Sunday, 27 May 2018

Week 146 Review - Portfolio value plummets in crazy volatile week

The week started off quite well but went downhill horribly in the last three days. The deficit increased by £2,671 mainly thanks to the 6p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix which cost around £4,000. You can see that there were some spectacularly good performers to reduce those losses so much, however the portfolio value has now dropped to £74,878.

Worst performer was last week's Share of the Week TLOU:Tlou Energy, which gave up nearly all last week's 18% gain and dropped 15%. Not at all what I was expecting!

OPTI:Optibiotix was next worst, with the 6p amounting to a 9% fall and back into the red for my holding. Why will the market not allow me just a few weeks to enjoy OPTI:Optibiotix being in profit before it all gets snatched away?

BLU:Blue Star Capital dropped another 6% this week despite SatoshiPay announcing a deal. It clearly wasn't a big enough deal to satisfy the market.

Another 6% faller was PAF:Pan African Resources. "Hold on!" I hear you cry - "Where the hell did those come from?". I really like this company but haven't held any for a while. I've not got any gold interest at the moment (LION:Lionsgold doesn't count), so I decided to sell the rest of my LGEN:Legal & General shares in order to try and benefit from a potential short term 100% profit. These should easily be trading for double what they are now, and I believe the problems that caused the drop are behind them. There is also a very healthy dividend and a new project about to start producing.

I sold my 416 LGEN:Legal & General shares at 282.8p, liberating £1,164.50 and making £320.70 (40.2%) profit. There's still a dividend due in June to add to the £147 dividends I've already had. I bought 15,439 PAF:Pan African Resources shares at 7.428p costing £1,164.49. They dropped a little today, and with spread and commission are down 6%.

MTFB:Motif Bio continued their slide with another 5% drop, as did RED:RedT Energy who I'm starting to lose patience with.

That's all the bad news out of the way, now for the good news.

ARL:Atlantis Resources had their suspension lifted and all is looking good for the new enlarged company. Shares climbed by 10% but are still 38% down on my purchase price.

N4P:N4 Pharma had a massive surge and are up 16% on the week, meaning they are within 0.05p of breaking even. Fingers crossed these will go green next week.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shrugged off last week's gloom and rocketed 18%. I'm wondering if some long term OPTI:Optibiotix holders are getting fed up of waiting for free shares and are selling out to bolster their SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics holding with a view to re-investing profits in OPTI:Optibiotix later. That could explain the big drop in one company as the other soars.

Share of the Week slaughtered the competition. VRS:Versarien just would not stop going up, eventually climbing 37% to 91p. Why the hell can't OPTI:Optibiotix do that? Thankfully I'd filled my boots in the mid 60's bringing my weighted average down to 71p, so these are now showing paper profit of £1,488 (27%). As these are so volatile I'm tempted to sell some of my holding with the aim of re-investing after a drop - but i daren't do that with all my holding in case it carries on upwards.



Quite a significant drop over the last 2 weeks, just as it looked like going back into the black.

Here's the ISA and share accounts performance


Weekly Change
Cash £7.11
+£0
Portfolio cost £51,874.49
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £46,426.56 (-10.5%) -£822.39
Potential profits £1,676.87
-£52.11
Yr 3 Dividends £44.15
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £8,033.77
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £829.95 (19.2%) -£20.25
Total Dividends £1,223.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £14,746.27
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £469.85 (10.9%) -£3.24
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

This wasn't too bad because most of the strong performers were in the ISA. The increase in VRS:Versarien almost nullified the losses in paper profit from OPTI:Optibiotix going into the red, but the subsequent deepening of loss took £822 off the portfolio value.




The gap is too wide again, but we're still way above the recent lows.

The SIPP looks like this after week 130



Weekly Change
Cash £235.54
+£205.51
Portfolio cost £27,612.67
+£320.69
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £28,029.50 (1.5%) -£1,849.59
Potential profits £2,095.10
-£1,779.53
Yr 3 Dividends £205.50
+£205.50
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£320.70
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £293.86 (12.8%) +£79.46
Total Dividends £1,121.60
+£205.50
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£320.70
Average monthly cash profit £381.89 (16.6%) +£14.72
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A fantastic £205.50 dividend from CAML:Central Asia Metals explains the increase in cash. I'll hold this until I next sell something rather trying to invest such a small sum. The portfolio was absolutely hammered, mainly by OPTI:Optibiotix, but there were also 4% drops in CAML:Central Asia Metals and IQE:IQE. Performance is absolutely brilliant though, with the LGEN:Legal & General sale taking the long term average to 16.6%, and that's based on the current, enlarged portfolio cost so is as pessimistic a figure as there could be.

It wasn't long ago that nearly every share in this portfolio was in profit. Now only CAML:Central Asia Metals is. That's the downside of the realised performance being so good - I sold nearly all my profitable shares! I still prefer the model of investing in potential growth shares and selling when they become profitable, but it does mean long periods in the red. I just need to be patient and wait for the growth to happen.




Still in the black, but only just!

LION:Lionsgold is still suspended so no point in talking about the trading account

I watched the CAML:Central Asia Metals share price with interest this week after reading a theory on a bulletin board that the share price would be walked up by the market makers so any automatic dividend re-investment would be at a premium to shares bought cheaply following an engineered drop last week. The fact that the share price ended up 4% lower than the week before suggests that theory is a duffer. Ah well - it would have added some spice to my trading account if it had played out.

It was a horrible week for my OPTI:Optibiotix shares. The week started so well with the formal announcement of what we already knew, that a deal had been done with Seed Health. This could be a big one given the potential size of the US market and the links between Seed and various high profile celebrities.

However the share price absolutely tanked following the annual results. I really don't understand why. The year end was back in November so most of the deals hadn't been done, and there certainly wasn't time to get any revenue even if they had been. The sell-off of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics meant there was a paper profit, but if the company are genuinely planning to give that back to shareholders it won't last. There is a risk that they need the interest in that company to keep in profit until we are able to break even on sales alone. That could delay any handout of shares for at least another year.

I think that's what triggered a lot of the selling. Long term holders were hoping for news of a dividend in the form of free shares, and got fed up of waiting so bailed out some of their holding to put into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics directly, as that is showing much more growth momentum. Personally I think that's a short termist view, and for those with the patience to hold onto their OPTI:Optibiotix shares, the rewards will eventually be much greater.

I was expecting the next sell-off to be Sweetbiotix, however it's looking like the probiotics division may be next in line. The Microbiome Invest Congress was held on 23rd May. Dr Luis Gosalbez is the Director of Business Development at OPTI:Optibiotix and was there to pitch the probiotics division in the "Pitch Your Microbes" final. This was a massive opportunity to present the division, and cholesterol/blood pressure reducing LP-LDL to a wealth of investors and pharma companies. I can't believe that this sort of exposure won't have a positive impact on the share price and give that long-awaited re-rate to the 100p range. It took way less than that to get VRS:Versarien from 66p to 91p last week.

So, it may be a quiet week next week, or I may decide to top-slice some VRS:Versarien profits. I bought 7,676 shares for £5,439 that are worth £6,927. If I sell 1,676 then I would make £291 (25%) profit and liberate £1,467 which would pretty much skim off the profits and leave the value the same as I invested in the first place. If I do this, I would definitely not re-invest in another share, but hold the cash for the almost inevitable drop back to the 70p range. If they don't drop, then I still have 6,000 and still have over £1,000 paper profit while banking my £291. If they do drop then I won't have lost all my paper profits, and will end up with more than the original 7,676 shares. Hmm - it's tempting...

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