Saturday, 18 April 2020

Week 245 Review - Trading account moves into realised profit

It's been a fairly flat week with a big scare at the end that turned out to be OK as OPTI:Optibiotix announced a placing at 20% discount to share price. Amazingly they ended the day blue, and as a result ended up 1p on the week. The combined portfolios climbed by £1,732 and the deficit between cost and value has reduced to £39,274, with total portfolio value of £72,267.

There were very few big movers this week, and for the second week running there were no big drops.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics climbed 5% in my ISA and 7% in my SIPP, but is still shockingly under-valued and I'm well underwater.

MMX:Minds + Machines rarely moves, but sneaked up 6% this week. It's possible dividend-hunters will be showing an interest as there seems no reason why the company should back-track on their plan to issue a maiden dividend given they should be unaffected by Covid-19.

N4P:N4 Pharma is getting on the Covid-19 bubble bandwagon and climbed 9%. I'm convinced this is all bullshit so am contemplating getting out at a big loss while I can still salvage something.

JLP:Jubilee Metals continues to climb, especially on news that the mining lockdown is being relaxed in South Africa. My main holding increased by 11% and my new trading holding climbed 5% in 2 days to go into profit. Surely I haven't actually timed a trading purchase right for once?

Share of the Week is TEK:Tekcapital. I bought them in August 2018 as a short term holding. I ended up holding them for 20 months, but they climbed 26% this week and I sold them for £120 profit. Will this be the turning point for my so-far cursed trading account?





Not quite back past the injection line, but getting close.




The right side of the trend line but a long way off reversing it.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this


Weekly Change
Cash £11.73
+£0
Portfolio cost £59,827.79
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £37,945.41 (-36.6%) +£1,204.21
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£23.03 (-0.5%) +£0.64
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £377.54 (7.6%) -£1.55
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 11.5%
-0.1%
Compound performance 54%
+0%

Normally this would be a very good week, but there's quite a bit of catching up to do. I think I need to get a few more dividend paying shares in this portfolio, and I desperately need a big sale to boost my performance figures.




I need to recover another £10K before I'm back at the pre-Covid-19 level.




Some big £10K swings up and down over relatively short periods. I really hope we're not due another swing down!

The SIPP looks like this after week 229



Weekly Change
Cash £36.44
+£0
Portfolio cost £49,176.17
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£32,748.94 (-33.4%) +£490.89
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£13.96 (-0.3%) +£0.70
Total Dividends £1,899.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,549.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £263.74 (6.4%) -£1.15
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 9.9%
-0.1%
Compound performance 44%
+0%

A much smaller rise in this account as many of the shares dropped a little in price. The average monthly performance based on injection value finally falls below 10%, and the figure I should be comparing to my 10% target is only 6.4%, but there's still no sign of how I can improve matters, and if I do sell N4P:N4Pharma for a big loss, this figure will be much worse. If it goes up enough to salvage £500 I may take the hit, and use the proceeds to add to my transfer (if it ever arrives) so I can get CAML:Central Asia Metals to 5,000 shares.




Above the injection line but perilously close.




Not far enough above the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 195



Weekly Change
Cash £0.09
-£48.42
Portfolio cost £2,490.21
+£168.92
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,525.31 (-38.7%) +£37.21
Potential profits £31.06
+£31.06
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £120.77
+£120.77
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £14.89 (7.8%) +£13.38
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales £56.48
+£120.77
Average monthly cash profit £2.32 (1.1%) +£2.69
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 1.2%
+1%
Compound performance 5%
+6%

That looks a whole lot better. The sale of TEK:Tekcapital made £120 (24.5%) profit which lifted my Year 4 performance to £14 a month and brought my long term performance into profit, albeit an average of £2 a month. That's a pretty poor return for 4 years, but it's better than the loss I've been reporting for a long time.

Cash dropped by £48 as I ploughed all the profits and cash back into my next purchase, which was 22,635 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 2.81p costing £647.99. I'm convinced these are heading to 4p over the next few weeks which would give me £257 (40%) profit. This would go straight into my bank account so I keep to my £2,500 limit for this account.

I have to keep reminding myself this account is meant to be for short term trades, and I have to think differently about the shares I buy. In the past I've bought long term investment shares the same as with my other accounts, and it hasn't been working well at all.

I'm happy to say that JLP:Jubilee Metals has already gone up from 2.81 offer price to 3p bid price, so I'm £31 (5%) up.




The red cost line is back where it should be around £2,500, the injection line remains the same as I re-invested the profits to get the cost line up, and the green line is well above the pre-Covid-19 level.




This chart shows a truer picture of this week's rise, as the profits were re-invested and it's a miracle the line turned upwards. I think this account is the one closest to reversing the trend line, especially if JLP:Jubilee Metals behaves.

The magic formula portfolio is 22.35% down, an improvement of 7.65% on 2 weeks ago. The only companies in the black since I (virtually) bought them are PLUS:Plus 500 which is up 35% and IGG:IG Group Holdings which is up 5.16%. Worst performer is CARD:Card Factory, down 52%. Also down by more than 50% are ITV:ITV and VTY:Vistry Group.

Legal and General still haven't sold my funds in order to free up the £2,000 I requested transferred to my SIPP. That's a month after the transfer request. I gave them the benefit of the doubt last week, but a month is just ridiculous. I'm missing out on some serious stock recovery profits while they mess me around. I could still achieve my ambitions of getting CAML:Central Asia Metals to 5,000 shares if they hurry. The only potential benefit of the delay is that it gives me time for N4P:N4 Pharma to ride the Covid-19 bubble for a bit longer before I bail out. It would be nice to add the proceeds of that to the transfer money, and the £500 I get from the tax man in May.

I guess I should say something about the OPTI:Optibiotix placing. I've calmed down after my initial anger, as I realised it was fueled by jealousy that they had bought the placing shares cheaper then the ones I bought a few weeks ago, and if I had been allowed to get involved I could have saved some money, but only just over 200 shares worth. I still have to pinch myself when I realise I own almost 110,000 shares.

There's no doubt that the cash is being used to generate a hell of a lot of revenue, so the placing was definitely the right thing to do. After an initial shock where the share price dived, it ended the day in the blue and so the week ended 1p up. I think when potential investors realise that putting this money into producing stock now means there are some very big deals about to be announced, they'll come piling in.

When the OPTI:Optibiotix share price moves, it really does move fast. All it takes next week is one of these deals to be announced and I could be back in the black. I only need 15p now, which would get my portfolio value right back where it was before everything started falling apart.

There's one thing about the OPTI:Optibiotix placing I don't understand. As well as raising £1m placing the shares, they also sold a few percent of their SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics holding at a ridiculously low price. I'm sure they had their reasons, but I don't understand why they needed to do that while also doing the placing. I'm sure all will become clear in due course.

I look at the current price of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and it does make me think I need to buy some more. Maybe if JLP:Jubilee Metals puts on a spurt next week I'll be able to sell up my trading shares and put them into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics for a while...

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