Saturday, 27 February 2021

Week 290 Review - Bad week all round but made 60% profit selling ITV

A pretty dreadful week across the board, especially on Friday. Nearly everything ended up lower, with some big drops in my larger holdings. That cost £5,680 and widened the deficit between cost and value to £12,606 with total portfolio value dropping to £118,402.

Biggest faller was my 2nd largest holding CAML:Central Asia Metals which fell a ridiculous 12% given the rise in the price of the metals they sell. Fortunately they are still 32% up, but I really think they should be selling for £1 a share more than they are. 

HUM:Hummingbird Resources has been a disaster from the word go, and dropped another 10% this week to go 42% down. The price of gold hasn't dropped much since I bought them, but the share price is being hammered.

DDDD:4D Pharma were meant to climb on the promise of their Nasdaq listing and potential re-rate. That's why I bought a load more, but this week they dropped 9% and I'm only just breaking even on my holding, and with the trading pot back in the red.

FXPO:Ferrexpo has been on an amazing roll recently, but pulled back by 8% this week. I'm not too bothered as they are still 85% up and have paid out 10% dividend based n my original purchase price.

IES:Invinity Energy have been relatively stable recently but dropped 6% this week, presumably due to lack of news and general market sentiment.

TLOU:Tlou Energy have also been quiet on the news front and drifted 5% lower this week.

OPTI:Optibiotix only fell 3%, but that's 2p and accounts for around half the losses for the week.

There was only one share that climbed by more than 5% and so Share of the Week goes to APAX:Apax Global Alpha which rose 6% and is now 44% up.




That downwards pattern has been going a worryingly long time now.




Quite a sudden dip below the trend line is very concerning.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 30 of year 6




Weekly Change
Cash £70.69

+£0
Portfolio cost £63,391.43
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £57,687.13 (-9.0%) -£1,965.99
Potential profits £10,521.82
-£270.10
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £1,015.43
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £142.88 (4.1%) -£4.93
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £21,442.04
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £336.60     (9.7%) -£1.16
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Compound performance 54%
+0%


Although big losses in value this week, potential profit wasn't hit too hard as JLP:Jubilee Metals actually increased 2%, but most of the DDDD:4D Pharma profits were wiped out which negated the rise in JLP.




Same shape as the combined chart.




As with the combined chart, we're below the trend line now.

The SIPP looks like this after week 274 overall and week 14 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £228.20
+£1.00
Portfolio cost £64,705.18
+£610.06
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£58,360.34 (-9.8%) -£3,541.43
Potential profits £4,828.65
-£2,124.34
Yr 6 Dividends £419.17
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £3,175.21
+£611.07
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,096.96 (32.8%) +£119.30
Total Dividends £2,486.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £18,634.65
+£611.07
Average monthly cash profit £323.42 (9.7%) +£8.52
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 51%
+2%

I've been thinking about my magic formula holding in ITV:ITV for a while now. One of the four ranking criteria that qualified ITV for purchase is the dividend yield, but their dividend is still suspended so they actually shouldn't have qualified for purchase in the first place. As I wanted to placate my ire at OPTI:Optibiotix dropping in price yet again by buying some more, I decided to expel ITV from the magic formula and bank the profits.

I sold my 1,439 shares at 113.939p after buying them at 69.4659p and made £611.07 (60.1%) profit, liberating £1,627 to buy 3,061 OPTI shares at 52,75p costing £1,626.63. That made me feel instantly better, if not a little guilty that I hadn't replaced ITV with another magic formula share. It's only about 4 weeks before I get my next pension transfer, so hopefully I'll be disciplined enough to spend that on magic formula shares.




A steeper drop than the ISA as a lot of shares got hammered in this account.




Ouch! That's a determined dip way below the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 240 overall and week 32 of year 5




Weekly Change
Cash £249.58
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,364.43
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,806.79 (-26.6%) -£173.29
Potential profits £0
-£68.52
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £631.65
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £87.19 (44.2%) -£2.81
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £918.02
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £17.66     (9.0%) -£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

All potential profits wiped out and over £100 deepening losses after that. White a reversal of recent weeks.




All last week's gains are gone, plus some more.




Significant shift below the trend line

I'm feeling a bit jaded as I really thought OPTI:Optibiotix would fly this spring, but here's nothing happening that suggests it will. I'm still buying more as I'm still convinced in the long term future, but how many times do I have to write about sitting at a loss before we re-rate and hold that share price higher. I just have to steel myself and continue counting the days.

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