Friday, 10 April 2020

Week 244 Review - The recovery continues

Another good week as the recovery continues at an extreme pace. So far it's as fast as the drop, but I have a feeling it will slow down or even take a step backwards soon. The combined portfolios climbed by £8,378 this week, taking the deficit between cost and value down to £41,006, and increasing the total value to £70,414.

There were no significant losers this week, which is a very rare thing to report.

There are no particular reasons form most of the gains, apart from money returning to the market as traders hoover up bargains.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics climbed 5% in my ISA and 7% in my SIPP but is still 65% and 53% down.

CAML:Central Asia Metals released a production update which reversed earlier declines and caused a 6% rise to make these only 26% down, but given these were my only profitable share it shows how far everything has fallen.

JLP:Jubilee Metals climbed 6% but the increase is still agonisingly slow given how close to being profitable they were. They are still 44% down so still a long wait.

IKA:Ilika almost got into profit before the crash. This week's 7% climb takes them to 18% down, so some hope is re-kindled.

WRES:W Resources also gained 7% but at 79% down and dishing out shares relentlessly, I will be amazed if these ever get into the black.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 6p which is 10% and were responsible for £6,600 of this week's rise. That goes to show what a good week it's been, that the other shares managed to put on £1,400. These are 23% down but deals are coming in relentlessly, there's been an updated broker note with a target price of 93p, and surely the Sweetbiotix announcement will come through soon.

IQE:IQE has seen nearly all the shorts closed as the hedge funds take advantage of the crash to buy back without causing a massive spike. They climbed 11% in my SIPP, 13% in the trading account, and 18% in my ISA. I think when things calm down there's a resonable chance these will work their way back to 100p which I consider fair value. Unfortunately my SIPP holding was bought at 131p so I'd have to stomach a £600 loss if I wanted to offload them at 100p to put into my magic formula shares, which is my objective for all the SIPP except OPTI:Optibiotix, which is my hold forever share for the hoped-for epic dividend.

TLOU:Tlou Energy would normally have made Share of the Week with a 23% rise, but not this week. News of last week's Power Purchase Agreement is trickling through so I'm hoping for a steady climb back to my purchase price over the next few months. I think £2,700 was a bit too much to invest in a high risk venture like this, so although I'd like to keep some for the long term, I'd quite like to reduce my holding from 31,000 shares to around 15,000.

Share of the Week is TEK:Tekcapital which has had positive updates from most of it's holding companies over the last few weeks. One is part of the "Covid-19 bubble" which probably sparked the amazing 61% climb this week. It actually went into profit for a while, but dropped to 1% down by the end of the day. It's still my best performing share and gives me the rare opportunity to contemplate selling something in my trading account. I need £65 profit to break even over the 194 weeks, but I think ideally I should be aiming for £120 profit. That would mean a share price of 17.5p to give me 25% profit. That seems a reasonable ambition for a trading share.




Almost as steep a climb as last week, and almost past the first milestone of breaking through the orange injection line.




Back on the right side of the trend line after being below it for just 4 weeks.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £11.73
-£43.75
Portfolio cost £59,827.79
+£40.00
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £36,741.20 (-38.6%) +£5,199.90
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£23.67 (-0.5%) +£0.21
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £379.09 (7.6%) -£1.62
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 11.6%
+0%
Compound performance 54%
+0%

Cash dropped due to the £40 I spent on 100 IKA:Ilika shares on open offer at 40p with no commission, plus the monthly £3.75 ISA charge. Great rise of over £5,000 and virtually no change in performance as usual. It seems a long, long time since I sold anything.




Not yet past the injection line. I think it will take a few more weeks, but hopeful this big dip is nearly behind us. My fear is that huge volatility is of great benefit to traders and hedge funds, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they don't engineer wild swings to maximise their profits.




The right side of the trend line and about a third of losses got back.

Here's the SIPP after week 228



Weekly Change
Cash £36.44
-£12.07
Portfolio cost £49,176.17
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£32,258.05 (-34.4%) +£3,780.38
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£14.66 (-0.4%) -£1.98
Total Dividends £1,899.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,549.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £264.89 (6.5%) -£1.40
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 10.0%
-0.1%
Compound performance 44%
+0%

The monthly charge means my year 5 average is just made up of charges as I haven't sold anything or had any dividends, and my usual dividends have been postponed, so almost halfway through the year and it's looking grim. With long term average performance down to 6.5% of portfolio cost, and performance based on injection value about to drop below 10%, my performance needs a boost. The fact the portfolio is also 34% down is pretty bad.




Just above the injection line. Thank goodness for that.




Just above the trend line too.

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 194



Weekly Change
Cash £48.24
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,319.18 (-43.2%) +£383.17
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £1.51 (0.8%) -£0.04
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.37 (-0.2%) +£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection -0.2%
+0%
Compound performance -1%
+0%

I think this could count as the best week ever for my trading account. Everything was up except TRMR:Tremor, and that was pretty much static. TEK:Tekcaptial was the big winner, and as mentioned in the Share of the Week write-up, is almost in profit and almost in a position to be sold.




Right back to where we were before the crash. If I do get to sell TEK:Tekcapital then I have a bit of a dilemma what to do with the cash. My aim is to maintain the cost line at £2,500, but when I bought TALY:Tally (or LION:Liongold as it was then), I only had £345 so the cost line is below £2,500. My rule is that I spend £500 and return the profit to my bank account, thus the injection line drops until eventually it's below £0 and then I switch it to a banked profit line.Clearly I'm a million miles away from being able to do any of that!

It means that if I do manage to make £120 profit on TEK:Tekcapital, when I buy my next shares, I would use the full £620 plus the £48 cash in the account in order to get the red line back at £2,500. When I sell those shares I'll go back to the £500 limit. I just hope next time I can do a bit better than I have so far with this account. The secret is to be in less of a hurry to buy, and don't buy anything with such a gigantic spread.




Way above the trend line, but miles below £0.

The only source of frustration this week is the behaviour of Legal & General with my SIPP transfer. They have been sitting on the request for 3 weeks now, and I've lost my chance to buy at the bottom of the crash. I've been checking my account every day and they still haven't even sold the fund to pay for the transfer, so by the time they do it I suspect there would have been a complete recovery and I'll have missed my chance. I'm now too late to get my CAML:Central Asia Metals holding up to 5,000 shares as that has recovered a lot of ground. If I still go ahead with that plan, I can't afford to make up the difference to buy £1,000 of FXPO:Ferrexpo, so I'll either have to sit on cash until I get £1,000 or buy less. It's really very annoying.

I guess I shouldn't be too harsh. It might be that half their team has come down with Covid-19 and they are desperately under-staffed. If that's the case then I have no right to bleat about the time it's taking. However, my past history of disappointment with Legal & General makes me a tad cynical about their performance. I'll never be able to forgive them for forcing my to sell my gold fund and invest it in a general fund just before the gold price exploded. That's a massive betrayal and I won't ever forget it or trust them with my money again. The only reason I keep the pension with them is it's the only way to get my employer contributions added. I'll transfer as much as I can as fast as I can into my SIPP.

Having said that, if the cash comes through next week then I'll have some thinking to do about how to spend it.

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