL:Caledonia Mining purchase was just because they had dropped so much and I'll sell on a rebound, HUM:Hummingbird Resources may have been a mistake so I'll try and offload those, and I may abandon ITX:Itaconix for a while in order to get more DDDD.




All the charts are very similar this week.




Heading back in the right direction.

The trading account looks like this after week 237 overall and week 29 of year 5



Weekly Change
Cash £249.58
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,364.43
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,859.42 (-21.4%) -£20.50
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £631.65
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £96.20 (48.8%) -£3.44
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £918.02
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £17.88     (9.1%) -£0.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

The dip was mainly due to HUM:Hummingbird Resources. My good run in this account seems to have stalled.




A few bad weeks on the run




Disaster - we've crossed to the wrong side of the trend line! First time in 10 weeks.

My experience after selling all my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares has taught me never to completely sell out of a company I really like again. It's absolute torture being out of it completely as it does well. Even if I'd just kept a token amount I could still feel happy, instead of resentful and bitter. I'm convinced this share will be absolutely huge, and although I have an indirect holding via OPTI:Optibiotix, it doesn't feel the same as being an actual shareholder. I thought SBTX would behave the same as OPTI with wild swings for a long period, but that may not be happening. I can't bring myself to pay the current share price as I believe it's way too high, but it's not coming back down to a price where I feel I can invest. Deeply frustrating, but I only have myself to blame.

Having said that, I did make £5,217 profit selling them so maybe I can live with the frustration.

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