Saturday, 8 February 2025

Week 496 Review - Small drop in value but some good gains in the SIPP.

A frustrating week where there were more big risers than big fallers, but the fallers were my biggest holdings and cancelled out the risers. The deficit between cost and value widened by £533 to £126,184 and the deficit between injection amount and value is now £53,988, with portfolio value at £113,424.

The biggest faller was FXPO:Ferrexpo, which is being taken to court in Ukraine and could be fined billions. They dropped 15% and are now 80% down, so even ending the war may not cause them to get back into profit.

CWR:Ceres Power had yet another bad week, falling 7% to go 34% down.

BPM:BP Marsh & Partners wasn't such a great magic formula buy, falling 6% to go 10% down already.

FOUR:4imprint had recently gone into profit, but fell 5% this week and are now only 5% up.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is my 2nd largest holding and fell 5% after placing another 52 million shares. However, I believe the fall will be short lived and wish I could add more, as the improved quality feed they have bought with the raise will make up for all the lost copper production and mean they will exceed guidance. When that happens I believe there will be a substantial re-rate upwards.

TLOU:Tlou Energy went up a whopping 27% this week, but I've removed it from my Share of the Week contest as it's subject to currency fluctuations and I'm not even sure how easily I could sell them if I wanted to.

ARBB:Arbuthnot Banking has been sliding since I bought them, but a 5% increase this week means they are only 10% down. They have slipped to 128th on my magic formula ranking, so I will sell at the earliest possible opportunity.

CAML:Central Asia Metals have been stuck for months now, but went up 5% this week. Still a long way to go to get back into profit though. My ISA holding is 43% down, although my biggest holding in the SIPP is only 7% down.

PAF:Pan African Resources continues with steady progress, and went up another 6% this week. My first holding is now up 142% and I regret selling half of it.

PBX:Probiotix Health snuck up 0.5p which is 7% and helped offset my losses, as this is a big holding.

AFC:AFC Energy reversed the recent trend and went up 8%, but they are still 46% down.

CORE:Solidcore Resources climbed 9% but are still 82% down and I still can't sell them unless they re-list in UK.

ALU:Alumasc Group went up 14% after good results and are now 66% up altogether and are a star magic formula share.

Share of the Week is ATYM:Atalaya Mining, which went up 15% and are now only 10% down. I'm a bit torn what to do with these if they go back into profit, as they are 169th in my magic formula ranking, so I should really sell them. Given CAML:Central Asia Metals are 6th, I should probably buy those instead. Same goes for AAL:Anglo American Mining, which are 323rd. I really shouldn't be owning them. I'm very tempted to sell AAL next week and put it into JLP:Jubilee Metals.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 28 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£60.48-£3.75
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£45,608.84(-60.1%)-£694.50
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£109.23+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.82            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£59.43(0.8%)-£2.80
Total Dividends£12,417.18+£0
Total Interest£7.62+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£257.78(3.6%)-£0.56
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Cash went down by monthly ISA fee and very little else happened other than the drop in value, mainly thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals.


Down we go.


Back on the declining trend line


The SIPP looks like this after week 480 overall and week 12 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£343.04
+£260.56
Portfolio cost£124,853.36
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£67,412.39(-46.0%)+£161.03
Potential profits£4,653.70
+£314.69
Yr 10 Dividends£342.91
+£27.22
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£1,906.90
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£791.78(11.6%)-£67.83
Total Dividends£16,459.56
+£27.22
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,914.84
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£306.48(4.5%)-£0.55
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

Monthly savings were added but the shares will be bought next week so it's still in cash. I had a £27 dividend from AJB:AJ Bell and SIPP fees were taken from cash. Thanks to a good showing from most magic formula shares and less exposure to JLP:Jubilee Metals, the portfolio value went up a bit by £161 and potential profits went up £314.


An unexpected tick upwards.


As with the ISA, we're resting on the trend line which is not ideal.


Hoping if JLP:Jubilee Metals sorts itself out this chart will improve somewhat.

Given the JLP:Jubilee Metals share price only dropped 0.2p despite lots of selling when the placing was announced, I think that was a knee-jerk reaction. When you look at what it enables, they have just paid £2m for $30m worth of material, and have first dibs on more material at the same grade, which is twice the amount of copper as the existing feed. Given they have started processing it already, it's not going to take long to see real revenues, and once JLP is seen as a copper producer and not a Chrome/PGM producer, then I think that's when the re-rate will happen. If not, then I'll still be in deep misery and miles into the red.

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