Wednesday, 31 January 2018

I lied when I said no more Optibiotix

I'm sorry - but what the hell is going on with the OPTI:Optibiotix share price?

It's now almost the lowest since the massive spike from 56p to 97p in November 2015, aside from the very brief dips in December 2016 and August 2017.

Yet here we are with a barrage of great news, and on the cusp of what can only be described as a global health revolution.

Why is it that only a tiny band of dedicated long term holders can see this?

When it dipped below 60p today, that was the final straw. I don't care if I'm overweight by miles in this stock, it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for something truly amazing, and the fact that the wider investing community can't see that is their loss.

I keep trying to work out what I'm missing - and the only circumstances I can envisage to make this fail are that the supplements don't work - but there are peer reviewed papers to say they do. Maybe they'll poison someone? However they have been on sale for a while and all we hear are positive reviews.

I had to take the opportunity to buy below 60p so I found a few shares to sell and free up some cash in my ISA.

First of all I sold a small number of my AMYT:Amryt Pharma shares. I had 33,813 and they were making a small profit, and were 9.4% of my portfolio so earmarked for top-slicing but not until they got to 11.4% of the portfolio value. I just top-sliced early. I sold 5,500 shares at 19.6p making £46.58 (4.5%) profit and liberating £1,066.05. This still leaves me a healthy bunch for the long term, and I will top up if I get the chance to take profits elsewhere.

I sold my last remaining gold mine, CMCL:Caledonia Mining. This is a sound company, but I bought at the wrong time and there have been some difficulties. I'm convinced they will do well eventually, and will keep an eye on them for long term investing as they pay a nice quarterly dividend. I sold all of my 200 shares at 531p making a £223.54 (-17.4%) loss and liberating £1,050.05. It will damage my performance stats but will be worth it.

So, I am delighted to have been able to buy 3,560 OPTI:Optibiotix shares at the completely mental bargain basement price of 59.111p costing £2,116.30.

This takes my total holding in OPTI:Optibiotix to 57,041 costing £38,170 at a weighted average of 66.9p. This is currently losing £5,122 which is a spectacular disaster! It now makes up 53.3% of my combined portfolio cost and each 1p change in price affects the portfolio by £569.64.

However, I am still convinced that when this share price madness sorts itself out, the price will pass 100p with little resistance. If it does hit 100p that will result in paper profits of £18,834 to start with. When you add free shares in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and Sweetbiotix then we could be looking at much higher returns, and with a 10-year horizon, I think it's more a case of how high can they go before someone buys them out?

The share price action was very suspect today. My purchase showed as a sell, and it appeared the spread was higher than it should have been so I suspect many buys showed as sells, which surely has the effect of spooking investors and justifying the continued drop in price.

Then lo and behold, just before the closing bell a load of massive buys go through at sub 60p. Well I never! I wonder how long those had been getting trickle fed as the price kept going lower and lower during the day?

As long as the stock exchange can get away with disguising buys as sells and vice versa, there's always smoke and mirrors over what is driving the share price. It's completely wrong and makes manipulation of the share price too easy

Having said all that, maybe I'm being stupid, as I shouldn't really care what's going on day-to-day. If I have done my research and am satisfied a company is sound, then I should be grateful for chances like today where I can increase my holding. It's just hard to keep telling myself that after 2 years when the share is losing me more money than ever before.

All this is just a week before Probiota 2018, when I have a feeling some long-awaited press coverage might finally appear.

Patience...

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