Saturday, 5 October 2019

Week 217 Review - Value increases but misery continues

I should be happy this week as OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 4p. That should have given me a £4,000 increase in portfolio value, but all I have is a £2,737 increase thanks to some big drops elsewhere. At least it is an increase! Deficit between cost and value has reduced to £36,470 and total value is £67,644.

Biggest loser was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which dropped 10% in my ISA and 14% in my SIPP, the latter fall wiping out all paper profits. I wish we'd get the "imminent" announcement of a major deal that was promised a long, long time ago.

IQE:IQE is one of my biggest holdings and dropped 8%, wiping out most of last week's gains. I am still optimistic in the long term future of this company, but there's no sign of any improvement in the near term.

MTFB:Motif Bio confirmed that everything has gone tits up and they're going to flog off their rights to Iclaprim and become a shell company hoping to reverse into something. That's pretty much what I expected to happen. Well done FDA - your mates can swoop in for a bargain now you've screwed us over.

OPTI:Optibiotix wins Share of the Week because nothing else climbed by more than 5%. The 4p rise was 6% of purchase price and means these are now down by 29% and losing £19,221. The fragment of good news is that 47p is now above the price I paid for my last lot, so something to smile about. Go Figure muesli pots also won the Grocers best breakfast product of the year award, so that may help get the product in stores around the world.




Much joy as we cross back to the right side of the orange line. Scant pleasure seeing as it's the red line I should be above!




Still dragging the trend line in a steeper drop.

The ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £6.36
+£0
Portfolio cost £57,768.95
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £35,409.10 (-38.7%) +£1,659.16
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£82.35 (-1.7%) +£10.29
Total Dividends £1,342.30
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £426.77 (8.9%) -£1.97
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

Very little change. In terms of getting something with potential profits, my smallest loss is IQE:IQE on 23%. That was meant to be a short term holding area for guaranteed quick gains. How wrong was I?




Fairly simple really. I need OPTI:Optibiotix to stage a massive recovery, and my small caps to start making a profit if I want to turn around this bleak picture.




In about 3 months I'll lose all evidence this was ever in the black from my 12 month chart.

The SIPP looks like this after week 201



Weekly Change
Cash £17.96
+£0
Portfolio cost £43,965.42
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£30,926.84 (-29.7%) +£1,125.49
Potential profits £230.85
-£447.63
Yr 4 Dividends £361.99
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.10
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,161.95
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £133.83 (3.7%) -£3.04
Total Dividends £1,704.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.13
+£0
Total Profit from sales £11,706.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £280.16 (7.6%) -£1.40
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics got hammered and all paper profits were wiped out, and CAML:Central Asia Metals not only fell, but went ex-dividend too which lopped off another 6.5p. That led to the £447 drop in potential profit.

My average profit is slowly dwindling and there's not much prospect of turning that around any time soon.




If this one ever goes below the orange line I'll be devastated.




It's going to take a £5,000 increase just to get back to the trend line.

Here's the trading account after week 167



Weekly Change
Cash £35.04
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,249.39 (-46.2%) -£47.56
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £0 (0%) +£0
Dividends £34.72
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.77 (-0.4%) +£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

A bad week for this account, with no prospect of a turn around.






Back below the trend line.

I'm feeling in a state of abject misery as I write this, as I feel so helpless watching the share prices of just about everything I hold collapse. I guess that's a risk of supporting pre-profit AIM companies, where the rewards can be so great, but the risks so high. My dabble into pharma has proved that. You'd think successful phase III results would be enough, but the world is stacked against the little guys and what seemed like a dead cert with MTFB:Motif Bio now looks like a dead duck and a £2,500 loss.

I still retain hope. When asked if deals announced over the last 12 months were still ongoing, the OPTI:Optibiotix CEO responded that they were, and more in addition to those. There are so many irons n the fire that surely one of them must trigger a rise in the share price.

Let's see what next week brings...

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