Saturday, 4 July 2020

Week 256 Review - Another slide downwards, but more bargain Optibiotix in the bag

It's been another rubbish week, with another £2,810 knocked off the portfolio value. No massive crashes, but OPTI:Optibiotix drifting another 2p accounted for most of the drop.It's very demoralising, as the dip drip decline has been going on for 6 weeks now, aside for one brief increase. The gap between cost and value has widened to £38,029 and total portfolio and cash is worth £79,967.

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 9%, which makes me very relieved I sold my trading shares. Now it's at the level where I want to buy hem back again, so early next week I will aim to take a small profit from SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and buy these back.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy is still on a bit of a run, climbing 5%. They are still 68% down, but things are looking reasonably hopefull.

Share of the Week is MMX:Minds + Machines which climbed 6%. After going nowhere for ages, I'm wondering if maybe a dividend announcement is on the way? These are still 23% down but could soon make that up if a positive trading statement is issued.




Ooh dear, the orange line is moving up to meet the green one!





Only just above the trend line now. It could be worse I suppose.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £244.81   

+£230.18
Portfolio cost £62,090.24
+£2,019.82
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £40,476.19 (-34.8%) -£1,897.70
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.85
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-14.48
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£4.62 (-0.1%) +£0.09
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,376.93
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £363.78     (7.0%) -£1.43
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 10.5%
-0.6%
Compound performance 52%
-2%

Quite a lot going on here. Cash has gone up by £230 because I added some to cover the TLOU:Tlou Energy open offer. I've applied for 8,809 shares which is above my allocation, but if I get them it will take my holding to 40,000 shares. Given my average purchase price is 8.66p and the open offer is for 2.2p, I should bring my average down quite a lot. I could buy them for the same price on the open market, but would have to pay commission.

The cost went up by £2,019 because I did what I always do when OPTI:Optibiotix drops. I get upset and buy some more while they're cheap, then I feel much better. I've saved a fortune during lockdown and have paid off my visa bill completely, so I figured I could stand a £2,000 loan over 12 months. I used it to buy 3,810 shares at 52.7p costing 2,019.82.

That brings my total OPTI:Optibiotix holding to 115,471 at an average price of 64.14p costing £74,487.91. They are currently losing £17,942.97 which is beyond frustrating, but it doesn't matter. The story is still good. There was a huge announcement this week of a deal with a company that supplies pharmacies and doctors who will be putting their own already respected brand on LP-LDL. I still don't understand how the market can't see that deal after deal is building revenues slowly but steadily to a point where they just take off. When that point hits, the panic to buy these will be pandemonium. That's when the years of frustration will evaporate.

A bad week, with the portfolio value losing £1,897 and the increased injection meant a drop in both the performance compared to injection and compound performance. In summary, we're not doing very well at the moment.




The injection line has overtaken the value line and we're back having less than we put in. Bugger!




Amazingly we're still above the trend line, which is a surprise.

The SIPP looks like this after week 240



Weekly Change
Cash £62.35
+£28.67
Portfolio cost £53,058.85
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£37,531.63 (-29.3%) -£907.54
Potential profits £189.29
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £28.67
+£28.67
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £116.44
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit £6.44 (0.1%) +£3.79
Total Dividends £1,927.91
+£28.67
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,665.54
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £253.73 (5.7%) -£0.54
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 8.7%
+0%
Compound performance 40%
+0%

I had a dividend from FXPO:Ferrexpo! £28.67 was a lot less than I was expecting thanks to Swiss withholding tax, which actually means the dividend yield isn't anywhere near as good as suggested in my ranking spreadsheet. It's still better than nothing and has boosted my average performance for year 5 by £3.79 a month, and reduced my long term monthly dip to just 54p.

Aside from that the value dropped by £907. After this week I'm just happy to have lost less than £1,000.

One great bit of news is that there will be more than £2,200 in my SIPP when my July contribution is paid, so I can do a transfer request and should be able to get another 2 magic formula shares in late August, unless I crack and buy more OPTI:Optibiotix! I'm contemplating trying out AJ Bell so I don't risk having all my shares with one broker.




Still a reasonable gap to the injection line, but it's a hell of a long way up to the cost line.




Once again we do enough to stay above the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 206



Weekly Change
Cash £186.37
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,354.11
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,465.85 (-37.7%) -£4.90
Potential profits £30.72
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £320.95
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £28.96 (14.8%) -£0.59
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales £256.66
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £6.41 (3.3%) -£0.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

Pretty flat this week. I only have 2 weeks left of year 4, so want to give the performance a wee boost before then. The potential profits for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics are tiny, but there's a risk that will be stuck in this range for a while, whereas JLP:Jubilee Metals are much more likely to go on a run from the recent dip. I want to get back in there now, so will sell as soon as possible next week. the profits this month are enough to pay my phone bill, so things are looking much better. £6.41 a month long term profit is a bit rubbish though.




Slow and steady climb. Not at all like a trading account should look.




That trend line is a whisker off being flat. We're well above it and I do believe by next week it might have tipped the other way.

The virtual magic formula account is down 15.45% as opposed to 14.6% last week, so it's been a bad week all round. There are only 4 shares in profit so it's looking grim. It's handy as a barometer of the wider market though, and puts this week's losses in perspective.

Looking at last week's wishes, we still haven't had SweetBiotix news for OPTI:Optibiotix, but we did have another great deal which caused a drop in share price. CAML:Central Asia Metals still haven't re-instated the dividend, but I'm confident they will. FXPO:Ferrexpo is not back in the black, in fact it's down 9%, but only 6% if you include the dividend.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is nowhere near 19.5p and I doubt will be for a while now. JLP:Jubilee Metals has done the opposite of my wish and dropped to 3.4p instead of climbing to 4.5p. The only thing that did come true last week was being able to apply for the TLOU:Tlou Energy open offer, so not a complete failure.

In that case I'll put all my wishes back in play, with the caveat that ideally SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics will climb a little on Monday and JLP:Jubilee Metals continue to drop until I can get them back in my trading account.

That's it - time for a pizza and bottle of Malbec. I might do a Jack Reacher I and II back-to-back this evening.

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