Wednesday 10 May 2017

Piled in to Optibiotix while it's cheap

I was enraged last night as I saw the OPTI:Optibiotix closing share price. On the day of a massive announcement that Nutrilinea will distribute LPLDL the new cardiovascular & cholesterol strain, the price plummeted!

I was dumbfounded - how can this constant barrage of good news result in the price going down relentlessly?

I began to smell a rat. A combination of factors. Over the last 3 weeks 470,000 shares have been "sold" in blocks of 10,000, and each time it seems to be dragging down the share price. Why would someone offloading choose to do that? Surely they would let the price rise, sell a batch and give it a chance to go up again before selling the next lot. To my (untrained) eyes this looks more like a concerted attack on the share.

OPTI:Optibiotix has 78.54 million shares in circulation. That's not a lot really. It's also relatively lightly traded, so a constant trickle of sizable blocks of shares coming onto the market will have an impact.

It's not a dead cert though - even taking out all the 10,000 blocks, there have been more sells than buys over the last three weeks, or at least trades reported as sells rather than buys, which are often incorrect.

As an aside, that's bloody ridiculous. Why are sites reporting buys and sells not able to state with certainty if it's a buy or sell? There's no reason to hide the reality, unless you want to manipulate people's perception of what's going on? The greatest gift that could be given to private investors would be a reform of this arcane practice and some real data to base our investment decisions on. It's madness that we're risking thousands of pounds on decisions informed by guesswork of what might have been bought or sold in a day. There you go ShareProphets - if you want to pick a fight with the establishment in order to help private investors, that's one that would be truly revolutionary!

Meanwhile, back on topic, and my supposition that there's share price manipulation going on here. I love reading bulletin boards. They are fun, and as long as you're careful with what you believe, they are informative too. The OPTI:Optibiotix bulletin board has some superb informed posters.

A while back on the GVC:GVC Holdings bulletin board, a load of trolls appeared claiming that GVC were about to be prosecuted. There was a constant barrage of negativity furiously denied by the regular posters. Over a four month period the share price dropped from around 750p to 600p. I wasn't overly concerned, having bought all mine at 422p, but it did hammer my paper profits. There was no reason for the decline, and exasperation was rife on the bulletin board from long term holders. Throughout this the trolls continued their drip drip drip of negativity.

Then it stopped. The trolls went away, and the share price has gone from 600p to 766p in 3.5 months.

So what was that all about?

If that wasn't a concerted shorting attack I don't know what it was.

Trolls have now invaded the OPTI:Optibiotix bulletin board. Exactly the same symptoms - a constant drip drip drip of negativity fueled by wild speculation and untruths.

Things like "placing imminent" when there's funding for 3 years even with no revenue.

Saying "No revenue for 3 years" when there's already revenue from Go Figure products that are about to go into another 200 stores, and when supply has already been made of LPLDL to generate revenue, and it only launched yesterday.

Things like "All the big boys will blow you out of the water" when the IP is absolutely watertight. It's a combination of bacteria species for goodness sake - how can you replicate that without using the same species? It's rather an easy infringement to prove.

I have managed to convince myself that OPTI:Optibiotix is under attack, and that makes me very angry. When someone's trying to screw you, you fight back. The only way I know to fight back is to take advantage of the shares being so cheap and buy more. Then when the attack stops, I'll be sure to have the last laugh - and my laugh will go on for decades!

First I had to find something I was willing to sell. That's easier said than done at the moment. I looked to my SIPP. Altogether I had over 150,000 shares in JLP:Jubilee Platinum, which has heaps of promise, but has tried my patience lately. Every time there seems to be a breakthrough or ground breaking news, the BoD manage to do something daft and the price gets clobbered again. I still think this will be a great share, but less great than OPTI:Optibiotix, so I sold the 55,306 in my SIPP for 4.4p after paying 4.22 and made a spectacular £69.26 (2.9%) profit. Frustrating given that it was making about £800 profit a few weeks ago! This liberated £2,421.51 for me to invest in OPTI:Optibiotix.

I bought 3,597 shares at 64.28p costing £2,324.10. I wanted more, but frustratingly they were not available to buy from an online quote this morning so I had to leave a limit order. Good news was my limit order was 66p which I thought was a bargain, and the price dropped even further so I got them cheaper, but have a small amount of cash stranded in my SIPP now until I sell something else. This purchase took my average price in the SIPP from 71.83p to 69.18p, so a return to the low 70's will put them in profit. For now they are losing £911 as the bid price has dropped to 61p - bugger!

As soon as the email came through confirming the limit order had been dealt and I saw the price, I grabbed my mobile phone and executed Plan B. After the misery of Brexit, TW.:Taylor Wimpey had finally climbed back to the 200p I bought them for, and when dividends are included were up by £42.09, with another dividend on the way soon, even if I sell now. I regretted buying housebuilder shares almost as soon as I got them. They pay great dividends but they are so volatile with the slightest change in sentiment of the housing market or interest rates or tax laws. Absolute nightmare,  and I've wanted out but wouldn't take a loss. I sold my 600 shares today for 201.33p which without dividends was a £23.37 loss, basically the commission and amounts to 1.5%. This liberated £1,196.03 in my ISA. I could now get an online quote, so bought 1,848 OPTI:Optibiotix at 64.27p costing £1,199.66. This took my average ISA price from 78.7p to 76.15p. Given I bought a lot of these at 90p, this is a great result. The ISA holding is now losing £1,649.40 - Grr!

So, OPTI:Optibiotix now makes up 27.1% of my combined portfolios with 22,737 shares making a total paper loss of £2,681.78. What was that about a max 10% rule?

Ahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!! What have I done?!

My shares in OPTI spin-off SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics are down by 34% and losing £353,28 so between them they are down by three grand.

Ahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!

I just don't care - well - actually I do care quite a lot. I feel an anger and frustration deep deep down that the world can't see the promise about to explode from this company. Maybe it can see, but chooses to watch like a predator for the right moment to pounce. Kinda wish I'd done that now, but regret will evaporate if I get a bucket load of free SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics shares for being invested here for so long.

That's it - Monday gave a great buffer, with combined portfolios up £800 from last week's catastrophe, but £500 of that vanished yesterday and another £700 today, so we're £388 in the red for the week and £1,732 in the red overall. I would have been feeling depressed and miserable after this week's price drops, but instead I feel elated and brimming with confidence that the worm will soon turn, and when it does it will be like one of them from Tremors and scoff everything in its path!

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