Saturday, 25 July 2020

Week 259 Review - Great week but Optibiotix spoils the party

This could have been a fantastic week, even if OPTI:Optibiotix had just stayed still. However, despite a recent trading statement that was frankly amazing, the share price is still drifting. A 2p drop this week cost over £2,200 so it shows how well everything else did when the overall losses were only £601. The deficit between cost and value widened to £35,097 and overall potfolio value is £83,714.

Only one share had a significant percentage loss this week, with WRES:W Resources dropping 9% as it became clear production levels are so low that they are not making ends meet. Glad I only trusted a small amount to this donkey.

CAML:Central Asia Metals climbed 5% and is making steady progress as the price of copper increases, despite having suspended the dividend. My SIPP holding is only 10% down now.

N4P:N4 Pharma also increased 5% but I don't know why. I still hold out very little hope of these remaining solvent.

TLOU:Tlou Energy technically stayed the same price, but I succeeded in getting my entire application of 8,809 open offer shares at 2.2p costing £193.80 with no commission. As that's the current bid price, it meant a 5% improvement on bid price compared to average purchase price. I now have 40,000 shares so just have to wait for the power purchase agreement and financing to be finalised and I'm convinced this will be a great investment.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha is one of my new magic formula shares and climbed an impressive 8% this week after a portfolio update. They are now 4% up and in profit by £36.

Share of the week is JLP:Jubilee Metals, climbing a whopping 21% and going £372 into profit. I was so excited about prospects that I spent my ISA SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics cash on another 37,604 shares at 3.997p costing £1,514.98. Given the price ended the week at 4.6p, these have already made a decent profit. We're only just back around pre-covid prices and metal prices have risen significantly, so I'm now of a mind to hold these for much longer than I originally anticipated, Not sure how I'm going to get back into SBTX though...




Cost isn't quite back to where it was before recent sales so I still have some ammo. Value actually dipped slightly.




Despite the slight drop we're still above the trend line, but dropping at the same rate.

The ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £14.48

-£1,708.78
Portfolio cost £62,366.49
+£1,708.78
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £42,401.64 (-33.1%) -£997.14
Potential profits £372.89
+£372.89
Yr 5 Dividends £0.85
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £35.20
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£0.44 (-0%) +£0.01
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,426.61
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £360.33     (6.9%) -£1.40
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 10.4%
+0%
Compound performance 52%
+0%

Cash is down by the cost of the JLP:Jubilee Metals shares and the TLOU:Tlou Energy open offer. The difference between cost and value worsened by £997 due to the OPTI:Optobiotix drop. Best news is JLP:Jubilee Metals getting into profit at last, and £372 potential profit is great given it was down by about 15% last week.




Still just above the injection line despite the drop




Only just above the trend line, but we've been the right side for 2 months now, so there is hope.

The SIPP looks like this after week 243



Weekly Change
Cash £1,485.74
-£916.14
Portfolio cost £52,370.64
+£1,016.14
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£38,122.54 (-27.2%) -£303.75
Potential profits £75.98
+£32.91
Yr 5 Dividends £28.67
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £765.90
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit £84.53 (1.9%) -£2.49
Total Dividends £1,927.91
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £13,315.00
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £261.93 (6.0%) -£1.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 9%
+0%
Compound performance 42%
+0%

My discipline to hold cash to buy back SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics failed utterly as I've been watching PAY:Paypoint as the next potential addition to my magic formula portfolio. I decided the time was right, and so bought 178 shares at 561.34p costing £1,016.14 with commission and stamp duty. The timing was quite good as by the end of the week they were up 3% and £31 in profit. The cash dropped by £100 less than the purchase price as the tax rebate got paid in.

Despite being a good week, the difference between cost and value worsened by £303 thanks to the OPTI:Optibiotix drop. Potential profits rose by £32 and there are three shares in profit, with APAX:Apax Global Alpha up £37, FXPO:Ferrexpo losing ground but still £8 in profit, and PAY:Paypoint up £31.

There is still £1,485 left in cash for re-buying SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, and £2,000 pension transfer to add to it in a few weeks. Given I've used up my SBTX cash on JLP:Jubilee Metals in my ISA, I'm planning to put all £3,485 into SBTX when the price is right.





You can hardly see the dip




No sign of making the recovery stick - yet.

Here's the trading account after week 209



Weekly Change
Cash £732.67
+£516.62
Portfolio cost £1,842.21
-£511.93
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £957.22 (-48.0%) +£7.28
Potential profits £0
-£21.84
Year 5 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 5 Profit £154.70
+£154.70
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit £670.35 (436.7%) +£670.35
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales £441.07
+£154.70
Average monthly cash profit £10.14 (6.6%) +£3.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

I sold my JLP:Jubilee Metals shares for 4.73p after buying at 3.4815p making £154.69 (29.5%) profit. Cash only went up by £516 as I pulled out £150 to reduce the injection to £2,000. That's £500 of the original injection that's been banked. The difference between cost and value improved by £7 as there were gains and losses in the other shares.

This is week 1 of year 5, so with the sale and projected performance over the next 12 months, the figure of £670 a month is crazy. That will settle down over the weeks, unless of course I manage to maintain £150 a week performance, which is highly unlikely. Long term performance improved to £10 a month so I'm finally starting to see a decent return.

What to buy next? Unfortunately SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics has climbed back to 20p instead of dropping. I'm almost tempted to buy OPTI:Optibiotix, but vowed not to sell any so that's off the table. I need to see if anything has been clobbered recently that may recover. Looking at my existing portfolio there is one candidate. TLOU:Tlou Energy has just done an open offer and the share price has slumped to that figure. There could be potential for a short term recovery, and the announcment of resumed de-watering could see a spike. None of the rest of my existing portfolio look like a good candidate.




Cost and value have suddenly come very close together following the sale all going into cash and supporting the green line. When I buy again the red line will return to where it was, but green line will stay behind.




Very little change here as the sale and profit taking don't impact this chart. Only the difference between cost and value of actual shares matters here.

The virtual magic formula portfolio was down by 15.02% last week and is now down by 15.12% so very little change. There are now 7 shares in profit and the same three down by more than 50%. Maybe I should be checking those as potential trading shares?

How did we do with last weeks wishes?

As predicted we had another OPTI:Optibiotix Wellbiome announcement that didn't stir the market and didn't prevent the drop, so the SweetBiotix announcement is still awaited. That wish carries over. My wish for JLP:Jubilee Metals was to get to 5p. I didn't think that was going to happen so happy I sold at 4.7p and decided to keep my ISA holding longer term. The climb to 4.6p in my ISA was good, and 5p is still on my wish list for next week.

I wished one of APAX:Apax Global Alpha or POLR:Polar Capital Holdings getting into profit did come true, as APAX made it. My wish for this week is for POLR to join them. Still no sign of MTFB:Motif Bio announcing a reverse takeover. We have until Tuesday, so it's looking grim.

I feel bad wishing for SBTX to drop in price, but I want to buy back in, and it needs to get down to 16p. If I never get back in then I'll just have to rely on the OPTI:Optibiotix dividend. I guess that my other wish is I find a suitable share for the trading account.

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