Disaster!
The portfolio is now £6,492 in the red and worth just £65,282 compared to nearly £80,000 a few months ago.
On paper the worst performer was IQE:IQE, but that's not really true. My SIPP holding only decreased by 3%, whereas my ISA holding didn't really lose anything thanks to my big purchase at 92p on Monday. However, the fact my weighted average cost per share increased from 39p to 59p means the holding is only 68% up on the cost price, whereas it was 163% up on the original cost price last week. Although the performance has actually improved, it appears to be 95% down on last week because of the increased average cost.
Next worst performer was LGEN:Legal & General which was hammered along with the other blue chips and dropped 10%. Not a lot you can do during a correction.
Next worst performer was last week's worst performer CAML:Central Asia Metals which has suffered horribly as one of the non-exec directors has sold his entire holding in a placement. The placement was at quite a discount to the share price, and it dropped 9% as a result.
MTFB:Motif Bio and BLU:Blue Star Capital both dropped 8% and I'll be topping up on MTFB:Motif Bio at this price if IQE:IQE stages any sort of recovery next week and I top-slice a few profits.
The other 8% faller was much more serious. OPTI:Optibiotix makes up 53.3% of my portfolio and each penny change in share price amounts to £569, so dropping 5p from 61p to 56p this week was a complete disaster. The culprit was someone taking up their warrant entitlement at 8p a share for 800,000 shares and then selling the lot today. Thanks a bundle! At least they won't get their hands on any free SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares.
RED:RedT Energy continues to slide and lost another 7% based on no news and doubts they can make enough margin on each machine to make a profit.
JLP:Jubilee Metals had a complete disaster when the recent joint venture with BMR:BMR Group hit a brick wall as the Zambian government terminated their mining licence. This was the day after JLP:Jubilee Metals had confirmed their due diligence was complete and the project would go ahead. WTF!! It's a miracle the share price only fell 6% after a balls-up like that, but the fact it has fallen below 3p is most worrying, and it's now 35% down on my purchase price.
Only two shares managed to increase in value this week, and amazingly it's the same two that gained in value last week. WRES:W Resources rose 6% in my SIPP but only 4% in my ISA compared to purchase price, so if I take the average then LION:Lionsgold wins Share of the Week as it climbed 6%. I'm still not convinced either of these will make me any money, but after a week like this one I'll take anything.
It's just awful.
Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £17.13 | +£6.44 | |
| Portfolio cost | £44,890.45 | +£102.82 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £39.853.93 | (-11.2%) | -£2,292.06 |
| Potential profits | £4,735.43 | -£230.19 | |
| Yr 3 Dividends | £44.15 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Profit from sales | £1,030.48 | +£102.97 | |
| Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit | £168.86 | (4.5%) | +£3.69 |
| Total Dividends | £1,223.20 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £7,742.98 | +£102.97 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £292.36 | (7.8%) | -£1.20 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Cash is up by an odd amount because I forgot to add the £10.20 dividend last week, and there was a £3.75 charge for the ISA and a few pence left over after the Monday trade.
Portfolio cost went up £102 when I re-invested the profits from selling 80% of my AMYT:Amryt Pharma holding to plough into IQE:IQE at what was hopefully a bargain price.
Catastrophic decline in portfolio value was caused mostly by OPTI:Optibiotix but with a helping hand from every other stock except WRES:W Resources which climbed a tiny amount and IQE:IQE which stayed pretty flat but is 8p up on my big buy on Monday.
Potential profits are hardly affected at all. There was a £102 drop on selling AMYT:Amryt Pharma, and the subsequent fall in share price also dented profits, and MTFB:Motif Bio also dropped to reduce profits. Everything else except IQE:IQE is at a loss, which is grim!
My plan is to wait for IQE:IQE to recover to around 140p and then start gradually top-slicing £1,000 at a time until it's down to 10% of the portfolio. I'd like to get some of my AMYT:Amryt Pharma shares back, but also take advantage of the recent dip for MTFB:Motif Bio which I think is more likely to move ahead this year as phase III trials are complete.
The decline since November is worse than Brexit and Trump added together!
