Sunday, 11 December 2022

Week 383 Review - Catastrophic week obliterating recent gains and stopping out three positions

Just when I thought things were starting to recover and a Santa rally was on the way, one of the worst weeks ever as OPTI:Optibiotix do a discounted share subscription to a big investor and the share price plummets below it. Also general market misery meant three of my magic formula virtual stop-losses triggered and I had to sell. The deficit between cost and value widened by an eye-watering £10,399 to £115,269 and the value dropped to £66,999. This is the worst it has ever been. Merry Christmas!

OPTI:Optibiotix fell 4.5p to a bid price of 14.5p which contributed over £9,000 of the losses this week. It was an 8% drop in my ISA and SIPP, but a 23% drop in my trading holdings which I bought for around 19p. I can't believe a company that still looks so promising could have been such a dreadful investment.

Some of my magic formula shares dropped enough to trigger my virtual stop losses, so AJB:AJBell, PLUS:Plus500 and EMG:Man Group probably fell over 5% or thereabouts, but I don't record the weekly drop if I sell them. More detail in the SIPP review.

Share of the Week was one of my stinkers, SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy, which announced that their power storage facility has had the green light to proceed. I still think they'll go bust.




Desperate




Biggest ever deficit and back on the downward trend line

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 19 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash £52.68

+£0
Portfolio cost £82,003.25
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £26,182.80 (-68.1%) -£4,742.24
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 8 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 8 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales -£995.63
+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit -£229.63 (-6.2%) +£12.76
Total Dividends £11,768.92
+£0
Total Interest £0.03
+£0
Total Profit from sales £27,098.43
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £435.93
(11.8%) -£1.14
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 87% +0%

Not much happened here except OPTI:Optibiotix collapsing and contributing to the portfolio losing £4,742 in value




Very depressing




Back on the trend line and biggest ever deficit

The SIPP looks like this after week 367 overall and week 3 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash £545.46
+£450.52
Portfolio cost £98,416.47
-£356.11
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£40,207.44 (-59.1%) -£5,902.32
Potential profits £259.67
-£552.20
Yr 8 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 8 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales £94.41
+£94.41
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit £136.37 (2.8%) +£136.37
Total Dividends £14,142.78
+£0
Total Interest £0.25
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,528.16
+£94.41
Average monthly cash profit £397.61 (8.1%) +£0.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57% +0%

Rather a lot happened here.

First victim of my virtual stop loss rule was EMG:Man Group which went past 15% loss. I was too slow to sell NUM:Numis Corp and am now stuck with it at 34% loss, so wasn't hanging about with EMG. I sold my 371 shares at 207.45p after buying them at 236.7921p so made a loss of £134.76 (15%), but freed up £759 to re-invest.

I bought 296 shares in APAX:Apax Global Alpha at 182.332p costing £549.65. Adding these to my original holding takes it to the magic formula ideal cost of £1,063 at an average of 183.7268p. They are 5th in my new magic formula ranking system, so I figured it was right to get them up to the same level as the others. They are currently 4% down, but only 2% if you include the dividend.

The next victim of my stop loss rule was PLUS:Plus500 which was in profit, but dropped more than 10% from its high. I sold my 63 shares at 1673p after paying 1570.903p and made £97.12 (9.5%) profit. If you include dividends I made 17% profit. These are still 3rd on my magic formula ranking, so if there's a dip in price I may buy back.

Instead I invested in 69 shares of ANTO:Antofagasta at 1430.125p costing £1,003.67. They are 8th in my magic formula ranking and I'm hoping commodities will have a bit of a bounce as China drops Covid lockdowns. The only companies above them in the ranking are BHP:BHP Group which I'm avoiding due to the potential of massive fines for their burst dam disaster a few years ago, and ASHM:Ashmore Group which are heavily into Evergrande bonds, with the ongoing risk they will go bankrupt and default.

My third stop loss was sadly AJB:AJ Bell which I really liked, but they dropped below the 10% cut-off so I sold my 325 shares at 356.6568p after paying 307.1359 and made £132.05 (13.4%) profit. You can see there is a problem with this approach. I am making 15% losses on anything that drops below the cut-off, but if I'm making less than 15% profit on the ones that actually increase in value, then given there are fewer than the ones that lose, I'm never going to make any money. I could just put it down to a blip due to a really crappy market. We'll see how it pans out. I'm shocked to be seeing 10% swings in FTSE companies when you only expect that on AIM.

I used the proceeds of the sale to buy 17 shares in RIO:Rio Tinto at 5793.51p costing £1,001.77. These are only 19th in my magic formula rankings, but I bought them for the same reason I went for ANTO:Antofagasta, that China is coming out of lockdown. My rule is that I can buy any magic formula share as long as it's in the top 30, but I'll never go lower than 30th (until I do).

So my net profit from the sales was £94 and I re-invested £356 less than before, so cash is up by £450. I'm also in positive territory for year 8 which is nice, but portfolio value dropped by nearly £6,000 and potential profits by £554 as now CAML:Central Asia Metals is the only share left in the black.

As part of selling EMG:Man Group I also changed my monthly investment plan, so this coming week I'll get shares in III:3i Group which is 4th in my magic formula ranking.




Not quite lowest, but the figures fib slightly as I've added more money since I was last at this level.




That's more of an accurate picture. Biggest ever deficit and back on the dropping trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 333 overall and week 21 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £0.10
+£0
Portfolio cost £1,849.21
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £609.47 (-67.0%) -£111.11
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 7 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 7 Interests £0.01
+£0
Year 7 Profit -£71.73
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit -£14.80 (-9.6%) +£0.74
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Interest £0.01
+£0
Profit from sales £154.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £2.80 (1.8%) -£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

I could have sold OPTI:Optibitix for a profit a few weeks ago, and now it's sat on a 28% loss. Absolute bloody disaster. That drop cost £111 and one of the biggest weekly drops in this account, which is saying something when all but one of the shares are suspended!




Three months of gradual climbing obliterated in one week.




I knew it was too good to be true that I'd stay above a rising trend line. 

I can't emphasise just how pissed off I am. My portfolio has been steadily losing value for nearly two years, and everything I touch turns to shit. I finally get a couple of profitable magic formula shares and they plunge 10% in a few weeks. Every time there's a chink of light with OPTI:Optibiotix something comes along to smash it. Meanwhile the PBX:Probiotix lock-in is about to come to an end, and there's still been no news to lift the share price. Not only will I lose thousands in the value of my dividend when half the disgruntled ex-OPTI holders sell on day one, but the £1,500 I invested in anticipation of selling at a profit before the lock-in ended will be wiped out.

The only thing that could make me more depressed this Christmas would be DDDD:4D Pharma announcing they can't find a buyer and have gone bust, and I reckon there's a reasonable chance that's going to happen.

I'm going to get a beer...

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