Sunday, 3 April 2022

Week 347 Review - Dreadful week but massive Optibiotix dividend boosts morale

In terms of share price performance this week was utterly terrible. Some recent recoveries were obliterated with huge drops and the deficit between cost and value widened by £8,000 to £74,805. Fortunately the value of the shares dividend from OPTI:Optibiotix spinning off PBX:Probiotix meant the portfolio value increased to £105,172.

The biggest loser was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics after utterly dreadful interim results. They were worse than utterly dreadful, they were catastrophic. The problem wasn't necessarily just that sales of their AxisBiotix were so pitiful, but the expectations that had been built up that they were much better. As a result the share price collapsed by 34% plunging my holding from small profit to big loss.

Next disaster was the final results for DDDD:4D Pharma. No surprises here - we know there is no income and we know they have spent big, but despite this being known, the share price plummeted by 9% in my ISA and 12% of purchase price in my SIPP to wipe out all the gains following the great Oncology trial results.

I couldn't resist being one of the first people to trade PBX:Probiotix Health after their launch, so I put £350 into my AJ Bell SIPP and bought 2,075 shares at 21.2p costing £449.85. Needless to say with such a small amount, my holding is down 6% on commission and spread.

IQE:IQE continued to fall after rubbish results and lost another 5% this week to go 75% down and remove any hope of being able to sell them for years.

OPTI:Optibiotix also slipped 5% and that 3p drop made up a big chunk of this week's losses. We'd better get some good news soon as I'm fed up of these massive losses. I'm down nearly half of my investment value so it's no wonder things look so bad on my charts.

There was a little good news with FXPO:Ferrexpo climbing 7% and POLY:Polymetal climbing 9% as it increasingly looks like the war in Ukraine isn't impacting the companies as severely as initially thought. That could reverse very quickly though.


Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals which has been slipping recently but climbed 11% of my purchase price this week. I'm hoping we'll see a gradual rise from these levels.




That looks great doesn't it - until you see that the value only went up half as much as the cost. We are back above the injection line now, which is brilliant.




That's more of a realistic picture. Not the worst deficit ever but not far from it and well below the trend line.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 35 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £25.80

+£0
Portfolio cost £82,598.82
+£10,403.61
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £47,457.87 (-42.5%) -£3,554.45
Potential profits £2,035.29
+£100.00
Yr 7 Dividends £10,425.77
+£10,403.61
Yr 7 Profit from sales £3,664.29
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit £1,741.23 (47.2%) +£1,274.73
Total Dividends £11,768.92
+£10,403.61
Total Profit from sales £27,788.23
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £490.15
(13.3%) +£128.88
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 89%
+24%


Massive drop in value if you take away the £10,403 dividend. I've accounted for the free PBX:Probiotix shares as a cash dividend that I then re-invest in the shares at IPO price of 21p. In the ISA and share accounts I end up with 49,541 shares worth £10,403 which does wonders for my long term performance taking it to 13.3%. I think this is a better way of accounting for the share dividend that having it as a zero cost share, as there would be no way to monitor the percentage value increase or decrease, and it has been described as a dividend.




Back above injection line.




Well below trend line once again

The SIPP looks like this after week 331 overall and week 19 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £50.46
-£82.67
Portfolio cost £94,670.00
+£10,893.57
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£56,558.54 (-40.3%) -£4,350.18
Potential profits £58.59
-£56.22
Yr 7 Dividends £10,557.68
+£10,461.11
Yr 7 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales £297.22
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit £2,460.58 (56.1%) +£2,381.72
Total Dividends £13,762.07
+£10,461.11
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,021.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £483.02 (11.0%) +£135.90
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 70%
+19%

This one is more complicated because of the cash injection and purchase of PBX:Probiotix shares in addition to the 49,732 I'm due as the dividend. Long term performance increased to 11% but potential profits dropped £56 which is all the SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics losses.




Same story as the ISA




We were above the trend line so briefly and now well below it.

The trading account looks like this after week 297 overall and week 37 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £820.60 (-65.4%) -£95.84
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Profit £0.00
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £0.00 (0%) +£0
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £14.56 (7.4%) -£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

Massive drop for DDDD:4D Pharma saw a £95 fall in value and things are looking bleak again




The short rise has been reversed




Amazingly still above the trend line

So a mixed bag of a week. The PBX:Probiotix allocation is provisional as they haven't turned up in my account yet, but if I've done my sums right then they should be accurate. I'm certain OPTI:Optibiotix will continue to suffer until there is positive news on SweetBiotix. The recent research not from Cenkos values the company at 4 times the current share price. That would put me £100k in profit, so I really hope it comes to pass.

Meanwhile I got Covid this morning so writing this with a headache and streaming nose and sore throat. I think it's time for bed...

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