Sunday, 17 February 2019

Week 184 Review - Big week for bad news

I wrote a short blog on Thursday detailing the misery of "Bad news day", and that day single-handedly dragged the whole portfolio down this week. It was heading for a modest gain, but ended up with a £1,263 reduction in value, with the buffer between value and cost only £765 and total value down to £98,327.

It will come as no surprise that the worst performer this week was MTFB:Motif Bio. The FDA rejection caused a 27% potential profit to drop 96% of the amount I payed for the shares end up at a 69% loss. That's paper loss of £1,745 from what was around £600 paper profit on Wednesday. There is one tiny glimmer of light in this disaster. I've been watching CWR:Ceres Power for ages, and vowed to buy back in if the price went below 150p which it did on Monday. In order to buy some, I sold 25% of my MTFB:Motif Bio holding. That was 2,530 shares sold at 42.7725p making profit of £263.08 (32.1%). I used the proceeds to buy 733 shares of CWR:Ceres Power at 145.9p costing £1,081.40. They slipped a bit lower and so are 7% down including commission, but I'm still happy I bought when I did and glad to be back in.

KIBO:Kibo Energy waited until later in the day to deliver the bombshell that TANESCO have suddenly decided KIBO:Kibo Energy don't qualify to apply for a Power Purchase Agreement. This follows years (literally) of discussion and "close cooperation". The share price pretty much halved, but as it has already dropped so far, the drop against my original purchase price was 12%. These are now down by 89% and losing £2,343. I have a horrible feeling this is going to go south and I'll end up with a big loss which will have a dire effect on my performance stats.

N4P:N4 Pharma was another big loser, falling 7% possibly in sympathy to MTFB:Motif Bio. I may give up investing in junior pharma companies. It seems to me everything is stacked against them.

There was some nice price action this week. OPTI:Optibiotix yo-yoed quite a bit but ended up 1p ahead. It's only a tiny percentage but worth £800.

CEY:Centamin gave a very upbeat statement about gold reserves at their Ivory Coast property, which helped the price climb by 6%. That leaves my ISA holding only 5% (£81) down, and my SIPP holding 17% (£343) up, so looking good and some nice dividends not too far away.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics had a great week, climbing 7% of my purchase price in the ISA and 12% in the SIPP. That leaves the ISA holding down 9% (£162) and the SIPP holding up 38% (£375). On Friday morning I almost sold them at 19.75p which would have made £469 (47%) profit, but it was below my target of 20p so I didn't accept the offer. I really wish I had, as it dropped to 18.5p by the end of the day. I wanted the cash to buy VRS:Versarien, which is dropping to my target price of under 100p. I need to be ready with the cash if it happens, as I don't think it will stay there for long. Shame it didn't drop earlier in the week else I may have sacrificed some more MTFB:Motif Bio shares, which would have been a great move!

CAML:Central Asia Metals had a great week, climbing 9% and going to paper profit of £2,111 (39%). This year's dividend is going to be massive - I'm very excited!

Share of the Week is once again IKA:Ilika, which has at last shown some signs it may be able to sell its tech. The price climbed an impressive 20 and is now only 21% down on my purchase price. I think this was one of my worst timed purchases, but patience may yet be rewarded, unlike with most of my disasters which all seem to be getting worse.




Ouch - that's no gap at all!




Well below the trendline. It's not good.

The ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £28.03
-£11.21
Portfolio cost £57,246.22
+£274.28
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £54,808.06 (-4.3%) -£2,307.79
Potential profits £8,331.17
-£389.08
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,077.60
+£263.07
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £172.65 (3.6%) +£35.82
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,774.72
+£263.07
Average monthly cash profit £492.32 (10.3%) +£3.54
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Portfolio cost went up as a result of re-investing profits from MTFB:Motif Bio in CWR:Ceres Power and cash went down £11 as I wanted as many shares as I could buy so included some of the ISA cash. Portfolio value savaged by £2,307 as a result of MTFB:Motif Bio and KIBO:Kibo Energy crashing, but potential profits hardly affected, as OPTI:Optibiotix increased a little, so just the remaining MTFB:Motif Bio profits were lost. The sale increased the average performance for year 4 by £35 a month, but had a tiny effect on long term performance, improving it by just £3 a month. The percentage would have dropped from 10.3% to 10.2% this week, but the sale kept it at 10.3%.



I forgot to add the increase in cost to the chart, but it will be there next week. Too busy being depressed about the drop in value to notice that.




Into the red and well below the trendline.

The SIPP looks like this after week 168



Weekly Change
Cash £122.76
+£0
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £41,845.62 (10.6%) +£1,031.23
Potential profits £7,920.30
+£1,022.71
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£11.28 (-0.4%) +£1.02
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £298.53 (9.5%) -£1.79
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Excellent week with nearly all shares increasing in value and a very different picture to the ISA.




Still a nice gap here, but there needs to be to offset the ISA woes.





Back on the trendline, so I'm happy

The trading account looks like this after week 134



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,504.07 (-35.2%) +£13.42
Potential profits £12.99
+£12.99
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £28.08 (14.5%) -£0.97
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.48 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A rare sight to see positive potential profits in this account! CAML:Central Asia Metals is on a roll, and hopefully can keep climbing to my target of 300p when I may consider selling and getting this portfolio into profit. Everything else in this account is desperate, so all my hopes are pinned on CAML:Central Asia Metals keeping up the good work.



That's what I call a sustained rise!




We're above the trendline, which is about as positive as I can get about this chart.

That's it for another week. A week of much turmoil. I'm very concerned with the behaviour of the FDA towards MTFB:Motif Bio. They had plenty of opportunity to mention they wanted more information on potential liver toxicity, so why wait until after the submission? All this does is cripple the MTFB:Motif Bio share price and makes them a perfect target for an aggressive buy-out - hmm - by an American pharma company maybe? Nah - that's me being cynical - must behave!

As for TANESCO - I really haven't a clue what's going on there, but I'm tempted to be a hell of a lot more cynical. Years of effort has been pretty much wasted. If they never had any intention of granting a PPA then they should have said so from the outset. It's cost millions to get this far, and much of that is debt hanging around KIBO:Kibo Energy's neck, so I'm really concerned about the viability of the company without this agreement.

I hope we don't get another day like Thursday for a long, long time...

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