Saturday, 19 October 2019

Week 219 Review - The bounce back continues

I wrote a blog on Wednesday because I was afraid by today things wouldn't be so great. I was right, as both Thursday and Friday saw sizable drops. It's still an upbeat blog though, as the combined portfolios climbed by £11,677 and narrowed the deficit between cost and value to £17,993. Overall value has increased to £86,106.

There were no big losers this week, but quite a lot of small losers. Fortunately some of my biggest holdings did well.

JLP:Jubilee Metals continued it's journey upwards, climbing 7%. This is now down by 17%, but there's an excellent chance good profits will be announced this year, and when Kabwe starts production the share price should be due a re-rate.

OPTI:Optibiotix is on one of its rolls, and one bit of decent news could cause a big spike. We're getting hints at sizable retail deals for our own products and for products formulated specially for the retailers, so although the margins will be low, the revenue could be huge. The shares climbed 11p which is 16% and accounts for most of this week's gains.

16% isn't good enough for Share of the Week though. OPTI's off-shoot company SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics soared by 21% in my SIPP to go 27% up with potential profits of £655. Shame this is my long term holding, as my trading shares are in the ISA and are still 9% down.




Looking good. Around half of the banked profits I had re-invested have been clawed back. A couple more weeks like this one would see me back in the black.




Above the trend line and lets hope it stays there.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £3.24
-£3.12
Portfolio cost £57,768.95
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £45,826.41 (-20.7%) +£6,690.62
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£68.61 (-1.4%) +£6.86
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £422.81 (8.8%) -£1.94
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

On Wednesday I had paper profit again as OPTI:Optibiotix climbed to 69p, but by Friday it was back down to 64p and a loss. The reduction in losses of £6,690 was fantastic though, as OPTI:Optobiotix, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and JLP:Jubilee Metals all climbed significantly higher.




This account is still closer to the injection value than the cost, so a way to go yet.




The right side of the trend line, but can I drag it above zero?

The SIPP looks like this after week 203



Weekly Change
Cash £6.17
+£0
Portfolio cost £43,965.42
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£38,943.93 (-11.4%) +£4,982.46
Potential profits £943.39
+£344.49
Yr 4 Dividends £361.99
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.10
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,161.95
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £127.05 (3.5%) -£2.76
Total Dividends £1,704.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.13
+£0
Total Profit from sales £11,706.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £277.14 (7.6%) -£1.38
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

Similar story to the ISA, but this time we also have an increase in paper profits of £344 thanks to SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. There was a slight drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals which reduced this a little, but next week the dividend will arrive so that will inject a few hundred quid. I need a big sale as 7.6% is way too low for long term average profit, but it's going to need something quite big to get back to 10% and I want to hold this batch of SBTX.




Pretty close to going back into the black, which is where this account traditionally sits.




Well above the trend line and with more chance of pivoting above the zero line.

The trading account looks like this after week 169



Weekly Change
Cash £35.04
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,292.06 (-44.3%) +£4.39
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £0 (0%) +£0
Dividends £34.72
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.76 (-0.4%) +£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

Tiny increase this week, but better than a drop. Still miles off being able to sell anything.




Good job it was an interest free loan to prime this account as I've not returned very much to my bank account! I was hoping the injection line would be down to zero by now as I pulled out profits and just kept the £2,500 cost stable by buying £500 worth each time I sold. Epic fail!




Just about back on the trend line but needs to be well above it.

There's so much happening with OPTI:Optibiotix at the moment I'm really excited. The momentum is building and so many of the deals have the potential to bring in bug revenues. It's the sheer quantity of deals that is so amazing, and now we are seeing the ingredients inside actual products. If we can just ensure that H2 meets income expectations, then there should be a surge to our broker target of 97p.

It's great being invested in a company where there's a thrill of excitement every morning wondering if today will be the big news. We've had tons of small news, quite a bit of medium news, but as far as I can see there is potential for at least 6 or 7 items of massive news. Sweetbiotix supply contract, LPGOS deal, retail deal, Probiotix IPO, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dividend, SBTX deal with multinational and LP-LDL pharma trial results.

I guess I shouldn't lose sight of the rest of my portfolio. Most of that has been trashed recently so it's depressing to look at it.

I have so many companies that are over 80% down on when I bought them, and I fear for their ability to turn such a drop around.

BLCC:Block Commodities emerged from AFPO:African Potash and is only listed on NEX. That's down 101% thanks to commission and I have no hope of getting back my £707.

BLU:Blue Star Capital is down 91% as it appears Satoshipay is never going to get anywhere. Fortunately I'll only lose £520 on that.

KIBO:Kibo Energy had so much promise and I bought into the story, but they are down 95% and I'll lose quite big on this one with a £2,635 investment.

MAIS:Maistro was formed from BLUR:Blur Group and they have de-listed and are down 108% if you include commission so that's a puny £122 loss as I bought them very early in my investment career.

MTFB:Motif Bio is probably the most upsetting disaster as I bought a load more after successful phase III trials, not expecting the FDA to screw them over. The chances of them going bust are very high now. My holding is down 99% and I stand to lose £2,521

RED:RedT Energy looked like it had nailed the future of power grid storage with its vanadium redox flow machines, but you have to sell them to make any money, and with gigantic cash burn they are pretty much doomed. They are down 91% and I stand to lose £1,092.

TRK:Torotrak went bust, but the shares still sit in my account. I hardly bought any so will only lose £106 when I fanally write them off.

N4P:N4 Pharma had a diverse range of products so I thought I was investing in a relatively low risk company, until it turned out none of their re-formulations worked and they trashed that whole side of the company. Now they are a one-trick pony with a potential vector for delivering cancer treatments, and these sort of things don't have a great track record of success so I suspect I will wave goodbye to £1,244 as these are down 85%.

I bought SAE:Simex Atlantis Energy because I was sold on the benefits of tidal electricity, but they don't seem to be making any money out of it and are spending lots. These are down 88%, but I have a little hope for them. I will lose £659 if they go bust.

TRX:Tissue Regenix was another great promise, but again they are spending way more money than they are making, and it hasn't helped that Neil Woodford was heavily invested and has been offloading. They are down 88% and I'll lose £1,800 when they go bust.

So I make that a total of £11,406 that I'll most likely have to write off as a loss. My total realised profits over the 4 years are £31,931, so it looks like I'll lose a third of that. I'd still be making around 6% long term average profit though, so even with these disasters it's better than a building society.

You never know - some of them may yet turn things around...

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