Saturday, 25 August 2018

Week 159 Review - The dreaded spike is formed

A second really bad week on the run has wiped out a significant chunk of my paper profits as the inevitable trading of OPTI:Optibiotix stocks continues. I guess there was no reason why it should be different this time, but it's rather depressing. The combined portfolios dropped by £6,393 narrowing the buffer between value and cost to £16,004 and dropping portfolio value to £103,396. Dropping below £100K is suddenly a real possibility and may just crush my morale.

There was only one really poor performer all week, but it was OPTI:Optibiotix dropping 9p, which was a loss of 13%. The spread was really wide at the end of Friday, with bid price 100p and offer price 105p so I'm hoping the bid price was artificially low and the drop wasn't quite as bad. We'll find out next week.

TAP:Taptica had another good week in my trading account, climbing 5% this is now making paper profit of £34 (7%). I'm planning to hold it up to results in the hope of a significant re-rate.

CAML:Central Asia Metals finally had a decent week, climbing 5%, but that wasn't even enough to recoup last week's losses. I'd still buy a pile of these if I had the cash.

RED:RedT Energy wins Share of the Week. The order from Anglia Water is just for one site, but they have hundreds of sites. If the first can be delivered quickly and successfully, then the scope for re-orders is massive. There's a real chance the volume orders required to be profitable are materialising as vanadium redox flow machines become accepted as the most appropriate technology for grid level storage. The share price climbed 31% this week and is now only down by 9%.




Ouch! Damn you spike!!

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £10.36
-£1,863.95
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£1,863.95
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £66,994.78 (17.6%) -£4,369.22
Potential profits £17,075.81
-£4,546.92
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £1,213.82 (25.6%) -£606.91
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £562.22 (11.8%) -£3.56
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash dropped as I re-invested in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. The timing was good, as spread and commission have been cleared and they are up 4% making £68 potential profit. I'm loathe to sell them again, but if there is another spike and we're still a way off revenue then I might. The fact I managed to increase my holding by 1,774 shares by selling high and buying back lower makes it a tempting, if somewhat risky option. With OPTI:Optibiotix being played so blatantly and my determination to stay long and strong there, I could consider my "bonus" SBTX:SkinBioTherapuetics holding as expendable.

Most of the losses were reducing OPTI:Optibiotix profit, but value fell by around £200 less than profit dropped, so there were a few small gains away from that. We've only had 3 weeks of year 4, so the projected average is still daft, and overall performance dropped as a percentage a bit more than usual thanks to the increase in portfolio cost this week. 11.8% is still healthily above my 10% target though.




Charts are looking rather similar these days.

Here's the SIPP after week 143



Weekly Change
Cash £56.00
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £34,198.16 (22.6%) -£2,047.12
Potential profits £9,276.49
-£1,994.41
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £201.63 (8.7%) -£5.31
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £348.73 (15%) -£2.46
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Pretty much the same story as above, but the CAML:Central Asia Metals rise meant potential profits didn't drop as much as overall sell value.




Snap

Trading looks like this after 109 weeks



Weekly Change
Cash £650.93
+£0
Portfolio cost £1,821.83
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,485.92 (-18.4%) +£23.35
Potential profits £34.08
+£23.52
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £153.45 (101.1%) -£38.36
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.51 (-1.7%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The rise in TAP:Taptica has improved paper profits by £23 and if it can just get above £65 profit then I can sell and finally get this account into the black!




Not really showing any pattern, but lots of pretty colours!

Bank holiday week next week so not much happening. However, OPTI:Optibiotix are due to announce interim results on Thursday. They have been very coy about giving any form of forecasts, but surely there must be some revenue coming in now? The results don't have to identify who has been buying product, but product must have been bought to supply Seed Health and for getting Slimbiome into cereal products. Nobody is expecting fireworks at this stage, but if there is a pleasant surprise then my portfolio value may be able to stay safely above £100K.

I'm actually in a better all-round position than in ages, with 6 shares in paper profit. It's been only 2 for a long time now. AMYT:Amryt Pharma, MTFB:Motif Bio, OPTI:Optibiotix, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, CAML:Central Asia Metals and TAP:Taptica. Well done chaps!

Quite a few shares are only down by a few percent too. MMX:Minds + Machines, PAF:Pan African Resources and RED:RedT Energy are very nearly in profit.

Unfortunately I'm being weighed down by some hefty positions in companies that just can't get the share price up. The likes of JLP:Jubilee Metals, KIBO:Kibo Energy and TRX:Tissue Regenix all have great potential, but are not getting anywhere fast. I'll never sell them at a loss though. They either go under and take everything or bounce back and do themselves proud. I know this game is for the patient, but sometimes that level of patience is really hard...

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