Sunday 11 August 2024

Week 469 Review - Absolute disaster of a week, with virtually everything crashing and last week's gains wiped out.

Absolute disaster of a week, with nearly all last week's gains wiped out, and a load of new purchases tanking. The deficit between cost and value widened by £12,902 to £99,081 and the deficit between injection amount and value increased to £31,707, Portfolio value dropped to £123,470.

PBX:Probiotix Health was the worst performer, dropping 20% to go 90% down and enter the category  of unmentionable junk shares. Very sad to see the complete destruction of shareholder value since this company floated, with no news of any positive progress whatsoever. They're in trouble when they need to raise cash as we'll be diluted to hell at this share price.

FXPO:Ferrexpo looked like a recovery was underway, but it wasn't, and the price dropped 18% this week, to also put this one back in the 90% junk category.

IES:Invinity Energy only recently heaved themselves out of being a junk share, but dropping 16% this week they are now 88% down and only 2% off re-joining that category.

OPTI:Optibiotix crashed 4.5p which is 15% and did a significant chunk of the damage this week. I should have known it would happen if there was no concrete news to back up the tip sheets.

AFC:AFC Energy dropped another 8% to put all my holdings in the red.

CAPD:Capital dropped 7% after I recently bought a load more. They have actually slid way down my magic formula list now, so I regret buying them as I have 2 lots I won't be able to get rid of without taking a loss.

JLP:Jubilee Metals fell 7% on there still being no news of progress at Roan. So glad I bought a load more just before the drop. This is by far my biggest holding after OPTI:Optibiotix, and it's doing almost as bad.

TRX:Tissue Regenix have been doing really well lately, but most of that has been undone with a 7% drop this week sending them 55% down.

AAL:Anglo American Mining looked like a cunning buy as they were about to sell off a load of assets so they could be bought out. I figured lots of returns to shareholders would materialise, but instead they dropped another 6% and are now losing 11% on my recent purchase price.

CWR:Ceres Power were briefly in the black, but fell another 6% this week to go 7% down.

PAGE:Pagegroup had very uninspiring results and dropped 6% to go 20% down. They are however still in my top 50 magic formula shares, so I'm going to keep them. My new rule is I only buy them if they are in the top 30, but I hold them while they're in the top 50.

IHP:Integrafin has not been a great magic formula investment, dropping 5% this week to go 4% down.

Only one share rose by 5% or more this week, and it's SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. They went up 10% but are still a long way down in all my holdings.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 1 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£89.95+£3.36
Portfolio cost£106,138.27+£1,141.55
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£54,561.73(-48.6%)-£6,932.30
Potential profits£1,863.05-£1,791.50
Yr 10 Dividends£0+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.06+£0.06
Yr 10 Profit from sales£149.75+£149.74
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£694.16(10.1%)+£694.16
Total Dividends£12,222.49+£0
Total Interest£6.86+£0.06
Total Profit from sales£18,027.59+£149.74
Average monthly cash profit£275.24(4.3%)+£0.80
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance39%+0%

Quite a lot happened this week. I decided I didn't want OPTI:Optibiotix in both my HL ISA and my AJ Bell ISA, so I sold my AJ Bell holding of 4,719 shares at 24.68p, making £149.74 (14.7%) profit. That's because I was convinced JLP:Jubilee Metals were about to re-rate following director buys and with Roan news imminent. I bought 18,648 shares at 6.148p costing £1,151.48.

I also needed to cash in some premium bonds to pay for my holiday, but I cashed in an extra £1,000 which I added to my ISA and bought 16,256 JLP shares also at 6.148p costing £1,004.97.

The result was my portfolio cost going up £1,141. Potential profits collapsed by £1,791 thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and JLP:Jubilee Metals.

The £149 profit in week 1 means my projected year 10 profits are way more than they will be, but nice to get the year off to a positive start. It made barely a scratch on long term performance.


Drat and double drat!


Heading back down to the trend line, but still above it.

The SIPP looks like this after week 453 overall and week 37 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£560.81
+£175.60
Portfolio cost£113,625.55
+£88.76
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£66,846.88(-41.2%)-£5,928.11
Potential profits£3,584.43
-£112.15
Yr 9 Dividends£924.61
+£0
Yr 9 Interest£4.36
+£0.32
Yr 9 Profit from sales£4,897.75
+£14.04
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£664.93(10.5%)-£16.75
Total Dividends£15,559.49
+£0
Total Interest£10.29
+£0.32
Total Profit from sales£15,733.65
+£14.04
Average monthly cash profit£286.95(4.5%)-£0.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

After re-calculating my magic formula rankings, two companies that had plummeted down the listing were EDV:Endeavour Mining and UKW:Greencoat UK Wind, so they are now in the sell zone, and both were in the green so I made a move to exchange them for companies higher up the ranking.

I sold my 702 shares in UKW:Greencoat UK Wind for 143.99p making just £8.79 (1.3%) profit, and have had no dividends. These are ones I've been buying with my monthly savings, which turns out was a mistake. I still have some more in my HL SIPP, but they are in the red. I used the proceeds to buy 64 shares in SCT:Softcat at 1620.5p costing £1,047.31. They are 12th in my magic formula rankings.

I sold my 42 shares in EDV:Endeavour Mining for 1741.2845p, making just £5.25 (1.2%) profit, again with no dividends. I switched my monthly savings before I got these to £1,000 so I used the proceeds to top up my holding in CAML:Central Asia Metals, buying 385 shares at 195.9888p, costing £759.56.

This meant the portfolio cost increased by just £88. Potential profits only dropped £112 as the profitable shares didn't have as bad a week as the loss-making ones. The profits were so small that both year 9 and long-term performance still dropped.


I came so close to the injection line, but it wan't to be.


Not nice. Just as I was feeling optimistic, a harsh dose of reality.

The trading account looks like this after week 419 overall and week 3 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£63.39
+£0
Portfolio cost£2,073.87
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,347.81(-35.0%)-£41.95
Potential profits£0    
-£30.70
Year 9 Dividends£0
+£0
Year 9 Interest£0
+£0
Year 9 Profit£0
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£0(+0%)+£0
Dividends£85.46
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£602.54
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£5.35(-3.1%)+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

The big drop in JLP:Jubilee Metals wiped out all potential profits and were too much for the rise on SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to counter, so value dropped by £41. The good news is that SBTX is only 8% down now, so one bit of news could allow me to sell them.


Still looking grim


No longer touching the trend line, but beneath it.

I'm a week late writing this up again. I suspect it will happen every time there's a miserable week like this one.

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