Sunday, 23 October 2022

Week 376 Review - Yet another new low as Probiotix tanks

This was nearly a positive week, with most shares flat and OPTI:Optibiotix gaining 0.5p, but a 3p drop in PBX:Probiotix following one large sale completely destroyed the week and sent the portfolio to a new record low. The deficit between cost and value widened by £2,185 to £110,803 and portfolio value dropped to £69,519. I'm really fed up.

The 3p drop in PBX:Probiotix Health wiped out 15% of one of my biggest holdings and took it from 5% in profit to 10% loss. I know these will tank in January when the embargo is lifted and people can sell them. I bought some in anticipation of good news that would lift the price before Christmas so I could sell them for a profit before January then buy a load at bargain price with the proceeds when they tank. There has been no news and there is no sign that there will be, so my plan is falling apart.

NUM:Numis Corp dropped 9% after a 12% drop last week, so clearly my new method for choosing magic formula shares is even worse than the last one. I'm beginning to think I have a curse!

Share of the Week is CEY:Centamin which climbed 5% after really good results. I can't believe these are still trading so low when they have an utterly gigantic pile of cash and no debt. I really hope they dish out a massive special dividend as my holding is still 24% down, although with 8% dividends I'd only lose 16% if I sold them now.




Very bad.




Last week the trend line crossed below the value line. Clearly the value line was uncomfortable with this situation and dropped back to meet the trend line.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 12 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash £56.42

+£0
Portfolio cost £82,003.25
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £28,803.08 (-64.9%) -£972.16
Potential profits £0
-£471.51
Yr 8 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 8 Interest £0.02
+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales -£995.63
+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit -£362.23 (-9.8%) +£32.93
Total Dividends £11,768.92
+£0
Total Interest £0.02
+£0
Total Profit from sales £27,098.43
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £444.09
(12.0%) -£1.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 87% +0%

All potential profits wiped out with the drop in PBX:Probiotix, and almost £1,000 wiped off the portfolio value. All bad.




Record low




Back on the downward trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 360 overall and week 48 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £93.55
+£36.24
Portfolio cost £96,320.45
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£39,895.25 (-58.6%) -£1,225.98
Potential profits £65.62
-£502.38
Yr 7 Dividends £10,808.77
+£36.24
Yr 7 Interest £0.01
+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales -£3,290.88
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit £663.98 (14.0%) -£10.79
Total Dividends £14,013.16
+£36.24
Total Interest £0.21
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,433.75
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £402.78 (8.5%) -£0.69
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 59% +0%

I got a £36 dividend from IGG:IG Group which also increased cash, portfolio value dropped by over £1,000 and all PBX:Probiotix potential profits were wiped out, leaving just PLUS:Plus500 in profit.




Looks like it's about equal worst in last 12 months, but cost has gone up by over £10k since we were last at this level




As with the other accounts, we're firmly back on the trend line

The trading account looks like this after week 326 overall and week 14 of year 7.




Weekly Change
Cash £0.10
+£0
Portfolio cost £1,849.21
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £671.20 (-63.7%) +£12.35
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 7 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 7 Interests £0.01
+£0
Year 7 Profit -£71.73
+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit -£22.20 (-14.4%) +£1.71
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Interest £0.01
+£0
Profit from sales £154.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £2.86 (1.9%) -£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix went up by 0.5p which gave a £12 increase in value. Something to celebrate this week!




Still in desperate trouble




It's so nice to see a positive trend line and to still be above it.

Let's see how much lower the portfolio can go next week!

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