Saturday, 24 February 2018

Week 133 Review - Now invested in Versarien

A good week, with the difference between portfolio value and cost improving by £1,159 despite cashing in £638 profit selling the last of my 92p IQE:IQE holding. Portfolio value increased by £1,515 to £70,406 and back over the £70K mark.

Worst performer was LION:Lionsgold in my trading account which dropped 12% just as I thought it had turned a corner.

CAML:Central Asia Metals was Share of the Week last week, but profit taking set in and it dropped 8% this week and has become very volatile lately.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics issued results. No surprises but it was enough to drop the price by 7% and these are now losing 51% from my purchase price. The excitement and optimism from IPO day seem a long, long way away now.

WRES:W Resources has been on a bit of a run but I think people are now realising the true cost of the loan to start production and I can see it sliding back to where it has been for the last two years. This week's drop was 5%.

MTFB:Motif Bio increased by 5% which is great after my recent doubling of shares. This is now 10% up and making £236 paper profit.

TLOU:Tlou Energy also climbed 5% after the dreadful fall last week, but that was only enough to improve my losses to 18%. I'm satisfied this will turn around quite quickly and is likely to lift off when the re-tender excercise is complete. It now appears the issue was down to inexperience within the Botswana government that when companies are tendering that don't yet produce gas, it's impossible to meet the requirements of the tender because they would only apply if already producing. If the government don't relax the requirements, nobody will apply as nobody is producing gas in Botswana yet. I may double up here while the price is this low.

Share of the Week is IQE:IQE which climbed 12% in my SIPP to go back into profit, and up 30% of my weighted average price in the ISA to go 127% up. Selling my 4,200 92p shares has yielded £866 profit in a couple of weeks, which is even more when you consider AMYT:Amryt Pharma has dropped 1.7p since I sold them to buy these shares, which would have been paper loss of £340, so my two fingers up to the shorters has made me over £1,000 better off. Huzzah!

I still have 8,809 IQE:IQE shares making paper profit of £5,282 and this comprises 16.8% of my portfolio value, so I do have capacity to top-slice a few more to get me down to 10% before the results are announced in March. That day will almost certainly see a massive spike, but in which direction? Whatever happens, IQE:IQE has already been very good to me, with £7,217 profits banked and almost as much still available should I choose to bank it.




The recovery continues!

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £10.31
+£0.30
Portfolio cost £47,136.54
+£638.37
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £43.250.25 (-8.2%) +£937.36
Potential profits £5,534.79
+£803.91
Yr 3 Dividends £44.15
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £3,269.76
+£638.34
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £491.82 (12.5%) +£81.23
Total Dividends £1,223.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £9,982.26
+£638.34
Average monthly cash profit £360.93 (9.2%) +£18.23
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

I sold another 1,000 IQE:IQE shares at 124.85p making £638.34 (104.6%) profit against my weighted average price. This was re-invested in VRS:Versarien which I have been watching for ages. It has done exactly the same as OPTI:Optibiotix and soared on enthusiastic optimism for what appears to be a company with massive potential. Two years ago I would have leapt in and bought some some as soon as I found out about them - in fact I very nearly did on a huge spike of over £1. Instead I watched it every day and read the bulletin board every day as it drifted lower. It reminded me so much of the OPTI:Optibiotix bulletin board. Lots of head scratching as to why the market couldn't see the value of the company.

I set my target price at 70p, and this appeared on Friday. I sold the IQE:IQE shares and used the proceeds to buy 1,742 VRS:Versarien shares at 70.3p costing £1,236.58. I was slightly miffed that IQE:IQE rose to 134.2p by the end of the day when I had sold at 124.85p, but my mood was improved when VRS:Versarien climbed to an offer price of 74p by the end of the day. Happily my new holding was £23 (2%) up by the end of the day when the bid price reached 73p.

Potential profits were still up by £803 despite banking £638, mostly thanks to IQE:IQE but a 1p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix also helped. Average performance has done really well after the recent sales, climbing by another £18 per month and hitting a respectable 9.2%.




The gap has narrowed, but it's still quite a wide gap. Last time I had a rise like this it was followed by a fall twice as big. I really hope that doesn't happen again!

The SIPP looks like this after week 117



Weekly Change
Cash £273.09
+£0
Portfolio cost £26,290.07
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £26,648.31 (1.4%) +£262.57
Potential profits £3,596.11
-£272.78
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £538.65
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £168.94 (7.7%) -£14.08
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £9,463.84
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £377.79 (17.2%) -£3.26
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Overall value increased by just £262 and potential profit dropped by £272. The drop was caused by CAML:Central Asia Metals falling so far. IQE:IQE caused the increase in value with a little help from LGEN:Legal & General and OPTI:Optibiotix. Performance is slipping for year 3, but still way ahead of 10% target for the long-term average.



Moving further into the black.

I guess we need to look at the trading account after week 83



Weekly Change
Cash £0.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £345.65
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £224.56 (-35%) -£40.65
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 2 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 2 Profit -£218.50
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit -£30.54 (-106%) +£1.02
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£12.54 (-43.5%) +£0.15
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Another drop for LION:Lionsgold. I watched some YouTube videos this morning - about trading. They were pretty good, and I now realise that even if LION:Lionsgold is a good trading share, what I should have done is sold out as soon as it dropped. I still would have had most of the £345 and I could have then waited for it to drop further, find a bottom, and then start to recover - which is exactly what it did from around 2.5p. I doubt I would have successfully sold at the 4.5p spike as it was so short, but I could easily have bought after the climb from 3.2p and sold at 4p for some profit. My 4.5p entry point is just too high for the current trading range of the stock. However, now I'm making 35% loss I'm stuck here like I was with REDS:RedstoneConnect. I could have made four or five 5% losses and still been better off than I am now, and the odds are that one of those purchases would have resulted in profit.

I think I'm learning - but I now need LION:Lionsgold to do me a bit of a favour so I can try putting it into practice.




Nearly the worst ever position so far

I've got a day off on Friday - I wonder whether I'll end up doing anything with my portfolio?

If IQE:IQE continues the recovery then I will top-slice a few more profits to get my holding down to 10% of the portfolio value, just in case the results cause a dip. I may keep some of my profits in cash so I can pounce should that happen, as there is no doubt in my mind that IQE:IQE has an impressive future when 5G and autonomous vehicles ramp up the demand for their products.

The only share I won't sell down to 10% is OPTI:Optibiotix, as despite the risk of having over 50% of my portfolio invested there, the potential is so vast and overwhelming that I'm willing to take that risk. In fact, given it would only take 997 shares to reach 60,000 I may just be tempted so I end on a nice round number. That will definitely be my last purchase - possibly...

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