Saturday, 28 October 2023

Week 429 Review - One of the best weeks ever.

One of the best ever weeks, with lots of gains across the portfolio, and 25% increases in both OPTI:Optibiotix and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics narrowed the gap between cost and value by £17,081 to £75,442 and total portfolio value increased to £122,893.

The worst performer was BARC:Barclays, in a week when all the banks got hammered. They dropped by 11% and left my trading account in a right mess.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 10%, I suspect as people took profits following the recent rises. I'd hoped they would settle down but looks like they will drift until the next news.

EDV:Endeavour Mining fell 6% which was a surprise given the price of gold has held up during the week. The drop wiped out all of last weeks gains. I'm of a mind to buy some more of these with my pension transfer. If I add another £1,000 that would take my total holding to £2,500 and I could switch my monthly investment to CEY:Centamin which is likely to stay cheaper for longer.

POLY:Polymetal also had a bad week, dropping 5%.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy fell 5% but that's not a surprise as it wobbles on the brink of destitution.

Better news for one of my larger holdings CAML:Cental Asia Metals, which climbed 5%. I'm definitely using some of my pension here and build my position towards £10k over time. If JLP:Jubilee Metals ever sorts itself out I'll re-invest profits here.

BLU:Blue Star Capital is up and down like a yo-yo and went up 6% this week.

RIO:Rio Tinto climbed 6%, possibly after positive news about a new joint venture.

PLUS:Plus 500 had a great trading update and went up 10%, but my holding is still 25% down. They have massive amounts of spare cash so I'm hoping for a special dividend.

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 6.5p which accounts for the vast majority of this week's rise, My most expensive holding bought in the 90p range is still down by 64%, but my best holding bought for 9.55p is up by 235%. I could cash in over £8,000 profit if I sold my cheaper shares, but I'm not going to.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, which also went up 25% and wins the prize because I'm so happy about the £5k premium bonds I sold to invest in SBTX. That holding is up by 24% after being 1% down last week, and they are making £1,185 potential profit. My other holdings are losing £700, so it means I'm actually up overall on this company. I'd like to think it could climb another 10p before settling, but I won't take profits as this is a long term investment.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 13 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash£241.06-£3.14
Portfolio cost£98,482.35+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£59,791.43(-39.3%)+£8,502.03
Potential profits£4,802.41+£2,655.30
Yr 9 Dividends£115.69+£0
Yr 9 Interest£1.59+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£0+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£38.48(0.7%)-£1.24
Total Dividends£12,027.12+£0
Total Interest£3.52+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,298.53+£0
Average monthly cash profit£293.60(5.0%)-£0.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

Cash dropped due to AJ Bell fees, there's a massive increase in value, and potential profits up thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. My only other profitable share is GAW:Games Workshop, which went up 1%. Long term returns are at 5% which is half my target. I need to make about £28,000 profit to get back to my 10% target. 


That's almost halved the gap between injection amount and value. 


That's more like it. A comfortable gap above the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 413 overall and week 49 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£513.67
+£92.31
Portfolio cost£97,022.81
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£61,099.59(-37.0%)+£8,643.83
Potential profits£5,217.89
+£1,610.35
Yr 8 Dividends£478.10
+£0
Yr 8 Interest£5.22
+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales-£9,597.85
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit-£818.67(-14.9%)+£16.93
Total Dividends£14,620.88
+£0
Total Interest£5.47
+£0
Total Profit from sales£10,835.90
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£255.21(4.7%)-£0.63
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance37%+0%

Cash went up thanks to a tax rebate, reduced slightly by AJ Bell fees. Similar story to the ISA, with value up by £8,643, but less of a contribution from SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics as my holding is much smaller. Potential profits up by £1,610 all thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix because my other profitable shares both dropped in value. Long term performance is worse here than my ISA so I'll need even more profits to get to 10%.


So close to the injection line!


Even higher above the trend line than the ISA, but will I ever get back to break even?

The trading account looks like this after week 379 overall and week 15 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£281.80
+£0
Portfolio cost£1,794.51
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£965.67(-46.2%)-£64.48
Potential profits£0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends£8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest£0
+£0
Year 8 Profit£283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£84.51(+56.5%)-£6.04
Dividends£68.66
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£6.61(-4.4%)+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

In contrast to the good news on my other accounts, this one was a disaster, with BARC:Barclays falling 11% after their results. I was so close to getting into profit just a few weeks ago, but now they are 23% down. JLP:Jubilee Metals also fell 4% this week, so a big £64 loss overall.


That is a very sad sight.


The trend line is still upwards, but will flatten very quickly if I can't make up about £250 to get back on it.

We were told OPTI:Optibiotix is close to signing a deal on the microbiome modulators back in August, the assumption being the people who need to sign it were on holiday, and we would get news in September. It's now nearly November and we've heard nothing, so I do start to worry there's a hitch. As far as I'm aware, if this contract isn't signed then I don't think there are any others in the pipeline, and if we want to see the share price re-rate, there has to be movement on the 2nd generation products, as they hold promise of significantly greater revenue than our 1st generation products.

There's also been silence from PBX:Probiotix. I'm gutted that we're still not incorporated into VSL, as I was expecting that a year ago. There's just no sign of any meaningful new markets. Even if there were signs, it's impossible to trade the shares on Aquis so unless they list on AIM I can't see the share price moving. 5p is a crazy price for what we have. We should at least have remained at the IPO price, but it's going to take a 300% rise for me to get back to break even.

So although this has been a great week, I'm still worried that the share prices on my microbiome companies will drift again unless there's news with revenue attached.

The less said about JLP:Jubilee Metals the better!!

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