Saturday, 4 April 2020

Week 243 Review - One of the best weeks ever

What a week! When OPTI:Optibiotix flies, it really flies. Some great deals were announced and the end result was an increase in portfolio value of £15,257. That narrowed the gap between cost and value to £49,384 and increased the total portfolio value to £61,067.

Only one big loser this week. TEK:Tekcapital dropped 7% which is probably profit taking after a bit of a spike last week. Although profits are still a little way off, I believe their stake in Salarius alone will be enough to get a decent return from my holding. Maybe it was a mistake for the trading account, but with salt reduction in snacks a very big market, Salarius could do very well - eventually.

IKA:Ilika climbed 5% this week and is slowly recovering from the crash. They are 25% down, but that's one of my better shares. I think there's so much interest in their car battery that they should get to the point where I can consider selling them. They're not a long term hold for me as I still believe the board are scientists and not businessmen.

TLOU:Tlou Energy announced they have an interim Power Purchase Agreement, which should have caused a massive re-rate. I think it would have done if the operation hadn't been shut down during the Coronavirus lockdown. Shares climbed 6% but are still 78% down. I never lost confidence that these will come good, but I could have bought them a lot cheaper than I did. I've made £1,200 profit from previous trades, but my current holding is £2,111 down so I'm still in the red.

MMX:Minds + Machines were almost in profit before the crash, and dropped horribly. This week they recovered 7% but are still 29% down. They announced they were planning a dividend, but with everyone postponing their dividend there may be disappointment ahead. Having said that, I can't think of any way their business could be affected, as people still need to renew their domain names.

TRMR:Tremor have been a total disaster in my trading account. They recovered 10% this week after good results, but they are still 57% down and it will take a long time for them to get back into the black.

Share of the week was my beloved OPTI:Optibiotix. They climbed by 14p which is a whopping 22%. The current bid price of 43p is now above the price I paid for £2,000 worth of shares a few weeks ago, so at least those are in profit. I can't believe these are still 33% down though. There were 2 new deals announced this week, and one of them is 10 times the size of the recent Holland and Barrett deal. That caused a 41% rise on the day, but 41% of the share price on that day wasn't a 41% recovery based on my purchase price, so there's still a long way to go.




Boing! Still way below the injection amount though.




Almost back on the trend line, but £50K in the red.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £55.48
+£0
Portfolio cost £59,787.80
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £31,501.31 (-47.3%) +£8,618.71
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£23.88 (-0.5%) +£0.71
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £380.71 (7.6%) -£1.58
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 11.6%
-0.1%
Compound performance 54%
+0%

Absolutely fantastic surge in value. Not much else to report.




Similar to the combined chart.




Also similar to the combined chart, but a slightly steeper decline

The SIPP looks like this after week 227



Weekly Change
Cash £48.51
+£0
Portfolio cost £49,176.17
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£28,477.67 (-42.1%) +£6,645.67
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£12.68 (-0.3%) +£0.71
Total Dividends £1,899.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,549.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £266.29 (6.6%) -£1.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 10.0%
-0.1%
Compound performance 44%
+0%

A very similar story to the ISA, with a huge rise and not much else happening.




A bit closer to the injection line than the ISA, but desperately depressing that we're still below it.




Same story as the ISA.

The trading account looks like this after week 193



Weekly Change
Cash £48.24
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £936.01 (-59.7%) -£6.96
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £1.55 (0.8%) -£0.04
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.37 (-0.2%) +£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection -0.2%
+0%
Compound performance -1%
+0%

This account likes to buck the trend. Although there was a decent rise in TRMR:Tremor, all the others dropped and wiped out the gains. The drop was limited though.




The recovery is stalled.




I think this is the least steep trendline of any of the accounts.

The fantasy magic formula account is still 30% down, so that's 1% worse off than last week.

Legal & General are taking an age to transfer my pension. I'm not complaining, as the value has gone up £200 since I put in the transfer request. The balance is still showing £2,585 so they haven't sold the funds yet, and it takes about 3 days to hit my account after that. At this rate I'll be lucky to have anything next week.

Nothing has changed for my desire to top up CAML:Central Asia Metals. In fact although the recent results were great, the postponement of the dividend caused a big drop. That's good if I can just get the funds before they creep up again.

I'm less likely to invest the rest in OPTI:Optibiotix now. 45p is still a bargain, but it's more than I paid a few weeks ago and means my average price won't come down so much. I'm leaning back towards FXPO:Ferrexpo who gave great results but got hammered for postponing their dividend.

I've updated the FXPO:Ferrexpo figures in my ranking spreadsheet after their annual results, except for the divi which is hopefully just a postponement, and although the ranking score is higher, they are still top of the league by miles. The changes in P/E ratio have however changed the share that comes 2nd, with PLUS:Plus500 slipping to 5th. The new second place is held by POLR:Polar Capital Holdings. However, with no divi arriving in may for CAML:Central Asia Metals I doubt I'll be in a position to buy anything in May, so it will be at least a 3 month wait before I can get another injection into my SIPP.

That's it for a great week. I need 2 more of these and we'll be back to where we were before the crash. I don't know how likely that is given the current situation. The main priority for most companies appears to be avoiding going bust, but if OPTI:Optibiotix can sort out the Sweetbiotix deal, then they alone could propel me towards profit. There's certainly a lot of cash waiting for something that's both Brexit-proof and Coronavirus-proof, and OPTI:Optibiotix may turn out to be a good candidate.

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