Friday, 22 December 2023

Week 437 Review - Small drop for Optibiotix but little change elsewhere

Not a bad close into Christmas, but a 0.5p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix means the deficit between cost and value widened by £739 to £95,393 and total portfolio value is £109,890.

Only one share fell by 5% or more, with TRX:Tissue Regenix dropping 5% after having spent months not moving at all. I'm hoping it's a tree shake after a long period of consolidation, but we'll see.

BLU:Blue Star Capital went up 13%, SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy 22% and IES:Invinity Energy 19%, but it's a fractional amount of what I paid for them so not winning any prizes. With companies like these you don't know if it's some genuine interest, or just closing a few shorts for some Christmas cash.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been sneaking higher each week, and this week they went up 7%. There's a long, long way to go, but I remain hopeful these will get back to their previous rate once the Ukraine war is over.

Share of the Week goes to CAPD:Capital which went up 8%. I quite like these and may buy some more if I get some SIPP funds. If bonds behave then I may have enough to transfer £2k at the end of next month. I've upped my work pension contributions from next April as I'm not quite paying enough to transfer every 4 months, and an extra 1% will fix that and guarantee being able to transfer more regularly.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 21 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash£140.10+£0
Portfolio cost£99,175.93+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£50,720.72(-48.9%)-£461.65
Potential profits£1,969.55-£39.64
Yr 9 Dividends£191.08+£0
Yr 9 Interest£2.46+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£31.44+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£39.27(0.7%)-£1.97
Total Dividends£12,102.51+£0
Total Interest£4.39+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,329.97+£0
Average monthly cash profit£287.80(4.9%)-£0.66
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

Very little happened. OPTI:Optibiotix was the main reason for the fall in value but it would have been twice that if others hadn't done well. Potential profits hardly dropped because GAW:Games Workshop and CAML:Central Asia Metals increased almost as much as my profitable OPTI shares dropped.


Feels stuck


Starting to move away from the trend line which is a worry

The SIPP looks like this after week 421 overall and week 5 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£603.00
-£39.80
Portfolio cost£103,288.60
+£562.30
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£57,091.00(-44.7%)-£290.85
Potential profits£1,729.80
+£116.41
Yr 9 Dividends£70.36
+£0
Yr 9 Interest£0
+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£2,662.56
+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£2,352.80(41.0%)-£588.21
Total Dividends£14,705.24
+£0
Total Interest£5.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales£13,498.46
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£278.26(4.9%)-£0.66
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance39%-1%

A lot more happened here than the ISA. I decided I wanted to buy some more PBX:Probiotix so added £460 to my AJ Bell SIPP to boost the cash. However when I tried to buy PBX it wouldn't give me an online quote or let me leave a limit sale. That's better than Hargreaves Lansdown who won't even let me trade them at all online.

I gave up and decided I should increase my PAF:Pan African Resources holding instead, so bought 2,929 shares at 16.6433p costing £499.87 to take my holding in that account up to around £1,000.

Later the same day I noticed a tax rebate had arrived, so just messing around I tried PBX:Probiotix again because the amount was so small. This time it did give me a quote, and although I would normally never do a transaction where commission is 16% of the cost, I was determined to buy some and the tax rebate seemed like free money anyway. I bought 656 shares at 8p costing £62.43. It increases my holding in my AJ Bell SIPP to 6,068 bought for an average of 7.75p. They'd almost be in profit if the declared spread wasn't so stupid at 25%.

Aside from all that the losses were really small at £290 because most things had a good week, and potential profits actually increased by £116 after rises in AJB:AJ Bell, GAW:Games Workshop, III:3i Group, IPX:Impax Asset Management and PLUS:Plus500. It's nice to see so much green in an account!


The gap's certainly not getting much wider, but the injection line remains stubbornly far above.


The trend line is getting away from us.

The trading account looks like this after week 387 overall and week 23 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£141.20
+£0
Portfolio cost£1,935.11
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,194.75(-38.3%)+£12.97
Potential profits£0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends£8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest£0
+£0
Year 8 Profit£283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£55.12(+34.2%)-£2.50
Dividends£68.66
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£6.47(-4.0%)+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

BARC:Barclays went up 4% this week but SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dropped 3%, but the result was an increase in value of £12. BARC is now only 9% down and may actually get to a position where I can sell in the New Year.


Not going downwards any more.


Just parallel with the trend line isn't good enough, we need to be crossing it.

OPTI:Optibiotix assured us that contracts were just waiting for people to get back from summer holidays before they could be signed. That was 4 months a go and nothing has happened. We were told an update was coming before Christmas and that hasn't happened either.

I feel vindicated that I've started selling off some of my more cheaply bought shares. If we do get blockbuster news then I still have enough of a holding to retire early, but the longer that news takes to arrive the more I'll sell and invest in companies that are actually delivering something.

It's very frustrating to feel that way after over 8 years as an investor, but I have to accept that my exposure to risk is utterly massive while I have such a big holding. Certainly in my SIPP where I'm targeting dividend-paying shares, I need to reduce my exposure to companies that promise the world but can't sell enough to make a profit.

I can liberate £1,925 from my SIPP and make £607 profit at this deflated price. It means I'll be relying on the share price getting much higher before I break even on the rest, but I'm seeing great results with the magic formula shares I bought recently using my new approach, so should be pushing more into the likes of IGG:IG Group and get back into PAGE:Page Group in my SIPP. That may very well happen shortly after Christmas.

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