Saturday, 7 March 2020

Week 239 Review - And still the slide continues

Generally this wasn't such a bad week, with some small recoveries in shares affected by last weeks crash. In fact on Wednesday evening I was £1,500 up. However, OPTI:Optibiotix lost 4p at the end of the week which cost me £4,200 and my second biggest holding CAML:Central Asia Metals also had a bad week, so I ended up down by £4,465. That widens the deficit between cost and value to £43,058 and reduces the portfolio value to £64,147.

Worst performer was CAML:Central Asia Metals, which along with other industrial metals producers got hammered for a second week and lost 8%. They now have a P/E ratio of 8.2, which is crazy for such a reliable company. It means their dividend yield is now 8.45%, and will be at least that forever if you buy at these levels.

OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 4p, which is 6% and was really annoying. You can buy these for 49p now - that's crazy - I want some more!

Those were the only big fallers this week, so there was definitely a bit of a pause from last week's sell-off.

TRMR:Tremor climbed 5% and I'm quite hopeful, once the market sorts itself out. They are in the trading account so not meant to be a long term hold, but they do pay a reasonable dividend.

JLP:Jubilee Metals bounced back 7% this week, but are still 19% down after going so close to being in the black a few weeks ago. My levels of frustration are quite high.

Share of the Week is IKA:Ilika, which would have been almost in profit if they hadn't announced a placement on Friday and generated a dip. They still climbed 11% and are only 12% down. I think things are starting to happen here, so when the open offer arrives I will be taking my share. If they can crack the big car battery development, then this could turn out to be a better investment than I first imagined. There's still a sliver of doubt that they are more interested in the science than the commercials, but with the right business partner they could pull it off.




Looks like my worst ever position. Never mind 'eh.




Yep - biggest ever deficit.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £9.69
-£3.75
Portfolio cost £57,783.58
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £33,189.40 (-42.6%) -£2,018.61
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£26.96 (-0.6%) +£0.36
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £387.09 (8.0%) -£1.69
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 12.5%
+0%
Compound performance 57%
+0%

The OPTI:Optibiotix drop was mitigated a little by rises elsewhere, particularly JLP:Jubilee Metals. Cash dropped a little thanks to the monthly fees. Not much else to say.




Abject misery.




Equals the worst ever deficit.

The SIPP looks like this after week 223



Weekly Change
Cash £47.72
-£11.69
Portfolio cost £46,995.31
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£29,731.68 (-36.7%) -£2,454.19
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£16.06 (-0.4%) -£2.47
Total Dividends £1,899.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,549.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £271.07 (6.9%) -£1.45
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 10.9%
-0.1%
Compound performance 47%
+0%

This account has been hit worse due to the CAML:Central Asia Metals drop in addition to OPTI:Optibiotix. Monthly charges were also paid, so the year 5 performance is looking pretty bad as I haven't sold anything or had any dividends yet, so we're just seeing the monthly fee.




Yes, the green line has gone just below the orange for the first time ever.




Worst ever deficit by over £2,000

The trading account looks like this after week 189



Weekly Change
Cash £48.24
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,120.80 (-51.7%) +£7.63
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £1.73 (0.9%) -£0.06
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.38 (-0.2%) +£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection -0.2%
+0%
Compound performance -1%
+0%

Incredibly, this account went up! Rises in TEK:Tekcapital and TRMR:Tremor were enough to make up for the losses in CAML:Central Asia Metals and IQE:IQE. Still no sign of TALY:Tally re-listing.




I hope the recovery gets steeper than that!




Total rubbish.

Here's the fantasy magic formula account



Change
Cash £748.50
+£0
Portfolio cost £29,846.39
+£0
Portfolio sell value         £26,675.83 (-8.9%) -£4,751.83
Potential profits £381.16
-£895.50
Dividends £0
+£0
Profit from sales £678.96
+£0

This is the change over the last 2 weeks, as I was unable to take a snapshot last week. The fall in value is around 10% which matches that of the FTSE. Potential profits have been hammered, but at least there are some.

Nearly everything is down, with the only shares in the black being PLUS:Plus500, PSN. Persimmon, IGG:IG Group Holdings, ASY:Andrews Sykes Group, RDW:Redrow and BWY:Bellway. Everything else is making a loss.

I started my in-depth research of FXPO:Ferrexpo, with my main priority trying to work out why the shares are so cheap given their fundamentals. I soon found out why! Their CEO is being charged with all sorts of stuff by the Ukrainian government. They have frozen all his assets, including his enormous shareholding in FXPO. That wouldn't be a worry on its own, other than the potential of a forced sale, but you would expect lots of institutions to take those up in a controlled manner.

The problem is how FXPO came to own their mine in the first place. The ex-CEO is accused of driving the mine into bankruptcy so he could buy it cheap on behalf of FXPO. So the risk is that the Ukrainian government will regard the ownership of the mine to be void, and seize the whole lot.

Would they though? I honestly don't know. It's a very successful mine and bringing lots of tax revenue, so would they risk losing that to punish the ex-CEO, when now it's part owned by thousands of shareholders? I think the potential rewards are high enough to risk adding this to my pension in a few weeks.

Next on my list for research is PLUS:Plus500. I'll take a look at them during the week. I'm suspecting there's fear of regulators curtailing their spread betting as people can lose so much money, but their share price has been increasing rather than decreasing, so I'll just need to dig deeper into the figures to see what's causing them to be so high up my rankings.

I've done something quite rash while writing this blog. I shouldn't allow myself to get incensed at the injustice of a big market crash when I have no cash to take advantage, but I am incensed and I have acted in order to get some bargains.

I had a special offer come through from Barclaycard for £4,000 at 0% interest until September 2021. Given that I've now paid off my mortgage and have no other loans, and given it's 18 months away, I've accepted the offer. I may come to regret it in September 2021. I only need to pay back £222 a month to get it interest free, which is quite a lot less than my mortgage was.

My aim is to add £2,000 to my SIPP to buy CAML:Central Asia Metals, and get £500 back from the tax man. The other £2,000 will go in my ISA, and you guessed it - I'll get bargain OPTI:Optibiotix shares at 49p. That's assuming the money arrives on Monday and there isn't a gigantic surge in share prices before I can act.

If I do this, then I'll feel the crash was an opportunity rather than a complete nightmare. Both these companies are superb, and I won't sit by as they get hammered without taking advantage.

Buying CAML:Central Asia Metals with cash means I can still launch my magic formula experiment, as I don't want to delay starting that by another 4 months to use the pension transfer for CAML.

Let's hope we see a recovery next week - but not until after I've bought my shares!

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