Here's the SIPP after week 115
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £28.81 | -£10.20 | |
| Portfolio cost | £26,492.59 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £25,113.81 | (-5.2%) | -£1,907.88 |
| Potential profits | £2,947.55 | -£582.04 | |
| Yr 3 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Profit from sales | £496.89 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit | £183.21 | (8.3%) | -£4.02 |
| Total Dividends | £916.10 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £9,422.08 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £382.79 | (17.3%) | -£0.38 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Cash is down because of monthly SIPP charges, sell value has plummeted thanks to nearly everything tanking, and potential profits are down £582 thanks to both CAML:Central Asia Metals and LGEN:Legal & General being hammered. Average monthly performance hasn't been hit as much as usual as I accidentally moved the week on twice a few weeks ago so the impact of the £10.20 charge is lessened now that's fixed.
The portfolio plummets into the red for the first time in years. Very upsetting!
The trading account looks like this after week 81
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £0.03 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £345.65 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £268.91 | (-22.2%) | +£18.48 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 2 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 2 Profit | -£218.50 | +£0 | |
| Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit | -£32.65 | (-113.3%) | +£1.17 |
| Dividends | £1.15 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | -£241.35 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | -£12.85 | (-44.6%) | +£0.16 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
LION:Lionsgold has another blue week among the carnage. Is this a sign that I can make some money and take this account back into profit? I won't be holding my breath!
Creeping back up, but still a massive embarrassment.
The one ray of sunshine on my doom-ridden portfolio is that the Dow bounced significantly on Friday. It's remarkable how often that happens just after the London markets close. The other rays of sunshine for CAML:Central Asia Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix are that the big declines were related to large sales. One from a director cashing in his entire holding and one due to opportunistic cashing in of warrants, possibly so they can take advantage of the multitude of bargains following last week's correction. I'm confident both these shares will bounce back quite quickly, and the free SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares have been pretty much confirmed now, so it won't be long before those are dished out and will immediately wipe out my current losses.
Less sunny is the outlook for JLP:Jubilee Metals. Everything they touch seems to be cursed. There's no doubt they have the engineering skill to make money, but the number of failed deals and poor judgement keeps mounting up. I bought loads on the optimism following the granting of the Tjate mining licence, but this is looking like a completely dead duck now, as nobody has enough cash to mine it, and nobody is prepared to risk it while platinum prices are so low.
The IQE:IQE saga continues. I mentioned on Monday that we'd won a battle but not necessarily the war, and I was right as a new player emerged in the shape of Muddy Waters. This outfit has shorted the stock and produced another dodgy report just as flawed as the Shadowfall report. This hit the share price along with the wider market drop and has given the hedge funds an ideal opportunity to start closing their shorts. The drop in the rest of the market hasn't happened for IQE:IQE thanks to the closing of short positions. However, that's because our drop had already happened over the last few months due to the shorts being opened in the first place!
It's going to be much harder for Shadowfall and Muddy Waters to make a profit as it appears they opened their shorts way later than the hedge funds. Thankfully a host of analysts are coming out with statements confirming their higher valuations of the IQE:IQE share price, and Cardiff University have also come out in defence of the joint ventures following accusations in the latest report that they are being taken advantage of by IQE:IQE.
The fact the hedge funds are now closing their positions is an indication they don't think it will fall below 100p. We may be stuck here for a while and have to suffer further fake news and scaremongering, but hopefully any frightened shareholders have already bailed out and left the hard-line holders behind.
My worry is that everyone is holding out for stellar results in March. Although the revenue will be stellar, my worry is that the impact of the unpaid tax issue which will cost £4.2m and the short term impact of the Trump tax cut, could mean profits are down on last year. Next year they will be meteoric, but there could be a bit of a sting for 2017 and the shorters could play on that if they anticipate it. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't close off now and allow the price to surge again up to the results, then whack in a load of shorts just before the results are announced. With that in mind I do need to gradually reduce my exposure to 10% of my portfolio value over the next few weeks, but not at a price below 140p.
I really hope next week isn't as painful as this one...
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