Saturday, 5 June 2021

Week 303 Review - Change of guard for the magic formula

A pretty steady week, helped massively by a 3p climb in OPTI:Optibiotix and cashing in my magic formula profits. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £3,395 to £25,821 and total portfolio value went up to £119,655.

Biggest loser was JLP:Jubilee Metals again as no news causes much profit taking. It fell another 33% of my purchase price this week but is still 299% up.

The only other bad performer was a new purchase in my SIPP. PLUS:Plus500 came out right at the top of my share ranking spreadsheet so I bought some, but the combination of an inexplicable drop and spread and commission meant it fell 6% this week.

Share of the Week is my old favourite OPTI:Optibiotix, which climbed 5% and added just over £4,500. It's still 20% down and I still hope for news every morning that will see us higher.




A nice tick up




Somewhat relieved to have reversed the recent horrible drop - just hope it lasts

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 43 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £40.35

+£0
Portfolio cost £70,691.67
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £57,649.84 (-18.4%) +£1,923.27
Potential profits £6,474.08
-£700.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £6,218.52
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £622.89 (17.0%) -£14.83
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £26,645.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £396.41 (10.8%) -£1.31
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 63%
+0%

A great improvement in value despite JLP:Jubilee Metals knocking £700 off the potential profits. It seems like ages since a good week for OPTI:Optibiotix, and it's a welcome sight. Long term performance still comfortably above target and will be by the end of year 6 even if I don't sell anything else, and year 6 performance guaranteed 14.1% unless something like MTFB:Motif Bio goes properly bust.




Still right between the red and orange lines




Will this be a reversal in fortunes or a brief blip?

The SIPP looks like this after week 287 overall and week 27 of year 6.
    



Weekly Change
Cash £518.42
+£162.71
Portfolio cost £71,592.34
+£1,008.17
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£59,699.29 (-16.6%) +£1,445.99
Potential profits £3,061.71
-£843.98
Yr 6 Dividends £874.51
+£280.00
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £6,186.00
+£890.89
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,117.07 (30.6%) +£152.19
Total Dividends £2,941.59
+£280.00
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £21,645.44
+£890.89
Average monthly cash profit £360.35 (9.9%) +£16.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 55% +3%


A rather busy week. First of all there was a lovely £280 dividend from CAML:Central Asia Metals, then I sold APAX:Apax Global Alpha for 193.95p making £324.94 (31.7%) profit and POLR:Polar Capital Holdings for 801.3333p making £565.94 (55.8%) profit, as both were up for 12 month review and there were companies in my magic formula ranking higher than them.

The sale boosted my long term performance to 9.9% so only just below target, and year 6 performance is amazing 6 months into the year. I doubt I'll keep it up, but even if I don't sell another thing it will be 16.7% so well above target.

I used the proceeds from the sales to buy 3 new magic formula shares

Top of the ranking is now PLUS:Plus500 which I almost bought last time and wish I had. I think they were cheap because of concerns new regulations for letting people buy CFDs would hammer their profits. That hasn't happened, and they continue to be very cheap on a P/E ratio of 4.5, dividend yield of 8.29%, very high ROCE and virtually no debt. There's a big share buy-back programme at the moment and the share price has been pretty volatile, but I'm hopeful when I do the 12 month review it will be higher than this. I bought 63 shares at 1570.903p costing £1,001.62. 

Next purchase was FXPO:Ferrexpo. I was scared out of them by Russian troops building up on the Ukraine border, and happy to have banked profit. Now I'm back in again because despite recent rises, they are still number 2 in my ranking. I bought 226 shares at 441.3758p costing £1,014.45.

Finally I bought some more gold mine shares, with 58 shares of POLY:Polymetal at 1710.25p costing £1,003.90. Hopefully the gold price will continue to climb, especially as next on my list is CEY:Centamin, so I'm considering sacrificing a few CAML:Central Asia Metals shares to get back into that, as the tailings dam leak last year shows that even the best run mining company can have a disaster, so diversification is important even though I really like that company.




Still over half way up to the red line




The trend line is in danger of being flat in a few weeks

The trading account looks like this after week 253 overall and week 45 of year 5.
    



Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,487.75 (-37.3%) +£26.67
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £651.51
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £63.91 (32.3%) -£1.45
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £17.09 (8.6%) -£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

Another nice tick upwards, but a long way to go before I can sell anything.




Has the rot stopped?




I need about £400 improvement to get above the trend line before it flattens.

Very late posting this week - a week late in fact!

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