Saturday, 13 January 2018

Week 127 Review - IQE gets hammered

After a couple of decent weeks I was hoping 2018 was going to be kind, but the combined portfolios took a £2,634 hammering this week, reducing the value to £73,893 and halving the buffer between cost and value to £2,538. Rather frustrating given it was my 50th birthday on Friday. Spookily the same day as a much more famous blogger, as Tom Winnifrith from ShareProfits posted his 50th birthday thoughts on the same day!

As the title of this week's blog implies, IQE:IQE was the worst performer, dropping 13% in my SIPP and now losing money, and dropping 42% of my original purchase price in the ISA. That holding is still up by 212% but it wiped around £1,000 off my portfolio value. It reminds me of when GVC:GVC Holdings was attacked after it steadily rose from 400p to 750p. It was battered down to 600p for no reason, but given the number of trolls that appeared on the bulletin board during the descent, some people made a lot of money from the fall. Now it's trading at 950p so it was a very short term problem, as will be the attack on IQE:IQE in my opinion.

BLU:Blue Star Capital showed my dally into crypto-currency was appallingly timed, dropping another 8% and now 31% down.

OPTI:Optibiotix is still being prevented from rising by a persistent seller, dropping 5% which is only 3p but cost me over £1,500 this week. This also relegates OPTI:Optibiotix back to Nemesis Share, losing £2,362 on paper.

There were some great performers, but they couldn't do enough to shake off the big drops above.

CAML:Central Asia Metals reached another all-time high and climbed 6% to go 85% up on my original purchase price. Although the cost of these was only 6.5% of my current portfolio cost, the value is now 11.9% of my portfolio value. I have been considering my risk profile lately, and am conscious that I'm disobeying my max 10% holding in one stock rule horribly with OPTI:Optibiotix, so am thinking that when that settles down and free shares get issued, maybe I should sell down until it's back within 10% of the portfolio value. If I do that with CAM:Central Asia Metals I'd need to cut the value by £1,444 to get it to 10%. That would mean selling 450 shares and allow me to take a small amount of profit, but still maintain a sizable holding. Unfortunately I'd want to spend the money on IQE:IQE while they are cheap, but as they already comprise 14% of my portfolio value, it immediately breaks my new rule! I'd love the chance to get one over on the shorters though. With hindsight, If I had sold 1% value of IQE:IQE on the way up as soon as it went over 11%, it would have been timed around their peak price and I would have banked some profit. This could be a good rule to implement - in stages...

MTFB:Motif Bio continued a steady rise, climbing 9% and going 39% up. One of my rare well-timed purchases!

Share of the Week is rather unfortunate as I don't like it.  WRES:W Resources climbed 20% in my SIPP and 14% in my ISA so with a bit of luck I'll soon be able to get rid of the things.




Half the buffer wiped out, just as things were picking up.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £10.89
+£0
Portfolio cost £44,964.39
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £45.191.93 (0.5%) -£1,917.07
Potential profits £6,738.89
-£898.15
Yr 3 Dividends £34.11
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,104.47
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £210.98 (5.6%) -£9.59
Total Dividends £1,213.16
+£0
Total Profit from sales £7,816.97
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £303.88 (8.1%) -£2.41
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Losses in potential profit were all IQE:IQE and most of the other losses were OPTI:Optibiotix. Going back to my 10% thoughts above, I wouldn't get these drastic weeks when one share does badly if I stuck to the 10% rule. I really must put together a plan to do that - but not until OPTI:Optibiotix has had its moment in the sun.




This could easily go back into loss next week with only a £227 buffer.

Here's the SIPP after week 111



Weekly Change
Cash £27.69
+£0
Portfolio cost £26,007.03
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £28,449.89 (9.4%) -£702.95
Potential profits £4,512.72
+£76.15
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £-13.38 (-0.6%) +£2.23
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £8,925.19
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £377.58 (17.4%) -£3.43
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Potential profits actually increased thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals, but the sell value plummeted thanks to everything else. So - as I've been writing I've been thinking more about the 10% rule, and I am going to implement it but only for shares that are on a steady rise and where the cost of the shares was less than 10% of the portfolio.

I calculated at what point above 10% I'd get £1,000 for selling and it comes out as 1.4% on my current portfolio value. That calculation has been added to my spreadsheet as it will change over time as the portfolio value changes. Although both IQE:IQE and OPTI:Optibiotix are also above 10% of my portfolio value, they are on a downward trajectory or making a loss, so they don't qualify, but any future shares that get above 11.4% will have £1,000 top-sliced to get them back to 10%.

With that in mind I've just added a limit order for 320 CAML:Central Asia Metals shares at 330p which is 10p above the current price, as I'm not really bothered if I don't sell them so may as well ride the momentum a bit more. Let's see if this technique works! It goes to show how useful writing this diary is - I never would have thought of this otherwise.




Not too much to worry about, but if the sale goes ahead then there will be a bit of action as I buy something next week.

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 77



Weekly Change
Cash £0.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £345.65
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £213.48 (-38.2%) -£14.78
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 2 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 2 Profit -£218.50
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit -£37.87 (-131.5%) +£1.58
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£13.52 (-46.9%) +£0.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Just desperate! LION:Lionsgold may be a giant turkey!




As above

So I'm quite excited about next week now - with the potential for £1,000 to play with in the SIPP. My first instinct will be to snap up more IQE:IQE while they are so cheap, but that's not going to help me with my new 10% rule. I've been watching a few more shares, and one in particular so there may be a new addition to the portfolio next week...

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