Saturday, 4 August 2018

Week 156 Review - Best ever week obliterated

I'm having to pinch myself.

Two weeks ago I had my best ever week by miles. The portfolio value increased by £13,318, beating my previous record by about £8,000. I wrote "A new benchmark to judge other weeks by. How long till this record gets broken?" I honestly believed it could be years before seeing that kind of rise again.

Well I was wrong!

This week the portfolio value increased by a flabbergasting £18,442 and completely smashed the record from 2 weeks ago. It was nearly all thanks to a meteoric rise in OPTI:Optibiotix which has left me giggling hysterically and wondering when it will stop.

The rise took the combined portfolio value to £117,660 so not only punched through the £110K barrier but came perilously close to £120K. The buffer between cost and value has increased to £31,243. It was in the red a few weeks ago!

There were a few poor performers this week, but nothing desperately bad. Both RED:RedT Energy and TRX:Tissue Regenix dropped 5%. I think both these companies are very similar. They have extremely exciting products, but are yet to demonstrate they can make any money out of them, as their cash burn may always be greater than their revenues.

There were a couple of 5% risers this week, with both JLP:Jubilee Metals and KIBO:Kibo Energy (re-named this week from Kibo Mining) climbing after recent drops. The former probably due to a chance to increase their stake in the big-money Kabwe project following the de-listing of BMR:BMR Mining. The increase in KIBO:Kibo Energy may be due to a successful placing at 5.25p which is a significant premium to the current 4.35p share price.

TLOU:Tlou Energy rose by 6% and hopefully this will continue as it's still 26% down, and IKA:Ilika climbed by 8% despite the share price dropping, as my open offer shares were added and bought at a discount.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics would normally have won Share of the Week with a 32% climb taking them 80% up overall, but that accolade is reserved for an even better company.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed a staggering 24p which is a 36% increase and worth £18,000 of this week's rise. There was no news to drive the rise, simply a decision by lots of people who have been waiting in the wings that this is the time to buy. The rise took the market cap past £100 million and into the sights of bigger institutional investors, so absolutely anything could happen now.

I keep banging on about the three years of misery and frustration, and consoling myself with the fact it allowed me to divert the majority of my portfolio into OPTI:Optibiotix while it was cheap, but I was only able to do that because of the unwavering confidence in the BoD and their IP. A company with shareholders interests at the root of everything they do is hard to find. I think CAML:Central Asia Metals are the other example, and I'm determined to re-build my larger stake in that company while the price is depressed.

So OPTI:Optibiotix goes to paper profit of £39,436 (80%) and a total value if I flogged the lot now of £88,853. I don't intend selling a single share. Things have only just got started here, and with such a low cash burn, once profits start coming in there are likely to be regular dividends. If the share price by the time regular dividends are issued is around 250p at 3% return, that would be 7.5p. 7.5p is 11.36% of the 66p I paid. That's a pretty good return for the long term! It would also be worth £5,625 a dividend, so this is a long term hold for income as well as growth.




No need to have worried about the spike reducing by Friday - it just kept getting bigger!

Here's the ISA and share portfolios as we come to the end of year 3



Weekly Change
Cash £11.02
-£100.00
Portfolio cost £56,147.10
+£100.00
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £76,519.60 (36.3%) +£12,956.30
Potential profits £27,408.21
+£12,479.91
Yr 3 Dividends £59.28
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £11,984.62
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £1,000.22 (21.4%) -£19.61
Total Dividends £1,238.33
+£0
Total Profit from sales £18,697.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £549.69 (11.7%) -£3.55
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

£100 went into the IKA:Ilika open offer, and not much change other than that - apart from the £12,479 increase in potential profits!

Year three has ended, and it was a good year resulting in realised profits plus dividends of over £12,000 so a nice average of £1,000 a month. Much of that was from selling off most of my IQE:IQE holding and all my VRS:Versarien. Now would be a great time to buy more IQE:IQE and I wish my pension transfer would hurry up so I can.

Now is possibly not a good time to buy back into VRS:Versarien as I still think they will do the same as OPTI:Optibiotix and trade within a range until the commercial deals start to bear fruit. As the collaborations are still R&D developing potential new products, I think the herd will get bored and the price will drop back below £1. If they don't, then I miss the boat, but avoid another 3 years of misery like I had with OPTI:Optibiotix. The main difference is I already made £3,950 profit from VRS:Versarien which lessens the misery substantially.




Deficit? What deficit?

Here's the SIPP after week 140



Weekly Change
Cash £20.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £39,043.79 (40%) +£5,600.25
Potential profits £14,081.73
+£5,712.32
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £220.12 (9.5%) -£6.29
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £356.64 (15.3%) -£2.57
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story to the other accounts, with OPTI:Optibiotix dominating the rise. Most of the other shares went down, especially TRX:Tissue Regenix, so portfolio value increased less than potential profits.




The chart looks a bit odd now - I think for next week I need to adjust the scale so it doesn't start at £0

I can start talking about the trading account again now it's kick-started in week 106



Weekly Change
Cash £522.16
+£522.13
Portfolio cost £1,823.53
+£1,477.88
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,544.25 (-15.3%) -£113.85
Potential profits £33.52
+£33.52
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £0 (0%) +£0
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£9.82 (-6.5%) +£0.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

I injected £2,000 into the account and bought three lots of shares, leaving just over £500 in the account. The shares lost £113 in the first week, but some had significant spread. KOD:Kodal Minerals is up by 7% which is the £33 profit. It has reasonable momentum so I'll hang on to them for a while. TEK:Tekcapital have dropped 22% but have 15% spread, and CAML:Central Asia Metals have dropped 8%. LION:Lionsgold is still suspended. Ideally I need £241 profit so I can zero out the losses and start making some money in year 3 after a very crappy 2 years.




This chart will look a bit odd for a while

So, the best ever week. I'm almost scared to think about next week. My ultimate nightmare would be something that removes all my paper profits, but I'm determined to hang onto as many OPTI:Optibiotix shares as possible pretty much forever, and use the dividends from spin-offs or profits to fund purchases of other shares.

Meanwhile, I'll enjoy a nice bottle of Rioja tonight and toast all the good folk at OPTI:Optibiotix, and the amazing BB community on Advfn who, aside from the odd troll, help massively in spotting stories about OPTI and the microbiome, or in Elrico's case actually writes the stories!

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