Week 258 Review - Goodbye to SkinBioTherapeutics, or is it adieu?

This week was very flat. Hardly anything changed, but a 1p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix meant the difference between cost and value of the portfolios improved by £1,348. The deficit is now £34,496 and total portfolio value plus cash is £84,210.

The only big loser was SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy which dropped 5% after announcing it was only going ahead with half the capacity at Uskmouth. I'm surprised this caused a drop, because if I was managing the project I would have started out getting the one generator working before embarking on the second as it means revenue is coming in faster, and any teething troubles that might require changes will be addressed before starting the second phase, making that phase much smoother. The drop means these are 77% down and a long way from being in profit.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a reasonable week. I think it would have been better if they didn't announce they were planning on buying more copper rich tailings in the near future, as everyone assumes there will be a placing to pay for it and so the superb trading figures only caused a 5% rise in my ISA and 7% in my trading account.

Share of the week is FXPO:Ferrexpo, which climbed 6% and returned to profit. It's nice to have some green in the SIPP.

Ooh look - a mysterious dip in cost - what could that be?

Heading in the right direction, but for how long?

Here's the ISA and share accounts

			Weekly Change
Cash	£1,723.26		+£1,482.20
Portfolio cost	£60,657.71		-£1,432.53
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£40,997.39	(-32.4%)	+£1,061.53
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.85		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£35.20		+£49.68
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£0.45	(-0%)	+£4.40
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£49.68
Average monthly cash profit	£361.73	(7.2%)	-£0.57
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.4%		+0%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Cash is up and cost down because I sold SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. Why did I sell for a measly £49 profit? I was fed up of resistance keep being hit at 20p as the traders manipulate the share. It's a self fulfilling prophecy, but it's been going on for ages and with my purchase being made at 19.5p I never quite got into profit before it dropped.

This time it hit 20.51p so I sold them quick, thinking I would both get the year 5 performance in the black and then be able to buy back on the inevitable drop. I can afford to take risks with these shares as I have a massive stake in OPTI:Optibiotix so I already own a big chunk of this company. It's about time I got a bit more mercenary instead of watching everyone else make profits from the volatility.

So far it's looking like the right thing to have done, as the bid price has dropped to 18.5p and I could buy back at 19.25p and increase my holding. I'm holding out until 16p though.

Although the sale put me in the black by £35 for year 5, I forgot there are still some ISA charges to take into account, and so my year 5 performance is still in the red by 45p a month. I still have 2 weeks of the year to go, so that will improve by a few pence, but I won't be able to sell anything more. The only impact on my long term performance was to make the drop slightly less than it would have been. An average of £361 a month for 5 years isn't bad though, but it's not enough to live on!

Back above the injection line

Bouncing off the trend line and managed to stay the right side.

Here's the SIPP after week 242

			Weekly Change
Cash	£2,401.88		+£2,353.80
Portfolio cost	£51,354.51		-£1,704.34
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£37,410.16	(-27.2%)	+£236.20
Potential profits	£43.07		-£377.20
Yr 5 Dividends	£28.67		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£765.90		+£649.46
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£87.02	(2.0%)	+£82.64
Total Dividends	£1,927.91		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£13,315.00		+£649.46
Average monthly cash profit	£263.01	(6.1%)	+£10.59
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	9%		+0.4%
Compound performance	42%		+2%

I sold my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares in this account too, but did a lot better as I bought them for 14.654p and sold 7,500 for 20.63p making £424.30 (20.62%) profit and 4,049 for 20.51p making £225.16 (20.5%) profit. I split the sale as the exchange market size for SBTX is 7,500 and I wanted to ensure I could get an online quote. I cost me an extra £11.95 commission, but I got a good price for the first sale.

I've kept the cash as I want to re-invest in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics once it drops down to 16p. If it doesn't drop to that price, then I'll either buy more OPTI:Optibiotix with it or another magic formula share. I really want to increase my SBTX holding though, so hope I can stay disciplined and see through that plan. It would be a first!

The impact of the sale has been to dramatically improve my year 5 performance by £82 a month, but it's still a long way behind previous years. It hardly made any difference to the long term performance, improving by just £10 a month. I'm hoping that by increasing the number of dividend paying shares in my SIPP I'll be able to at least maintain this performance level without needing to sell as much. However, the magic formula system does rely on selling any shares that after holding for a year are no longer in the top 30 ranked companies. That gives FXPO:Ferrexpo to the end of May 2021 to re-rate enough for me to sell up. However, it it's still paying a great dividend, I might not sell.

It's nice when the cost comes down and the value goes up, although the value does include the cash.

Above the trend line, but I fear a long way to go before it flattens out.

The trading account looks like this after week 208 and indeed the end of year 4

			Weekly Change
Cash	£216.05		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,461.87	(-37.9%)	+£51.03
Potential profits	£21.84		+£21.84
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£350.66		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£30.32	(15.5%)	-£0.60
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£286.37		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£6.96	(3.6%)	-£0.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Most shares were slightly up, and JLP:Jubilee Metals are in profit, but not enough for me to sell yet. I do think these ought to re-rate to around 5p from the current 3.8p but if it looks like that might take a long time I'll sell for a smaller profit.

Year 4 finished with an average monthly profit of £30 which is absolutely brilliant considering the unmitigated disaster of the first 3 years. It's just a real shame I have 4 moribund shares and am relying on recycling the same £500 in order to make any profit. I just haven't progressed to the point where I'm willing to take a big loss in order to free up the cash. If I'd have stopped out the loss much earlier then I would have been able to re-invest in something else, but I missed that opportunity. I just need to make sure I don't make the same mistake again.

Onwards and upwards

The trend line gets a little less flat, and it's in the right direction.

The virtual magic formula portfolio had a down week, going from 14.84% to 15.02% down. There are still only 5 companies in the black. ITV:ITV, CARD:Card Factory, and VTY:Vistry Group are all down by more than 50%. I'm surprised that PAY:Paypoint is down by 41%, so am very tempted to add this to my real magic formula holding, as they pay quarterly dividends. I may end up using some of my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics cash after all. So much for discipline! It would be a "loan" until my next pension transfer comes in, although the risk is I miss a good buying price.

As for my wishes for the week, we're still waiting on that magic SweetBiotix announcement from OPTI:Optibiotix, but I suspect we'll just get more Wellbiome announcements as all the partners dealing with Slimbiome take that on as well. Although those are all good news, they are unlikely to excite the market.

FXPO:Ferrexpo did get back in the black so that one came true. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics passed 20p allowing me to sell, so that was great. I'm not anticipating a sudden drop to 16p so doubt I'll be able to buy them back next week. JLP:Jubilee Metals getting to 5p is firmly on next week's list, and one of either APAX:Apax Global Alpha or POLR:Polar Capital Holdings getting back in the black, as they are only down by a little.

My biggest concern at the moment is MTFB:Motif Bio, who only have until 28th July to make a reverse takeover acquisition. It's not looking very promising! I really don't want it going down to the wire, so my number one wish for next week is an announcement a deal has been done.