Sunday, 12 July 2020

Week 257 Review - Friday saved the week

It was looking like another miserable week right up to Friday afternoon, when a £2,700 loss became a £2,183 gain. Although that's not even clawed back last weeks losses, it's a whole lot better than I was expecting. The deficit between cost and value narrowed to £35,845 and total portfolio value is £81,657.

There was only one big loser this week, with IQE:IQE dropping 6% in my ISA. The drops were smaller in the other accounts, but the recent positive trend seems to have come to an abrupt halt. Even my ISA holding is 41% down, and that was meant to be the short term "quick win" bought at a bargain price for quick profit. The SIPP holding was bought in the peak of optimism and is 66% down.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha is one of my new magic formula shares, and rather typically had halted its post-Covid recovery the second I bought them. They increased 5% this week and so are worth more than I paid for them, but commission charges mean they are still £1.36 underwater. I'm hoping they will be green next week. The next dividend ex-date will be in early August with payment in mid-September.

CAML:Central Asia Metals had a good week, climbing 7%. As my 2nd largest holding that did wonders for my SIPP. They gave a very positive update, but frustratingly didn't mention when they will review the postponed dividend. Kazakhstan has re-imposed Covid lockdown after a recent spike, so I can see why the board remain cautious. These are still 16% down, and such a bargain I'm tempted to get some more.

FXPO:Ferrexpo is another one of my magic formula shares, and also climbed 7% this week. It means they are only 2% down now and another I hope will go into the green next week.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which surged 10% in my ISA and 14% in my SIPP. Unfortunately I sold my trading account holding just before the surge, but more of that in the appropriate section. My SIPP holding is up 25% and I need to start thinking about whether I stick to my plan to take profits at 19.5p as it may happen next week. My ISA holding is still 7% down. If anything that's the one I ought to consider selling at a smaller profit just to clear the fact I bought them so expensive and hang fire for the next dip. Selling them never really feels like selling them as I still have such a big stake via OPTI:Optibiotix.




Always a relief to bounce off the injection line




Managed to prevent dipping below the trend line, but still following it down.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £241.06   

-£3.75
Portfolio cost £62,090.24
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £41,368.39 (-33.4%) +£892.20
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.85
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-14.48
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£4.85 (-0.1%) -£0.23
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,376.93
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £362.30     (7.0%) -£1.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 10.4%
-0.1%
Compound performance 52%
+0%

Cash dropped due to the monthly fee and I still have my £200 cash waiting on the TLOU:Tlou Energy open offer. Most of the rise was due to OPTI:Optibiotix climbing 1p, but given it was making a 3p loss until Friday lunchtime that was a good week. I only have 3 weeks until the end of year 5 and I'm still making a loss for the year. My best hope of getting into positive territory is selling SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics for a small profit. 20.5p would do it, but given resistance is 20p I don't think it's going to happen.




Still below the injection line, but only just.




Boing!

The SIPP looks like this after week 241



Weekly Change
Cash £48.08
-£14.27
Portfolio cost £53,058.85
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£38,878.30 (-26.7%) +£1,346.67
Potential profits £420.27
+£230.98
Yr 5 Dividends £28.67
+£0
Yr 5 Interest £0.03
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £116.44
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit £4.38 (0.1%) -£2.06
Total Dividends £1,927.91
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,665.54
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £252.42 (5.7%) -£1.31
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 8.6%
-0.1%
Compound performance 40%
+0%

Cash dropped due to the monthly fees, and portfolio value increased by much more than the ISA thanks to the addition of CAML:Central Asia Metals and my magic formula shares. Potential profits are up by £230 thanks to SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and I'm sorely tempted to cash it in next week and wait for the inevitable drop to increase my holding.




As the cost goes up the value has been going down, so we're a long, long way from being back in the black.




Another save from dipping below the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 207



Weekly Change
Cash £216.05
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,354.14
+£0.03
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,410.84 (-40.1%) -£55.04
Potential profits £0
-£30.72
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £350.66
+£29.71
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £30.92 (15.8%) +£1.96
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales £286.37
+£29.71
Average monthly cash profit £7.00 (3.6%) +£0.59
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

I thought JLP:Jubilee Metals were about to surge after the recent dip, and I thought SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics was about to start slipping again. I was wrong on both counts.

I sold my holding in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics for a measly £29.71 (5.6%) profit but would have made £97 if I'd waited until Friday. Meanwhile the shares JLP:Jubilee Metals gave to Horizon for the recent tailings deal were all sold off and the share price dipped further, although recovered to 3.55p by the end of Friday. I bought 14,361 shares on Monday at 3.4815p costing £511.93. They are only losing commission now, so I'm still hopeful they will allow a relatively quick profit, especially if we get a trading statement.

Next week is the final week of year 4 for this account, so whatever happens I'm going to end up with over £30 a month (15.8%) average profit for the year. That's exactly the sort of thing I hoped this account would generate, so I'm very happy. It's a shame I've had to do that based on just £500 of my stake. It makes me realise how much I could have made if the early decisions weren't so dreadful.

Long term performance is now £7 a month over 4 years, which is 3.6%. Well below my usual 10% target, but given I was loss making for the first 3 years it's a lot better.




Slowly but steadily moving towards at least the injection line




That's it - the trend line is pointing upwards for the first time in forever! Granted it's a hell of a long way below zero, but at least moving in the right direction.

Last week the virtual magic formula portfolio was down 15.45% and this week it's only down 14.84%. If next week's pension transfer takes me above £2,200 I'll need to do some number crunching to find out which two new shares to buy. It's really tempting just to get another £2,000 worth of CAML:Central Asia Metals though. The mind boggles at why those are still so low.

Looking at last week's wishes, we still haven't had SweetBiotix news for OPTI:Optibiotix. CAML:Central Asia Metals had a chance to mention the dividend but didn't, so I'm scrubbing that off my wish list until autumn. FXPO:Ferrexpo is not back in the black, but is getting close so that wish will stay. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics got close to 19.5p but I'd already sold up my trading shares. I may still sell my SIPP if they get there this week. JLP:Jubilee Metals did drop a little allowing me to buy, so a fast rise is back on my wish list because of the trading account, so I need a trading update and to hit 5p.

No comments:

Post a Comment