Saturday, 19 May 2018

Week 145 Review - Hopes of returning to profit dashed

I was so close to getting back in the black, but a rubbish end to the week has scuppered those ambitions. The gap between cost and value widened by £1,785 in the wrong direction, leaving the deficit at £2,524 and total portfolio value down to £77,024

Worst performer was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which has been one of my best performers over the last few weeks but this week dropped 11% and back into the red.

Continuing the bad theme for pharmas was MTFB:Motif Bio with a 7% drop not helped by announcing a placing. This also went into the red.

N4P:N4 Pharma was already in the red, but dropped 7% and is now 16% under water.

My cunning plan to make a quick buck on MMX:Minds + Machines has failed miserably, with those also dropping 7% this week while the share I sold to buy them went up.

OPTI:Optibiotix issued yet more good news, involving a massive deal with Indian manufacturer Akums and winning best weight management product award at the prestigious NutraIngredients awards. So predictably the share price dropped 2p and cost me £1,200. At least they are still in profit.

Only one candidate for Share of the Week as everything else was either a minuscule rise, no rise or  drop. TLOU:Tlou Energy won it by a mile, climbing 18% and is now only down 7%. If the momentum continues, this should be back in profit next week.




Well, I guess when you look at it on this graph, the drop is actually quite tiny. It was so close to crossing the line though.

Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts



Weekly Change
Cash £7.11
+£0
Portfolio cost £51,874.49
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £47,248.95 (-8.9%) -£985.89
Potential profits £1,728.98
-£1,068.51
Yr 3 Dividends £44.15
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £8,033.77
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £850.20 (19.7%) -£21.25
Total Dividends £1,223.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £14,746.27
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £473.09 (10.9%) -£3.29
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Everything that was in profit except OPTI:Optibiotix swung to a loss. Quite remarkable how consistently badly nearly everything is doing. The deficit on these accounts is £4,582. I'm confident the majority of shares will do well - particularly the ones where I have increased my holding like MTFB:Motif Bio and VRS:Versarien, but at the moment it's all a bit of a disaster.




As with the combined graph, the tick down doesn't look as bad here.

The SIPP looks like this after week 129



Weekly Change
Cash £30.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,291.98
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £29,558.40 (8.3%) -£799.24
Potential profits £3,874.63
-£568.13
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,299.03
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £214.40 (9.4%) -£8.94
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,224.22
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £367.17 (16.1%) -£2.87
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Profits were damaged by the drops in OPTI:Optibiotix and CAML:Central Asia Metals but partly mitigated by the rise in LGEN:Legal & General. IQE:IQE caused the losses to deepen further than the reduced profits.




Still very happy with this chart.

No need to report on the trading account with LION:Lionsgold suspended for months. I'm tempted to just give up on the whole concept, but I think I'll keep it going as an illustration how difficult it is to make money from short term trading, especially when you're as rubbish at it as I am.

This week was meant to be a really great week for OPTI:Optibiotix, with the Vitafoods conference in Geneva and the winning of an award, as well as the announcement of a massive deal with Akums. We're expecting news of the SEED Health contract soon, as the accidentally published press release said the launch as just weeks away.

Most importantly, results will be published on Wednesday. We're not expecting any great revenues, as most of the deals have come after the end of reporting period, and many are for licensing of products that are not on the market yet. However, there is an opportunity for some forward looking statement that could generate a positive response from the share price, or even an announcement of the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics share dividend.

However, the company have been consistent in not attempting to guess at revenues so far, so why would they start now? Also, the stated intention has been to release the news of the share dividend at the last possible minute to prevent traders buying in for short term gain. So it's completely possible the results will do nothing, and if past history is anything to go on, good news tends to drive the share price down!

I can't complain though - my OPTI:Optibiotix holding is making £3,033 paper profit which I could have only dreamed of a few weeks ago when the loss was over £5,000. The fact I'm in profit when the company isn't yet profitable is a great thing, because when they do become profitable heaven knows what will happen!

CAML:Central Asia Metals pay out the dividend on Friday. I'm not sure if it will reach my account in time for next week's roundup. Someone wrote an interesting thought on the bulletin board yesterday. Many people opt for automatic re-investment of their dividends, so for the market makers there is a predictable demand on dividend payment day. Interesting that the share price has dropped so much this week. Could this be orchestrated by the market makers to get their hands on enough cheap shares to meet the dividend re-investment demand? If the share price should miraculously climb through next week back to the highs of a month ago, the automatic re-investment would be at a much higher price than the market makers paid for their shares. Let's see what happens...

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