Friday 21 April 2017

Week 89 Review - Misery and woe

Last week I wrote "Oh unparalleled joy! The green line crashes spectacularly through the red. I don't care how long it stays there - I should frame this and put it on my bedroom wall so I always remember how happy I am right now."

The phrase "I don't care how long it stays there" is the painful one, and clearly bollocks. I did care very deeply, which is why I'm sunk into abject misery today as I look at a portfolio that has lost £2,532 of its value in just 4 trading days. The combined value is now £62,513 so I've also lost the 2 "Woohoo!"s from last week. I'm still £1,291 in the black so it could have been worse, but a lot of my buffer has been used up.

The biggest loser this week was the main reason I was so happy last week. Most of the gains vanished for AMYT:Amryt Pharma as a stampede of profit-taking broke out. This was the first time the price had gone above the reverse takeover price, but the sell-off was extreme and caused a 20% drop in the value of my shares.

The other double-digit loser was IQE:IQE dropping 12%, and as one of my other big holdings costing quite a lot. I rather think this was tree-shake behaviour triggering a whole load of stop-losses set to preserve profits. Interesting that every day this happened, all the forced sales were hoovered up. This demonstrates the danger of stop-losses on a volatile share, although if your timing was good you could get back in 12% cheaper. I bet not many people's timing is that good so I'd rather not risk it.

The other losses were less than 10% but for big shares in my portfolio like OPTI:Optibiotix, KIBO:Kibo Mining and CWR:Ceres Power.

There were no double digit risers to counter the drops. The biggest riser was TLOU:Tlou Energy, and that was only 4%.


I didn't want to see that shape.

The ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£42,964.02
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£41,665.86(-3%)-£2,105.19
Potential profits£4,390.03
-£1,569.02
Yr 2 Dividends£357.10
0
Yr 2 Profit from sales£3,314.79
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£426.53
-£11.85
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost11.9%
Total Dividends£1,025.03
0
Total Profit from sales£7,155.05
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£393.88
-£4.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost11.0%

Crushing loss of £2,105 and £1,569 of this was reduction in potential profits. My attempt to bed and ISA AMYT:Amryt Pharma and JLP:Jubilee Platinum failed again as Hargreaves Lansdown didn't process the order. I may have to contact them, as the last thing I want is to leave the order open and find they've executed at a time of volatility that could be very costly. When I do this, the average monthly performance will improve, but I'll take a hit on paper value which could take me into the red.

I guess I could load the money from my bank account into my ISA for AMYT:Amryt Pharma as it's £1,500, then return the money to my account after the 3 day settling period from the sale. I can't do the same with JLP:Jubilee Platinum as the shares are worth £4,000, which would bust my overdraft. I suppose I could extend the overdraft to allow for it, as it's only 3 days. Last year Hargreaves Lansdown were really quick with bedding into the ISA, so I don't understand why they are so rubbish this year.


Boo hoo hoo hoo hoooooo.

The SIPP looks like this after week 73



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£16,776.69
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£19,506.78(+16.3%)-£403.23
Potential profits£3,499.80
-£263.43
Yr 2 Dividends£0
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales£842.07
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£166.41
-£8.32
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost11.9%
Total Dividends£413.19
+£0
Total Profit from sales£3,191.93
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£208.88
-£2.90
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost14.9%

Nowhere near as bad as the other accounts, but the second week in a row with a decline. Not much else going on.

Worrying - very worrying.

The dreaded trading account looks like this after week 39



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£1,481.98
+£0
Cash£79.63
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£1,341.27(-9.5%)-£24.16
Potential profits£0
+£0
Dividends£0
0
Profit from sales£61.57
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£6.84
-£0.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost5.5%

Could have been a lot worse, with tiny dips in all shares. No chance of flogging KIBO:Kibo Mining to help pay my Visa bill though. At least 5.5% is a better return than I'd get from a savings account - although with 13 weeks to go before this account has been open a year, this figure is projected rather than real.


There's nothing to like with this graph.

I don't think I can blame the calling of the snap election for much of my losses this week. IQE:IQE rely on exchange rates at the moment, so a strengthening  pound is bad for them, but I think the potential growth in revenues will offset the exchange rate issue. The good news is that TW.:Taylor Wimpey came withing a few quid of going into profit. Nearly a year after Brexit the price has almost recovered and are dishing out big dividends.

The drop in AMYT:Amryt Pharma shouldn't have been a surprise really. The drop in OPTI:Optibiotix was a massive surprise. Long term holders with spare cash are overjoyed they can add a load more to their ISAs. Tragically I don't have either the cash or any shares I want to sell, so all I can do is watch.

Most intriguing event this week is the news that AFPO:African Potash have suspended their shares on the NEX Exchange as they have announced their intention to buy out private company Onshore Energy Ltd. How the hell? They have no money - they have to pay the directors salaries in shares! I guess I shouldn't be too bothered. At the moment my shares are utterly worthless so things couldn't get worse. If this causes something interesting to happen then what the hell. The fact that Executive Chair Chris Cleverly is a director and shareholder of Onshore Energy is a bit of a worry though. The news also confirms there will be fundraising to make the purchase and cover existing running costs. I'm unable to be anything other than suspicious of this company and it's directors, so will watch with an air of skeptical cynicism.

Hope next week isn't as horrid as this one...

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