Worst performer in terms of percentage drop was RED:RedT Energy which fell 7% and is really struggling. This is way, way below the recent discounted placing when sentiment was improving, but there is still no evidence that selling their vanadium redox flow machines can be made profitable, so I suspect this miserable performance to continue until that's resolved.
JLP:Jubilee Metals was almost as bad. Shareholders are giving up on the directors and bailing out. I'm almost tempted to do the same, but a 44% loss would be a lot to stomach given how positive things were not so long ago. Every time it looks like the share price might take off they do something to shoot themselves in the foot, and the Beaufort issues and BMR:BMR Group project bailout make me even more suspicious of the directors. I have a horrible feeling this is going to end up in a mess. I've not completely given up hope though. They are producing chrome and platinum so that proves the whole operation isn't just geared to pay director salaries with shareholder money. If things do recover, I won't be hanging around to find out if they make it to mid-cap as I've lost faith in the directors completely and am in damage limitation mode.
SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics had a good week, climbing 7% but still 37% down. The only way I'll get into profit in the medium term will be adding the free shares from OPTI:Optibiotix. Long term I'm still happy this will do well and would be topping up at these prices is not for the promise of freebies.
Share of the Week is my favourite yo-yo CAML:Central Asia Metals which climbed 8% and is up at new highs. This has now risen 94% since my original purchase. The value is 11.2% of my portfolio cost, so it only needs to climb another 0.2% of portfolio value to qualify for top-slicing £1,000. The ex-dividend date should be around 10th May so it's hard to sell before then, as I'm expecting over £200 in dividends. On the other hand, I won't be selling too many so shouldn't lose very much.
Note that I've changed my calculation for top-slicing to look at portfolio cost rather than value. That's because if OPTI:Optibiotix does take off, then the portfolio value will become very skewed until I start reducing my OPTI:Optibiotix position. However, I'm not planning to do that for a long time so no shares will have a chance to break 10% of portfolio value apart from OPTI:Optibiotix. Calculating my top-slice position based on portfolio cost gets around that problem.
Back below the red line, but only just.
Here's the ISA and share accounts
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £2,208.40 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £47,326.05 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £42.390.50 | (-10.4%) | -£1,025.44 |
| Potential profits | £3,588.25 | -£88.89 | |
| Yr 3 Dividends | £44.15 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Profit from sales | £5,664.86 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit | £769.54 | (19.5%) | -£24.82 |
| Total Dividends | £1,223.20 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £12,377.36 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £429.16 | (10.9%) | -£3.18 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
A nice quiet week with little change. Most of the damage was deepening losses, mainly of OPTI:Optibiotix, but flat IQE:IQE and drop in VRS:Versarien meant paper profits also took a small dip. Still £2,208 cash tempting me to buy something, but I need ammo for IQE:IQE results day on Tuesday in case I get the opportunity for a bargain, and I think I will as the exceptional tax charges alone should impact profits. They include over £4m unpaid tax discovered this year and the impact of Trump's tax cuts which will have a negative impact on 2017 results, but positive in future years. Last year the exchange rate also helped profits, but this year it hasn't been as favourable. Even a bullish forecast for 2018 won't stop the market makers and hedge funds ensuring there's a great big dip, even if only for a few minutes. It happened last year to trigger stop losses. I could be wrong of course, in which case I'll use the cash for something else.
Things never go up in a straight line - they often come down in one though!
Here's the SIPP after week 120
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £263.58 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £26,290.07 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £28,417.99 | (8.1%) | -£141.83 |
| Potential profits | £4,548.70 | +£340.19 | |
| Yr 3 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Profit from sales | £538.65 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit | £134.69 | (6.1%) | -£8.98 |
| Total Dividends | £916.10 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £9,463.84 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £368.10 | (16.8%) | -£3.10 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Very quiet. Profits are up mainly thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals but OPTI:Optibiotix has dragged the whole thing down to a small £141 loss. Average performance still way ahead of target so I don't mind that year 3 forecast average is so low.
Still very healthy after the recent scare.
The dreaded trading account looks like this
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £0.03 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £345.65 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £161.74 | (-53.2%) | -£14.78 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 2 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 2 Profit | -£218.50 | +£0 | |
| Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit | -£27.85 | (-96.7%) | +£0.84 |
| Dividends | £1.15 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | -£241.35 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | -£12.10 | (-42%) | +£0.15 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Another drip downwards for LION:Lionsgold means these have halved in value since I bought them - and I thought I was being clever getting them after they had dropped - but no - I was catching a falling knife and it carried on falling!
They say we learn by our mistakes. I'm glad this mistake is only costing £183 so far - it's actually been worth a hell of a lot more as an example of when not to buy a share. Given I've already applied learning from this mistake when timing my purchase of VRS:Versarien which is £179 up, it's almost paid for itself already. It's also stopped me buying HEMO:Hemogenyx yet, which is a very good thing as it continues to slide. At 2.8p it's getting perilously close to my 2.5p target though.
So CAML:Central Asia Metals has almost hit the 11.4% of portfolio cost limit that makes me top-slice, and IQE:IQE is also at 11.4% so I may be selling some on Monday. If I do then I should have around £4,000 ammunition ready for Tuesday, which is about what I had last time I bought IQE:IQE for 92p and made a massive profit in about 10 days. In fact, whatever happens to IQE:IQE in the future, it's been very good to me so far, having banked around £9,700 profit, and a sale on Monday will take that past £10,000. That's almost half of all the profit I have ever made from sales.
I'll also be watching CWR:Ceres Power very closely on Tuesday as they are posting results. I want to buy back in, but the price is 2p more than I sold my holding for, so I really need it to drop below that before I buy in. As they have no commercial sales yet, I'm hoping lack of tangible progress will cause a drop in price, as I still believe these have a very strong future. There are just a few hurdles to get around before they become profitable.
There are some other shares I've been watching closely for a potential entry point, all of which have been pumped recently and are now dropping into more reasonable pricing. IMM:Immupharma may have stabilised at around the 125p range so now may be the time to buy. The results of their Phase III trial for lupus treatment are imminent. I suspect success has been priced in already, but positive news could cause a re-rate.
N4P:N4 Pharma have also been dropping like a stone, but the drop seems to have stalled a bit. They have an interesting business model of improving the efficacy of existing drugs. It removes the need for marketing new drugs, and the drugs they have targeted are massive earners. They are also developing Nuvec which is a delivery system for getting nucleic acids into cells for cancer treatment. If this works it could be huge, and the re-formulation business helps de-risk this research as the profits should provide any required funding.
So if IQE:IQE doesn't plummet on Tuesday I may be dipping my toe into IMM:Immupharma, N4P:N4 Pharma and HEMO:Hemogenyx as they all seem to be at or nearing a reasonable entry point.
Small-cap pharma is quite risky though - and I already have AMYT:Amryt Pharma and MTFB:Mofif Bio.
The other question is whether these are still falling knives? IMM:Immupharma has been stable for a few weeks now and on a slightly upward trend, but N4P:N4 Pharma has only just stopped the slide for a few days. The problem is, N4P:N4 Pharma is probably the most exciting, with greater prospects and a more diverse business model. It only has 90m shares in issue too, so much less dilution than many small companies. IMM:Immupharma only has 139m compared to HEMO:Hemogenyx which is much further away from profits and has 356m. Maybe I'll carry on watching that one and revise down my entry point to 2p as it's so much further behind the other two.
Lots to think about next week. Sales on Monday and buys on Tuesday - but what will I buy?
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