Saturday, 4 November 2023

Week 430 Review - A great week ruined by big drops for Optibiotix and Jubilee Metals

Deeply upsetting that over the best couple of days for a long time across my portfolio, big drops in both OPTI:Optibiotix and JLP:Jubilee Metals caused the deficit between cost and value to widen by £7,184 to £82,627 and portfolio value fell to £118,457.

Worst performer was OPTI:Optibiotix which dropped 3p and 9%. I guess after last week's 25% rise it's not a huge surprise, but was so disappointing when everything else was doing so well.

BLU:Blue Star Capital is highly volatile and gave up the 6% rise from last week.

POLY:Polymetal was a surprise, dropping by 6% when other gold miners did well.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is one of my biggest holdings, so a 5% drop this week continues their inexplicable fall. I took the opportunity to buy some more.

Now for the very extensive good news.

BARC:Barclays recovered from last week's 11% drop by climbing 5%, but they are still 18% down.

EDV:Endeavour Mining has been a bit dreadful recently, but also climbed 5% and leaves my recent purchases 9% up.

GAW:Games Workshop slumped recently from their price a few months ago, but a 5% climb this week put my holding 7% up. It's a long way back to the 20% gains I had before their stellar results though.

IGG:IG Group have been drifting horribly, and I still don't understand why. This week they went up 6% but are still 26% down.

IES:Invinity Energy usually needs news to shift the price up, but this week climbed 6% without any. They are still an eye-watering 83% down, but given I thought they would go bust I guess it's a bonus they still exist.

ASHM:Ashmore Group have been drifting for a long time, but bounced back 7% this week. They are 36% down so a long way to go to break even.

CEY:Centamin was my best gold mine this week, climbing 8% but still 27% down.

PAGE:Page Group plummeted after results a few weeks ago, but fought back 12% this week and are now only 12% down. I still have these in my dealing account and want them to get into profit before I bed and ISA them.

PSN:Persimmon have also been really struggling lately, but went up 13% this week and are now 24% down.

WHR:Warehouse REIT have also been really bad lately, but they bounced back 15% and are now 27% down.

Share of the Week is CWR:Ceres Power which has been my worst timed purchase ever, as it has crashed every week since. This week it clawed back 18% of those losses but is still 22% down. Hopefully this will continue, but it's going to take news of their Chinese joint venture being approved to get any meaningful recovery.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 14 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash£142.82-£98.24
Portfolio cost£99,082.34+£599.99
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£57,013.85(-42.5%)-£3,377.57
Potential profits£3,929.21-£873.20
Yr 9 Dividends£121.19+£5.50
Yr 9 Interest£1.59+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£0+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£35.91(0.6%)-£2.57
Total Dividends£12,032.62+£5.50
Total Interest£3.52+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,298.53+£0
Average monthly cash profit£292.94(5.0%)-£0.66
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

I added £150 following a premium bond win, and topped that up with another £350 and transferred £100 dividends from my dealing account to my ISA. That allowed me to buy 11,135 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 5.299p costing £599.99. It reduced my average price in my AJ Bell ISA to 6.96p, and with that holding containing 66,947 shares, if it gets back to 12p like a few months ago I'll be over £3,000 in profit for that holding. I really think it should be back there before Christmas, but I never expected it to fall this low.

Portfolio value gave up almost half last week's gains thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and JLP:Jubilee Metals, and potential profits dropped £873 thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix. A £5 dividend from GAW:Games Workshop was nice, if a tad stingy.


I suppose I should expect a bit of a pull back after last week being so great.


Unfortunately we're going back towards the trend line, but happy to be still above it.

