Saturday, 14 March 2020

Week 240 review - Another massive drop

This week wasn't as bad as 2 weeks ago, but it was very nearly as bad. Add to that buying a load of shares on Monday and Tuesday thinking they were bargains, only to find they were about to get a lot cheaper. The combined portfolios dropped by an eye-watering £16,073 and the deficit between cost and value increased to £59,131. What's really depressing is the total value of the portfolio is only £52,305 which is less than half what I paid for it.

Worst performer was TRMR:Tremor which fell 19%, but is only in my trading account so didn't cost me much.

More serious was the 12p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix which is an 18% dip and cost me £13,200 of the £16,000 lost this week. The share price is down 48% just a few weeks after it came within a whisker of breaking even. My purchase on Tuesday was at 42.78p. If I'd waited 3 days I could have got them for 35p. It's really quite shocking this has dropped so far given the profits that are going to be made in 2020. It looks like there's a lot of private investors that had spread bets open and had to close their positions after margin calls, causing a domino effect. I still think traders are in control and able to manipulate the share price. Somebody's doing something very clever with it, but there's no transparency whatsoever. Even my purchase on Tuesday was shown as a sell, so the system is set up with smoke and mirrors. That's why they will never report sales and purchases properly, as this sort of price manipulation would be much harder to get away with.

IQE:IQE and JLP:Jubilee Metals both dropped 17% and are both in my top 5 major holdings. I can't believe that even precious metal prices and mining shares are dropping. That's meant to be a safe haven!

MMX:Minds + Machines was within 1% of getting in the black 3 weeks ago, but a 10% fall this week means it's 19% down now. Looks like I'll be waiting to get that maiden dividend.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is my 2nd largest holding, and my purchase on Monday at 158.6p could have been made at 145.6p if I had waited. I could howl with frustration! It dropped 7% this week, which compared to the other shares isn't too bad. If the price stays like this for another 10 days I'll be putting half my pension transfer in here to get back to my target 5,000 shares. The other half will start off my magic formula experiment.

IKA:Ilika reversed last week's Share of the Week performance and dropped 6%, which is about half last week's gains, so not too big a drop.

There is no Share of the Week, as nothing increased in value.




Good grief!




Nearly £60,000 in the red could be regarded as a bit of a disaster.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £55.48
+£45.79
Portfolio cost £59,787.80
+£2,004.22
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £26,484.92 (-55.7%) -£8,708.70
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£26.12 (-0.5%) +£0.84
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £385.47 (7.7%) -£1.62
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 11.8%
-0.7%
Compound performance 54%
-3%

I added £40 cash to take part in an IKA:Ilika open offer, as I'm always in favour of buying shares with no commission if the chance arises. Portfolio cost went up due to the OPTI:Optibiotix purchase and portfolio value plummeted by £8,708. The increase in portfolio cost and the extra injection of cash means my performance based on injection value dropped by 0.7% but is still above 10%. Performance against portfolio cost dropped to 7.7%. There was also a reduction in the compound performance of 3% due to the increased injection.




Not much I can say other than "bugger!"




Huge deficit, and I suspect it will be around for a while yet.

Here's the SIPP after week 224

Weekly Change
Cash £48.51
+£0.79
Portfolio cost £49,176.17
+£2,180.86
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£24,755.65 (-49.7%) -£7,156.89
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£15.06 (-0.4%) -£1.00
Total Dividends £1,899.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,549.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £269.86 (6.6%) -£1.21
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 10.2%
-0.7%
Compound performance 44%
-3%

Cash is up a fraction due to some of the £2000 injection not being spent. I can't work out why the portfolio cost is calculated as having risen by £2,180 when the shares were just under £2,000, but the current figure is right so maybe the previous one was slightly under what it should have been.

Another massive drop, and the injection has also damaged my performance, with the performance over injection about to drop below 10% when I add £2,000 in 10 days time.




The account that had never dropped below injection amount has now done exactly that, and by some.




A familiar vision of misery.

The trading account, which was starting to look promising, is now looking less promising after week 190.



Weekly Change
Cash £48.24
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £912.87 (-60.7%) -£207.93
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £1.68 (0.9%) -£0.05
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.37 (-0.2%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection -0.2%
+0%
Compound performance -1%
+0%

A huge 10% drop, with everything falling.




Hmm - I think I need to adjust the chart axis for next week so we can see under £1,000




It was looking hopeful 3 weeks ago. Less hopeful now.

I've decided to give up reporting on the virtual magic formula portfolio. I'll just keep an eye on it and report on the real magic formula shares as part of the SIPP roundup. At the moment CAML:Central Asia Metals is a magic formula top 30 share, so I'll be adding more as I'd rather get that to 5,000 just before the dividend and while I can guarantee the dividend will be huge for the tiny price I'll be paying.

The other share I'll buy is still FXPO:Ferrexpo as it's way above everything else in my ranking. If the mine gets confiscated then I'll lose my £1,000, but I think there's more likely a 200% climb in the offing, and at this price a big dividend which will help my average performance figures get back on track. I'll gradually move all my SIPP shares to dividend paying companies once I sell the existing holdings. Fortunately I'm anticipating OPTI:Optibiotix becoming a dividend paying share in the not too distant future, as I'm hanging onto them.

The American stock market waited for the UK stock market to close before putting on a huge 9.4% rally. The UK market has been hit much harder by this crash, which always seems to happen. I'm really hoping we get a bit of recovery next week, as I hate to see the portfolio value less than half what I paid for it. On the other hand, I don't want it to climb too much before I get my pension transfer...

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