Saturday, 19 February 2022

Week 341 Review - Flat(ish) but finished in the red

Yet another week in the red, although I would have been in the black if I hadn't taken some profits, and as the deficit between cost and value only widened by £78 I think it's best classed as a flat week. The deficit now stands at £57,380 and total portfolio value is £99,222.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a dreadful week, giving back half of last week's gains and dropping 37% of my purchase price. Hopefully that was just profit taking and we can get it back next week.

ASHM:Ashmore Group was a new share I bought after selling PAF:Pan African Resources. My plan is to buy back into PAF when my pension transfer arrives, but I wanted to get ASHM before the dividend and there wouldn't have been time if I'd waited. It didn't turn out too well as PAF continued upwards as the price of gold surged, whereas ASHM lost 6% as it dropped nearly every day since I bought it.

TLOU:Tlou Energy also fell 6%. I don't know why this has gone so low, as it's doing everything right on the ground. I think once construction of the power lines starts then maybe sentiment will improve.

BLU:Blue Star Capital continues to yo-yo and this week climbed 6% and is only 38% down.

Blackrock World Gold Fund also climbed 6% and has gone 3% into the green. iShares Physical Gold has also move into profit, which is more than I can say for most of my gold mines.

Share of the week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which for no apparent reason climbed 25% and my holding went onto profit. Given OPTI:Optibiotix own a large number of shares, it's frankly unbelievable that they didn't rise a penny this week.




Looking pretty flat.




Still below the trend line

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 29 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £29.55

+£0
Portfolio cost £72,195.21
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £45,904.90 (-36.4%) -£182.87
Potential profits £2,329.69
-£285.60
Yr 7 Dividends £22.16
+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales £3,664.29
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit £547.49 (14.9%) -£19.55
Total Dividends £1,365.31
+£0
Total Profit from sales £27,788.23
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £366.61
(9.9%) -£1.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 65%
+0%


Potential profits dropped by £285 thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals, but it would have been more if SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics hadn't gone £34 into profit. The drop in portfolio value was pretty negligible, but a hit to the morale as long-term performance dips beneath 10%.




The flattest few weeks for a long time




Running parallel to the trend line, but unfortunately still below it.

The SIPP looks like this after week 325 overall and week 13 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £211.86
+£144.72
Portfolio cost £81,533.18
-£1.40
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£52,002.18 (-36.2%) +£76.76
Potential profits £148.30
+£30.11
Yr 7 Dividends £81.54
+£0
Yr 7 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales £524.53
+£143.49
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit £185.18 (4.4%) +£36.32
Total Dividends £3,285.93
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,249.16
+£143.49
Average monthly cash profit £355.50 (8.5%) +£0.82
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 53%
+0%

I sold my PAF:Pan African Resources shares because I foolishly believed the price of gold had spiked, but it carried on rising as did their share price. It doesn't really matter because I sold my shares at 19.3375p having paid 16.4936p to make £143.50 (14.5%) profit. My target for magic formula shares is 10% plus a dividend, and the £41 dividend from December takes the overall return to 18% in just a few months.

I wanted to get back into ASHM:Ashmore Group before their dividend ex-date on 3rd March. I bought 358 shares at 278.8977p costing £1,015.39 with commission and stamp duty. I actually sold my original holding for £104 loss because I had a panic over their exposure to Evergrande which looked like they were going bust. Since then the price has dropped 70p so I think that risk is priced in, and Evergrande got a bail-out and may continue to be bailed out given the impact of them going bust. I think a P/E ratio of 7.5 gives this potential to double over the next 12 months if the Evergrande issue blows over. It is a risk, and the combination of spread and further drops mean these are already 6% down so it's not an auspicious start. I can only hope there's some buying on the run up to dividend day.

The sale improved year 7 performance a bit, but barely had any impact on long term performance at all, with just 82p added to my average monthly profit.

Potential profits actually increased despite the sale. This was thanks to SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics going £128 into profit, Blackrock World Gold going £3 into profit, and iShares Physical Gold going £17 into profit.




Same as the other charts




Just on the trend line is better than below it.

The trading account looks like this after week 291 overall and week 31 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £814.55 (-65.7%) +£26.51
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Profit £0.00
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £0.00 (0%) +£0
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £14.86 (7.5%) -£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)


An increase for the second week in a row, despite DDDD:4D Pharma falling further. This account is still doomed to be in the red for years though.




Will this last for more than 2 weeks?




Above the trend line for the first time in a while

I should be able to apply for my pension transfer next week. I think it will be £2,100, and my plan is still to buy back into PAF:Pan African Resources with £1,000, but only once they have dropped back a bit. The rest of the balance will go on CAML:Central Asia Metals which I wish I could get now while they're cheaper than when I last sold them. If PAF doesn't drop back, then there are other magic formula shares to look at. 

APAX:Apax Global Alpha went on an amazing run after I sold them for £324 profit, as did POLR:Polar Capital Holdings after I sold for £565 profit, but both have dropped back to only a little above what I sold them for, so I may go back to them. WHR:Warehouse REIT are now cheaper than when I sold them and are next on the list. All pay great dividends and sit near the top of my magic formula rankings. It will take a few weeks for the transfer to come through so I'll watch all these closely.

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