Saturday, 11 August 2018

Week 157 Review - Sold SkinBioTherapeutics - Was it a mistake?

A flat week resulting in the gap between cost and value worsening by £674, but that was due to selling SBTX:SkinBioTherapueutics otherwise there would have been a small rise. The portfolio value plus cash climbed by exactly £300 to £117,960 after dallying above £120K for a few days, and the gap between cost and value now stands at £30,568 in the black.

There was very little movement in any shares this week

TND:Tandem Group was the only one that dropped by 5% or more - in fact it dropped 5% and is now 40% down. That was on virtually no trades, so this one continues to quietly under-perform.

The only riser above 5% was KIBO:Kibo Energy which climbed 7% to Share of the Week and is now only 31% down. It's been very slowly climbing, and I wonder if this is in anticipation that the Power Purchase Agreement might actually get signed. I expect a doubling if it does, so fingers crossed.




A very flat week.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £1,874.31
+£1,863.29
Portfolio cost £55,094.60
-£1,052.50
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £74,741.35 (35.7%) -£1,778.25
Potential profits £26,545.73
-£862.48
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£29.56
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£814.53
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £3,641.46 (79.3%) +£3,641.46
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£29.56
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£814.53
Average monthly cash profit £569.38 (12.4%) +£19.69
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A complicated week!

Cash rise due to the proceeds of selling off SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. I was concerned that it had climbed above its value on the tails of the OPTI:Optibiotix rise, and although human trials are due to start next month, they won't be reporting back for some time, so there will be plenty of time for shareholders to get bored.

I watched OPTI:Optibiotix being traded for years and didn't partake because I didn't want to risk losing any rights to dividends. That's why I'm keeping every single share in OPTI:Optibiotix. However, my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics holding was more of a bonus. I retain a large holding courtesy of my OPTI:Optibiotix shares anyway, so I'm willing to risk dipping in and out on price movements. I don't want the share price to go down, but if it does I'll be retaining my profits from the sale to buy back in, despite massive temptation to buy CAML:Central Asia Metals or IQE:IQE following recent dips!

So I sold my 7,486 shares at 25.1p which gave me a £814.53 (76.5%) profit. It liberated £1,867.04 and my plan is to transfer £67 into my SIPP to cover account charges for the next 6 months, and use the £1,800 to buy back into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics if there is a dip. If not, then hurray! I'll buy something else instead.

The sale reduced the portfolio cost by my original purchase price and the portfolio sell value reduced by that plus some of the profits, but not all so there was a slight improvement elsewhere.

A nice surprise arrived in the post - PUR:Pure Wafer have finally sorted out their tax dispute and been allowed to pay off their final dividend. I was expecting £18 but a cheque arrived for £29.56 which was nice, especially as it's week 1 of year 4 so I don't start the year on zero.

Year 4 performance looks stupid as it's anticipating the same amount of sells every week. That will drop rapidly assuming I don't sell anything else. Long term average profits increased by £19 per month which is great over 3 years and takes me to an average of 12.4% of the current portfolio value, which is now around double what I've invested. One day I really need to calculate exactly how much I've put in, but that could be a challenge.




Flat, with a wee dip in cost until I buy something else.

The SIPP looks like this after week 141



Weekly Change
Cash £6.00
-£14.03
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £39,130.22 (40.3%) +£86.43
Potential profits £14,030.35
-£51.38
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £212.53 (9.1%) -£7.59
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £353.68 (15.2%) -£2.96
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Hardly anything happened. The monthly charge reduced my cash to dangerously low levels so I'll need to top up a bit from my ISA next week. Small rises in IQE:IQE and PAF:Pan African Resources helped reduce losses, but another drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals reduced potential profits by £51. I'm seriously thinking about selling my PAF:Pan African Resources shares in order to buy CAML:Central Asia Metals at these ludicrously depressed prices, as although PAF:Pan African Resources is also massively under-valued, it is a much more risky company. I do like them both though, so it's a tough decision. If my poxy pension transfer would hurry up and come through I'd pile about £10K into CAML:Central Asia Metals as it's an utterly superb company and the current price is baffling and a bargain of the century.




Even flatter than the ISA - but I remembered to adjust the scale so the chart looks a bit nicer

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 107



Weekly Change
Cash £700.93
+£178.77
Portfolio cost £1,821.83
-£1.70
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,507.37 (-17.3%) -£36.88
Potential profits £0
-£33.52
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£177.06
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £255.75 (168.5%) +£255.75
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£177.06
Average monthly cash profit -£2.56 (-1.7%) +£7.26
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Yes - that's more like it. Action at last. If in doubt, chuck some money at it!

I sold KOD:Kodal Minerals after an inexplicable price rise, and just in time as they issued an RNS shortly after my sale to say they didn't know why the price had gone up, and announcement of their JORC results isn't until next month. That dropped the price, although it still ended well up. I sold my 287,088 shares for 0.24p after buying at 0.17p last week and made £177.06 (34.5%) profit. That's what a trading account is supposed to be like! I'll now watch them like a hawk for a chance to buy back in.

Needless to say my other trades have been less successful, with CAML:Central Asia Metals 9% down, and TEK:Tekcapital 15% down. I also bought 168 shares in TAP:Taptica for 289.49p costing £498.29. This is a company I've been watching very carefully and could be a great trading share. The price is astonishingly volatile, and I believe severely undervalued at the moment. Needless to say, it's 6% down, but most of that is spread and commission.

The effect of the sale and profit was to improve my long term performance dramatically. I'm still not making a profit, but the loss is only £2.56 a month now, so one more good sale should get me into the black. At the moment I still would have been better off putting it in a building society.




I ought to put a line in at £2,500 as that's the cash injection. Otherwise it looks like it's doing better than it is. I'll add that next week.

I haven't really mentioned OPTI:Optibiotix as much as I would like. The price was unchanged at the end of the week, but did get much higher mid-week. The ShareProphets tipster site recommended their followers top-slice some profit during the week, which is utterly mental in my view, but I guess they need to be able to say they helped people make some money - just a lot less than if they hold for their dividend and the next inevitably huge announcement.

Speaking of which, there have been no announcements of new deals for weeks. This is most unusual. Granted, it hasn't mattered as the share price has behaved beautifully, but I'm missing reading those exciting RNS alerts.

Given the recommendation to sell, the price did very well to hold onto last week's gains. I don't know how much steam it has left in it. Maybe we'll linger around this level for a while - it would be a bit of a relief as my expectations were starting to get ahead of themselves. It's crucial that we back up this momentum with some revenue figures, so hopefully in the next few months we will be in a position to do that.

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