Saturday, 14 August 2021

Week 314 Review - Dreadful week losing much of last week's recovery

A rubbish week with nearly everything dropping and the few that rose were tiny increases in value. Roll on September! The deficit between cost and value widened by £4,353 and only £3,200 of that was down to OPTI:Optibiotix. That set the deficit at £31,430 and reduced total portfolio value to £116,044.

Worst performer was JLP:Jubilee Metals which inexplicably fell 44% of my original purchase price wiping out £950 of potential profits. They are still 250% up though, and still my only profitable ISA share.

FXPO:Ferrexpo went ex-dividend, but continued to drop even after that to lose 7% this week and go 11% down altogether. My new crop of magic formula shares are definitely struggling compared to the last lot, and FXPO was one of the original lot that I bought back into after banking 95% profit.

Share of the week only climbed 3% which shows what a bad week it was. TLOU:Tlou Energy are very close to being in profit in my SIPP holding, only £1 (0%) down. The ISA holding has a lot further to go, as that's 57% down. I still keep the faith with these and may get some more.




The drop doesn't look as bad on this chart compared to the fluctuations over the last 6 months.




Not as low as a few weeks ago, but failing to get above the trend line.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 2 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £31.58

+£0
Portfolio cost £68,170.47
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £55,082.39 (-19.2%) -£2,533.50
Potential profits £5,424.08
-£950.00
Yr 7 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit £0 (0%) +£0
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,123.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £347.57 (9.5%) -£1.11
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+0%

Not much happening other than a huge drop in potential profits thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals and the bulk of the other losses were from OPTI:Optibiotix falling 2p.




Back to being halfway between cost and injection lines




So close to crossing the trend line but thwarted.

The SIPP looks like this after week 298 overall and week 38 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £296.52
-£8.09
Portfolio cost £76,342.81
+£391.10
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£59,069.72 (-22.6%) -£1,810.23
Potential profits £387.58
-£186.81
Yr 6 Dividends £902.77
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £8,345.60
+£263.01
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,037.44 (27.1%) +£2.77
Total Dividends £2,969.85
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £23,805.04
+£263.01
Average monthly cash profit £378.12 (9.9%) +£2.56
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+1%

I updated my magic formula spreadsheet last week and a new stock shot to number 4 in the rankings. SMS:Smart Metering Systems has a P/E ratio of just 5.24 ranking it 46th, pays a 3% dividend ranking it 110th, has a return on capital employed of 46.5% ranking it 10th, and has a debt to profit ratio of just 0.29% ranking it 14th. With figures that outstanding I had to add it to my portfolio, as it's better than most of my existing magic formula shares.

I sold 400 of my CAML:Central Asia Metals shares for £263.01 (35.2%) profit. That liberated almost £1,000 and left me with 600 CAML shares. As these cost me £1,147 it brings them in line with my other magic formula shares and helps spread the risk of having too much in one miner, something I'm keen to pursue after the dam leak CAML had last year, which showed even the best mining companies can suffer a disaster.

I bought 107 SMS:Smart Metering Systems shares at 927.485p costing £1,004.36. With spread and commission they are down 3%. They usually pay a dividend in October, so not long to wait for that.

I also set up a monthly savings plan for £120 per month, and that kicked in for the first time this week. I bought 5.16 units of the Blackrock Word Gold fund for 2,325.581p. That's down 1% by the end of the week. I'll keep adding to this every month as my gold hedge and slowly phase out my investments in higher risk single mining companies.

Potential profits didn't drop as far as the money I banked, as ASHM:Ashmore Group climbed 1% and IGG:IG Group climbed 2% to help make up some of the deficit. Long term performance improved by £2 a month but I can't quite do enough to get it back to 10%.




Not too much of a dip.




That looks a bit worse. How I dream of being back above the tend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 264 overall and week 4 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,305.29 (-45.0%) -£10.07
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Profit £0.00
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £0.00 (0%) +£0
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £16.38 (8.3%) -£0.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)


Not much change here, with value slipping yet again, but by just £10.




The value line is almost touching the injection line. In just over 5 years I've managed to end up with exactly the same amount I put in. What a roaring success!




Down to a new 12-month low. With 2/5 of the portfolio invested in DDDD:4D Pharma I desperately need some good news to turn things around. It also seems like forever ago that I decided to bank some OPTI:Optibiotix profit at 84p and move the proceeds into my trading account to double the pot. The chances of OPTI getting anywhere near 84p in the near future seem pretty slim so that ain't going to happen. I can't believe I was suckered in to believing DDDD would re-rate when they listed on Nasdaq. How wrong was that - down 40% since then!

Feeling somewhat deflated this week as I really thought things had turned around and would start going in the right direction after last week's rise, with OPTI:Optibiotix at least re-rating in the mid 50's, but nope, here we are again back in the 40's. Six years is a long time to be invested in a company and still be 20% down. My conviction hasn't wavered that this is going to be a highly profitable company, and I keep telling myself that if the price hadn't stayed this low I wouldn't have accumulated so many shares. However, now I've bought as many as I dare, so it would be wonderful to see some return.

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