Sunday, 19 August 2018

Week 158 Review - Worst ever week

I suppose it was too good to last. This week was wretched on every front, with losses across the board, but the pummeling taken as traders offloaded OPTI:Optibiotix caused a £8,171 drop in portfolio value, reducing the paper profit to £22,397 and overall value to £109,789, slipping bellow £110K.

OPTI:Optibiotix was clearly the worst performer, with a 16% drop but maintaining healthy profits of 64%.

My second largest holding CAML:Central Asia Metals had yet another dreadful week as all the miners got hammered by the falling copper price. The share price dropped 10% and is now only 22% up on my original purchase. What investors fail to realise is that CAML:Central Asia Metals were making big profits and paying big dividends last time the copper price fell, as they are a low cost operation and can ride these dips comfortably. I'm almost certain I will find a way to increase my holding in the run up to results on September 19th, because there should be a very rapid correction.

TEK:Tekcapital is one of my trading account shares, and dropped 11% this week to go 26% down. I vowed I would sell quick if this happened, but with great big spreads and ultra-volatile prices, it's just not possible to avoid these large short term losses, unless I choose more liquid shares. Maybe that's my mistake.

CEY:Centamin had another bad week as the price of gold continued downwards. Another 6% down means they are now losing 19%. Not quite the quick win I thought this was going to be!

TLOU:Tlou Energy also dropped 6% and is now 32% down. This was another knife I managed to grasp as if fell past me!

IQE:IQE is still in the grips of shorters, and dropped 5% this week as it nudges closer to the 99p range when I'll buy with my trading account.

There were only three significant risers this week, although I should mention AMYT:Amryt Pharma climbed a small 3% but it was enough to take them into profit, albeit by only £26.

MTFB:Motif Bio climbed 6% and are back in potential profit of £109 (3%) with rising confidence now the FDA have accepted the NDA for Iclaprim. Just six months to wait for approval now, but any news of manufacturing or commercialisation agreements could cause a significant rise in the share price.

MMX:Minds + Machines are also brimming with confidence after an agreement with Etherium to use their .luxe for crypto currency exchanges. Apparently it stands for "lets you exchange easily" and can be used to replace a complex Etherium key URL. This week they climbed 7% and are only 3% down now.

TAP:Taptica wins Share of the Week in the trading account, climbing 8% and going £10 into profit. I'm hoping to be able to sell these following the results, or in the lead up to results if there's a spike.




I was hoping when the reversal came it would be a little flatter

Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts



Weekly Change
Cash £1,874.31
+£0
Portfolio cost £55,094.60
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £69,500.05 (26.1%) -£5,241.30
Potential profits £21,622.73
-£4,923.00
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £1,820.73 (39.7%) -£1,820.73
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £565.78 (12.3%) -£3.60
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Not a lot to say other than losses deepened even more than OPTI:Optibiotix profits dropped in a week showing very few highlights. Year 4 average profit will be skewed for a while due to the big week 1 sale being extrapolated over the whole year, but I'm happy for long term average profits to be only dropping by about £3 a week.

The cash from the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics sale is still there waiting to be spent. I almost got back in on Thursday at 20p but missed out and there was a recovery to 21p on Friday. 20p would have secured me over 1,000 more shares than when I sold them. Maybe traders will attack it again next week and give me another chance. If not, it's destined for a CAML:Central Asia Metals top-up.




I think all the charts will look the same this week

Here's the SIPP after week 108



Weekly Change
Cash £56.00
+£50.00
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £36,245.28 (29.9%) -£2,883.94
Potential profits £11,270.90
-£2,759.45
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £206.94 (8.9%) -£5.59
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £351.19 (15.1%) -£2.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

I transferred £50 from my trading account into the SIPP to cover monthly fees. I figure that's a legitimate use of profits. Elsewhere it's the same story as the ISA, with losses deepening even more than paper profits fell.




Similar to the ISA chart. Next week I'll tweak the scale to lose the £15-20K white space.

The trading account looks like this



Weekly Change
Cash £650.93
-£50.00
Portfolio cost £1,821.83
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,462.57 (-19.7%) -£44.80
Potential profits £10.56
+£10.56
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £191.81 (126.3%) -£63.94
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.53 (-1.7%) +£0.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

TAP:Taptica went into profit and £50 got robbed for the SIPP, leaving £150 left over in cash when I buy my next £500 of shares. It might very well be IQE:IQE if they drop below 100p as KOD:Kodal Minerals didn't drop like I expected. Mostly bad news elsewhere, with portfolio dropping by £44.




I've added a line for the injections. I might do that for SIPP as well, as I should be able to calculate them. Might be harder for the ISA as I bought a lot in the old Brewin Dolphin account.

That's it for week 158. I'd quite like to forget about it as soon as possible and see what happens next week. Please can we have news of a deal OPTI:Optibiotix?

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