The SIPP looks like this after week 414 overall and week 50 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£352.80
-£160.87
Portfolio cost£99,431.02
+£2,408.21
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£59,700.87(-40.0%)-£3,806.93
Potential profits£4,429.27
-£788.62
Yr 8 Dividends£492.10
+£14.00
Yr 8 Interest£5.22
+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales-£9,597.85
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit-£802.53(-14.2%)+£16.14
Total Dividends£14,634.88
+£14.00
Total Interest£5.47
+£0
Total Profit from sales£10,835.90
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£254.56(4.5%)-£0.65
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance36%-1%

I had my £2,000 pension transfer to invest this week, so immediately bought 733 shares in CAML:Central Asia Metals at 163.5118p and costing £1,210.49. I'll keep buying more of these while they remain so cheap, as they have no debt, bucket loads of cash, and a massive dividend.

I managed to find a new source of stats for my magic formula spreadsheet, and whacked in the data for the top 170 and ranked them. I had to change a few of the stats I use, but I think they still give a similar impression of the company. I still use dividend yield as the first ranking criteria, but I had to change ROCE to return on investment, and had to change debt to pre-tax profits ratio to debt to equity ratio. Not ideal but still a good impression of the sustainability of their debt. The 3 year growth had to change to 5 year growth, which still gives a good idea of how they are growing, although misses recent good performance if they had a few bad years before that.

When I ranked my top 100 it made quite a few changes, but by far the top company was PLUS:Plus 500 so I bought 69 shares at 1428.6949p costing £997.75. I already hold these, but I think increasing my holding in some of the companies I already know well is better then trying new ones.

SQZ:Serica Energy came 2nd, but I'm not investing in oil companies. IPX:Impax Asset Management Group were 3rd, so I may take a look at those. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings is 4th, and one I have held in the past. HL.:Hargreaves Lansdown is 5th and may be worth a look as I do have an account with them.

Some of my existing holdings are still in the top 10, with III:3i Group 6th and PAGE:Page Group 8th. GAW:Games Workshop is 11th. The others are less impressive, with IGG:IG Group Holdings 22nd and RIO:Rio Tinto 23rd, but both are in the top 30 which is my criteria for keeping them.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is 34th, which isn't too bad, PSN:Persimmon is 43rd, UKW:Greencoat UK Wind 44th, CEY:Centamin 46th, ANTO:Antofagasta 53rd, APAX:Apax Global Alpha 61st, ASHM:Ashmore Group 66th, CAPD:Capital 71st, FXPO:Ferrecpo 79th, WHR:Warehouse REIT 134th and most disappointingly EDV:Endeavour Mining 145th.  

It means I should be selling the companies outside the top 30 and replacing them with companies higher up the ranking, but all of them are making a loss. I will flag them for removal should an opportunity arise.

I also bought 3,586 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals in my AJ Bell account with some dividend money. I paid 5.299p and they cost £199.97. I don't usually like buying for less than £500 because of the commission, but as I'm adding to my existing holding, the sell commission will be shared and I'm hoping they will go up sharply soon.

I got a £14 dividend from PSN:Persimmon, and value and potential profits are down for the same reasons as the ISA.


Sad to see the green line point down when the red and orange point up.


Sharp drop towards the trend line

The trading account looks like this after week 380 overall and week 16 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£281.80
+£0
Portfolio cost£1,794.51
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£965.23(-46.2%)-£0.44
Potential profits£0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends£8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest£0
+£0
Year 8 Profit£283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£79.23(+53.0%)-£5.28
Dividends£68.66
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£6.59(-4.4%)+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

BARC:Barclays went up really well but JLP:Jubilee Metals went down, so they cancelled each other out and I lost 44p.


Nice to at least stop the rot.


Way below the trend line which will start to flatten unless I can get back up above it.

What makes this week even more depressing is that the drop in OPTI:Optibiotix came on the back of an encouraging commercial update. Every time I think things are turning round, the price drops yet again, and for my biggest holdings to drop significantly in such a good week is very frustrating.

No blog for the next couple of weeks as I'll be on hols but will aim to get a snapshot each week so I don't lose any stats and can do a bumper catch-up when I get back.

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