Saturday, 6 January 2018

Week 126 Review - Good start to 2018

The post-Christmas recovery continues, with lots of small rises across the portfolio resulting in an increase of £1,682 in value to £76,528 and a buffer between cost and value of £5,173.

Biggest loser was predictably in my trading account, which appears cursed. After watching LION:Lionsgold drop from 6p to 4.5p I thought I'd found the bottom before purchasing, but now it's 3.25p and I've lost 34% in 3 weeks. The morale of the story - wait for it to bounce back up rather than trying to catch a falling knife! If only I could remember that...

The other reasonably big fall was MTFB:Motif Bio, dropping 6% but on the back of a 16% rise last week. I can see this drifting up and down until news of approval to sell Iclaprim, but there's bound to be a fundraise at some point so let's hope it's after the approval.

Lots of 7% rises this week. CMCL:Caledonia Mining has been increasing steadily after announcing the quarterly dividend. I'm still losing 15% but half the deficit has been made up in the last few weeks, so when it moves it's moving fast.

RED:RedT Energy has been a massive disappointment recently and I'm losing 18%, but a 7% rise this week will be accelerated on news of orders. What this really needs is announcement of a big deal, for example with National Grid or a major wind farm company. Grid storage would need lots and lots of units, and only volume sales will push the company into profit.

WRES:W Resources was a mistake purchase as I've watched my holding diluted to hell over multiple placings, but there may actually be a chance of recovering some of my 44% loss if news of financing comes through. A 7% up-tick this week was in anticipation of that I think.

Share of the Week isn't the biggest riser as it only climbed 4%. OPTI:Optibiotix rose 2p, but thanks to some purchases at 63.8p on Thursday, each penny increase is now worth £518 and it's a rare example of me buying something and getting an immediate increase in value. The rise also reduces my OPTI:Optibiotix loss to just £805 when it was £3,500 a few weeks ago. This means I have a new Nemesis Share, with TRX:Tissue Regenix having tumbled to a £919 loss but heading back in the right direction, and OPTI:Optibiotix is only 3rd worse after JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped to a £887 loss. It would have been even better for OPTI:Optibiotix if I'd not taken the £855 loss on LOOK:Lookers this week and ditched that donkey from the worst performer ranks!




Boing!

Here's the ISA and share portfolio performance



Weekly Change
Cash £10.89
-£25.31
Portfolio cost £44,964.39
-£17.58
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £47.109.00 (4.8%) +£1,084.52
Potential profits £7,637.04
-£511.83
Yr 3 Dividends £34.11
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,104.47
-£27.19
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £220.57 (5.9%) -£7.60
Total Dividends £1,213.16
+£0
Total Profit from sales £7,816.97
-£27.19
Average monthly cash profit £306.29 (8.2%) -£3.53
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

This is complicated! Potential profits are down £511 and most of that is due to selling TLOU:Tlou Energy for £828 profit. So in reality, potential profits from the rest of the portfolio are up by around £300. The profits gained from the TLOU:Tlou Energy sale were negated by the £855 loss getting rid of LOOK:Lookers leaving me with fractionally less than I originally invested. When I re-invested the resulting £3,445 in OPTI:Optobiotix, the cost of the portfolio dropped by £17 compared to what it was before the sales. The subsequent 2p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix went a long way towards the £1,084 rise in value, with contributions from the other 7% risers mentioned in the intro. Cash dropped due to ISA charge and using some for the purchase.

The main thing is - I've ditched LOOK:Lookers and no longer have to look at it's sorry performance in my portfolio any more - huzzah!! I do regret losing TLOU:Tlou Energey though. I'll be watching it like a hawk for a potential re-entry opportunity. Oh - and I have another 5,363 OPTI:Optibiotix shares which makes me want to do a jig of joy.




Note that I forgot to put the increase in portfolio cost onto the graph as few weeks ago, which explains why it looked like the green line didn't cross the red. Now it's been corrected and there was a crossing, but that's behind us now.

The SIPP looks like this after week 110



Weekly Change
Cash £27.69
-£10.97
Portfolio cost £26,007.03
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £29,152.84 (12.1%) +£635.60
Potential profits £4,436.57
+£223.48
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £-15.61 (-0.7%) -£6.38
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £8,925.19
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £381.01 (17.6%) -£3.94
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Another monthly charge reduces my cash and hammers my year 3 performance. This could be interesting as there's nothing I particularly want to sell so could be negative for most of the year. A good rise in potential profits was partly because OPTI:Optibiotix is back in profit in this account - Woohoo! The portfolio isn't far off it's highest ever value, overall performance is still 7% above target and that's all that really matters.




The gap between cost and value is back to a decent width after the Crimbo scare.

Do I really have to look at the trading account after 76 weeks of misery?



Weekly Change
Cash £0.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £345.65
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £228.26 (-34%) -£55.43
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 2 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 2 Profit -£218.50
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit -£39.45 (-137%) +£1.72
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£13.70 (-47.5%) +£0.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

LION:Lionsgold tanked some more. It is massively volatile though, with rises or falls of 6-12% every day. If the crypto madness kicks in again I may yet escape without a horrible loss. I just have to admit I'm not very good at trading - probably for the best that I have this tiny account to prove it.




Good grief!

So an interesting week where I made a tactical sacrifice to ditch a donkey and buy some more of my favourite share. I'm really pleased to have achieved all that without impacting performance, but I do have pangs of regret at losing TLOU:Tlou Energy. However - I'll be back...

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