Saturday, 3 February 2018

Week 130 Review - Further into the red

Although the losses of £1,061 this week are just a third of last weeks' losses, this has been a much more depressing week. Only 2 shares increased in value, a few stayed still, and nearly everything else dropped, with some significantly. The portfolio value dropped to £69,365 and below the rather significant £70K level, with a paper loss of £2,310.

Worst performer was CAML:Central Asia Metals which must have been due to profit taking, as metal prices are holding up. The drop of 10% made a significant hole in my SIPP profits.

Then it was just a relentless flood of large drops, with KIBO:Kibo Mining down 8%, IKA:Ilika down 7%, RDT:Rosslyn Data down 7% and RED:RedT Energy also down 7%.

Thank goodness IQE:IQE was only down 1% despite the savage attack of the shorters.

There were only 2 shares that increased in price this week. WRES:W Resources climbed 2% and LION:Lionsgold climbed 3%. Neither deserve Share of the Week so they ain't going to get it.

Share of the Week goes to OPTI:Optibiotix, which despite finishing on the same price it started, dropped low enough for me to buy a load more mid-week and then climbed back to the starting price. This allowed my ISA holding to increase by 1% thanks to the bargain purchase. Super!




Pretty horrible sight.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £10.69
-£0.20
Portfolio cost £44,787.63
-£176.76
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £42.043.17 (-6.4%) -£747.30
Potential profits £4,965.62
-£144.90
Yr 3 Dividends £44.15
+£10.04
Yr 3 Profit from sales £927.51
-£176.96
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £165.17 (4.4%) -£28.93
Total Dividends £1,223.20
+£10.04
Total Profit from sales £7,640.01
-£176.96
Average monthly cash profit £293.56 (7.9%) -£5.61
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Well it's a busy table! Selling CMCL:Caledonia Mining at a loss hit the performance quite badly and resulted in the portfolio cost reducing when I re-invested a smaller amount. Potential profits were only slightly reduced by the cashing in of some AMYT:Amryt Pharma profit and a slight drop for IQE:IQE. The £10 dividend was from CMCL:Caledonia Mining. Portfolio sell value dropped by £747 due to losses across the board.




I really hope this can recover as quickly as it's dropped because my pre-Christmas optimism is feeling a bit deflated.

The SIPP looks like this after week 114



Weekly Change
Cash £39.01
+£0
Portfolio cost £26,492.59
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £27,021.69 (2.0%) -£501.92
Potential profits £3,529.59
-£472.51
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £496.89
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £178.23 (8.5%) -£18.72
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £9,422.08
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £383.17 (17.4%) -£3.36
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The £501 drop was almost entirely down to the 10% drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals. I'm hoping this was a tree shake as I think this has a long way to go, and the next trading update could be a corker.




That's looking very bad indeed - this account hasn't looked like going into the red for a long time but is now on the brink!

The trading account looks like this after week 80



Weekly Change
Cash £0.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £345.65
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £250.43 (-27.5%) +£11.09
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 2 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 2 Profit -£218.50
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit -£33.82 (-117.4%) +£1.25
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£13.01 (-45.2%) +£0.17
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

It says something when my best performing share of the week LION:Lionsgold caused only an £11 rise in value. I've not lost hope in this one - the shares are incredibly volatile and the slightest thing could generate a 100% increase, but I timed my dalliance to the crypto-bubble perfectly badly, just before the burst, so it's a good job I restricted myself to a few hundred quid in my play account.




So basically a really shitty week, only brightened by the opportunity to get some bargain OPTI:Optibiotix shares which generated an instant return despite the share price still being horribly low.

All eyes are now focused on the IQE:IQE shorting saga. Last week the hedge funds got their media mates to post a load of fake news about Apple cancelling the iPhone X. They were hoping for bad news from the Apple trading update, but must have been horrified when it came out positive, with quotes like the iPhone X is the best iPhone ever.

Amazingly, the day after the good Apple results, a report was made available (despite being published in December) claiming financial misconduct by IQE:IQE. The person writing the report admitted that they are shorting IQE:IQE. Talk about desperation measures! The problem is, the attack was successful and the price didn't recover so the shorters are still in control.

Then came the revelation that although about 12% of IQE:IQE shares are being actively shorted by those having more than 0.5% of the share capital, there are actually 25% of available shares out on loan. This means the shorters still have a hell of a lot of ammunition to fire at the share price.

I'm not sure I have the stomach to fight them, and with IQE:IQE making up 13.3% of my portfolio value, keeping everything invested is looking like quite a risk in the short term.

It makes me angry that I may have to capitulate and help them in their quest, but if I sell 2,000 of my ISA shares even at this depressed price, I make £1,286 (155%) profit and still leave 10% of my combined portfolio value invested for the long term.

It's a big decision as I would much prefer to see the shorters destroyed, but how can a tiny private investor hope to compete with that sort of power? If I were to top-slice any other share for 155% profit I'd be really pleased. If it hadn't been 400% profit a few months ago I wouldn't be so hesitant. I shouldn't forget that I sold my initial SIPP holding at 137p making £4,978 (186.9%) profit which isn't much more than I would make if I sold some of these now. The sale would also rescue my flagging ISA/share accounts performance and take my average monthly return back up to 9%.

This would also help me get back to my maximum 10% rule, as it would leave OPTI:Optibiotix as the only share left flouting the rule. Granted at 53.3% that's flouting it pretty brazenly, but once the free shares are dished out I can consider gradually dropping it back towards 10%. The free shares will actually help there, because they will reduce the percentage of the portfolio OPTI:Optibiotix comprises so I won't have to off-load as many!

So I have a decision to make over the weekend - fight the shorters or capitulate?

Edit - I've made my decision. The shorters can go jump. This is war, and I'm fighting on the side of the righteous.  They're not getting my bloody shares!

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