Saturday, 3 March 2018

Week 134 Review - Great timing on Versarien investment

Although this week has seen a drop in portfolio value, it's actually been quite good. The fall is entirely down to small drops in my biggest holdings OPTI:Optibiotix and IQE:IQE but compared to the general decline in the market, things turned out quite well. The value dropped by £803 to £69,603 and the portfolio is £4,452 in the red.

Biggest loser was in the trading account. LION:Lionsgold fell 11% and made me regret my optimism a few weeks ago. This is back to being a donkey and down 46% in the short time I've owned it.

IQE:IQE dropped 6% in my SIPP and 14% in my ISA against cost price. Shorters seem to be back in control. I thought the price would be allowed to rise leading up to results, with the potential for a big drop on that day when tax charges and improving dollar hit profits. Although the price is now higher than my recent sales, they were my sacrificial shares bought at 92p. Although I do want to get my holding down to 10% of portfolio value, I don't want to sell for anything under 140p.

There were lots of other small losses across the portfolio, but they had limited impact apart from the 1p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix which was responsible for £590 of the drop in value.

There were some good rises though. CAML:Central Asia Metals has become a proper yo-yo share. Last week it had dropped 8% after being Share of the Week the week before that, but this week it climbed 4% to claw back half the losses. It's now 80% up, or 96% if you count the stunning £647 dividends I've had in just over 2 years.

RED:RedT Energy has been really poor lately on lack of news, but climbed 6% this week. It's still 32% down but I suspect this will sort itself out very quickly if they can prove there's a profit in selling their machines.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics has been another really poor performer lately, but renewed optimism this week saw the share price climb 17%. It's still 34% down, and normally I would top up at these prices, but seeing as I'm about to get thousands of free shares from OPTI:Optibiotix, there doesn't seem much point.

Share of the Week was my most recent purchase VRS:Versarien, climbing 18%. In a very rare example of good timing, these have climbed 20% in 2 weeks and are making £249 paper profit. I've been really excited about the company for months, and that excitement is increasing. There's still a risk it will languish in a trading range for a year or two before it can prove profitability, just like OPTI:Optibiotix, but I think this is one to tuck away for the long term and potentially top up on any dips.




I guess it was too much to hope that the upward trend would continue without a blip or two.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £10.31
+£0
Portfolio cost £47,136.54
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £42.711.31 (-9.4%) -£538.94
Potential profits £5,118.73
-£416.06
Yr 3 Dividends £44.15
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £3,269.76
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £475.43 (12.1%) -£16.39
Total Dividends £1,223.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £9,982.26
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £358.23 (9.1%) -£2.70
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A quiet week. As mentioned above, most losses were IQE:IQE and OPTI:Optibiotix, with the increase in VRS:Versarien helping reduce the impact on potential profits.




Still way too big a gap.

The SIPP loos like this after week 118



Weekly Change
Cash £273.09
+£0
Portfolio cost £26,290.07
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £26,421.20 (0.5%) -£227.11
Potential profits £3,687.29
+£91.18
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £538.65
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £156.88 (7.2%) -£12.06
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £9,463.84
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £374.59 (17.1%) -£3.20
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

As both OPTI:Optibiotix and IQE:IQE are making a loss, the drop didn't really affect paper profits. LGEN:Legal & General fell 2% but the rise in CAML:Central Asia Metals was easily enough to ensure potential profits climbed this week.




In the black, but the gap is so narrow it's on a knife-edge.

Trading looks like this after week 84



Weekly Change
Cash £0.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £345.65
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £187.61 (-45.7%) -£36.95
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 2 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 2 Profit -£218.50
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit -£19.59 (-102.7%) +£0.95
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£12.39 (-43%) +£0.15
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

I have a new strategy, but can't bring myself to sell for such a massive loss to put it into practice. I'm stuck in limbo until LION:Lionsgold does something to enable me to sell. Next time, I'll sell long before it drops this low and things will be different! I hope...




If this account ever works, I'm sure I'll look back at this graph and shake my head and wonder how I could let it get so bad. In fact, I'm shaking my head now and wondering how I let it get so bad!

I'm hoping IQE:IQE will recover to 140p next week as I have a couple of shares I'd like to dip a toe into. One was going to be HEMO:Hemogenyx which I started watching a couple of weeks ago, and at just above 2p looked like a reasonable price. Unfortunately I was too late and it climbed 186% in one day to 6p. Since then it's dropped to 4.9p but that's way more than I'm prepared to pay. One to watch and hope it drops back to maybe 2.5p which seems a fair price given how long it will be before they make a profit.

One of my old favourite shares is PAF:Pan African Resources. They've been on hard times recently, but may have come through them. The share price has halved and they have a P/E ratio of just 0.067. There are some significant risks, but with new projects starting to produce later this year, now could be a good time to get back in.

I'm also hoping for resolution of a potentially disastrous situation for KIBO:Kibo Mining. Their broker Beaufort Securities Limited has been placed into insolvency, just after a placing was carried out to raise £750,000 which hasn't been handed over yet. Hopefully Beaufort haven't received the money yet else we may never see it, but the investors will no doubt want their shares or their money back. This could have a terrible impact if KIBO:Kibo Mining need to grant the shares despite getting no cash. Just as everything was looking so promising too!

The insolvency also affects JLP:Jubilee Metals who use them as sole broker and now need to find another one quick.

There's only really one thing I want next week, and that's the golden RNS from OPTI:Optibiotix. Surely it's got to come soon? Years of waiting and building what for me is a gigantic position, but still nothing to show for it apart from my £5,500 paper loss. No wonder my portfolio is in the red! At least we had news this week that the premium account has been cancelled, so dividends can be distributed. I hope they wait to distribute the free SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares, as I think that would significantly lower the OPTI:Optibiotix share price. We need news of revenues and a share price over 100p so the effect of the drop will be less severe. I'd be wailing in the street if they dish them out now and the share price drops to 48p, about 30% below my weighted average. If it drops from 100p to 90p I'll be much less upset.

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