Saturday, 9 February 2019

Week 183 Review - Promising start obliterated over last two days

The week was going pretty well aside from a slight slip in OPTI:Optibiotix, but CAML:Central Asia Metals was going great, and even the trading account holding went into profit. However the last 2 days were a disaster, with OPTI:Optibiotix slipping further and most of the gains made early in the week wiped out. Portfolio value dropped by £3,162 so the buffer between value and cost is down to £2,028 and overall portfolio value dips back below £100K at £99,327. All rather upsetting.

Worst performer was N4P:N4 Pharma which has seen a mini rally over the last few weeks, but a placing announced today caused the price to plummet down to the placing price, so it's down 15% and losing 56%.

RED:RedT Energy dropped another 8% for no apparent reason, and is sliding relentlessly as holders continue to doubt they can turn a profit, despite having a great product. These are 59% down after looking like things might be improving a few weeks ago.

MMX:Minds + Machines is being played by traders if the recent invasion of the bulletin board by trolls is anything to go on. I still believe this is a very cash generative company - they just need to prove it and dish some out as a dividend. Another 7% drop this week sees it losing 36% now.

IQE:IQE is also under continued shorting pressure, and lacklustre results from the chip manufacturers has hit them badly this week, dropping 6% in my SIPP and 8% in my trading account.

OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 4p (6%) the same as last week, despite more good news. I fear these are set to drift until either news of revenues or one of the anticipated big deals. I still have paper profits of £12,000 which are the only things keeping my portfolios in the black.

There was some good news this week. PAF:Pan African Resources continues a very slow and steady rise, which is the way I like to see it, and the way I made a lot of money from this company in the past. Up 5% this week they are now up 38% altogether and making £544 potential profit. I think they can double from here based on the new project that has recently come on line.

TAP:Taptica announced a merger and soared, but at the end of the week plummeted again. That averaged out as a 7% rise for the week, but they are still 30% down.

IKA:Ilika won Share of the Week 2 weeks ago, then lost a big chunk last week, but this week got it back by climbing 9%. Still a long, long way to go before making up the 61% deficit and breaking even.

Share of the Week is TRX:Tissue Regenix, which issued a very healthy trading statement early in the week and climbed 11%. This still leaves them 61% down, but I am now getting more hopeful of a rally here.




A desperate plunge over the last 2 weeks looks pretty bad




Trendline looks like it will stay up for a while, but in a couple more months the peak will dominate and we'll be in trouble.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £39.24
-£3.67
Portfolio cost £56,971.94
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £56,841.57 (-0.2%) -£1,939.78
Potential profits £8,720.25
-£1,920.54
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £136.83 (2.9%) -£5.26
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £488.78 (10.3%) -£2.68
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash was just a correction as I checked my account and it was slightly out. I suspect I missed a monthly ISA fee one month, although that's £3.75. This month's fee was covered by a £20 cash bonus I got for transferring some pension money, which I'm just going to take off the fees rather than treat as actual income.

Once again nearly all the drop in value was down to falling profits as the rest of the portfolio stayed pretty stable. OPTI:Optibiotix does rather control the performance week by week.




Drat! The buffer is gone




It's tricky to see, but the accounts have slipped to a loss. I have so much trouble keeping these ones in the black.

The SIPP looks like this after week 167



Weekly Change
Cash £122.76
-£0.08
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £40,814.39 (7.9%) -£2,236.29
Potential profits £6,897.59
-£1,034.85
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£12.30 (-0.4%) +£1.20
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £300.32 (9.5%) -£1.81
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash would normally drop by about £16 with the monthly fees, but most were covered by the transfer bonus. Half the impact was reduced profits, and half was deepening losses. I'm getting a bit edgy - I feel the need to bank some profit, but can't bring myself to sell anything just yet.

Cripplingly bad news about the pension transfer. Legal & General have refused to do it, stating the minimum amount they are willing to transfer is £2,000. They really are bloody useless! It took them almost 2 weeks to come up with that. This means I have to wait another 2 months before I can do the transfer, so may as well forget all my plans as things will be very different then. I've changed the investments in the pension so the go into a safe bonds fund which should guarantee I get the £2,000 every 4 months for my SIPP. It's very frustrating, but the only way I can get my employer contribution, which is half the monthly injection.




It's not dipped far below the recent dips, so still hopeful the buffer can be maintained.




We're below the trendline which is a worry.

The trading account looks like this



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,490.65 (-35.8%) +£13.68
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £29.05 (15%) -£1.03
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.49 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

That's a surprise - the trading account out-performing the other accounts. There were a few decent rises this week, and it would have been even better if CAML:Central Asia Metals had held on to the mid-week price, which saw it go into profit of £12. If trade talks with China would stop being so volatile there may be a chance for copper prices to sustain their rise. I'm sure it's got nothing to do with the Americans manipulating the market as they alternate between positive and negative statements week after week. I suspect that would be highly illegal - and I'm sure none of them are making any money off the back of it...



Still creeping upwards.




We'll be above the trendline if this continues.

That's it for another week. There's a big probiotics conference next week where OPTI:Optibiotix are presenting three papers. That's going to result in some pretty massive industry exposure, and hopefully yet more deals. Surely these back-to-back 6% declines have to turn around soon? If they don't then we'll be back in top-up territory. 70p would see me sell a few other shares even at a loss because I really can't see it staying down there for long - if it ever gets there at all.

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