Week 284 Review - Massive crash back to reality

Well it didn't even last a week. There was a massive crash much bigger than last week's gains, and we're firmly back in the red. The combined portfolios dropped by a massive £13,451 which created a deficit of £9,739 between cost and value and reduced overall portfolio value to £119,820. Bugger!

Biggest faller was one of may main holdings CAML:Central Asia Metals. It dropped 16% and I suspect a big reason for the drop is directors either selling some of their shares or exercising options and then immediately selling. That amounted to around 800,000 shares, so was bound to impact the price.

OPTI:Optibiotix lost all last week's gains and dropped by 9p which is 14% and responsible for £11K of this week's drop. I just need to accept that OPTI is doomed to be manipulated like this until sizable profits become a regular feature.

CMCL:Caledonia Mining looked like it had started to climb but dropped 8% this week and demonstrates just how bad my timing can be. They are down 23% altogether and ruining my magic formula performance stats.

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 7%, but that's not surprising after recent rises. They were looking good for the week until an RNS on Friday which initially made me want to sell up. However it actually appears to be a cunning way of transferring a convertible loan to shares in order to pay a debt, save on interest and introduce a couple of new institutional investors with the proceeds. The fact that they also cashed in some shares paid in lieu of salary to the directors and sold them at the same time caused unease, but the institutions were willing to buy at no discount so I think if anything it strengthens the shares.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha has been gradually climbing, but this week took a 5% drop. There doesn't seem to be any reason other than a bit of an equities sell-off.

FXPO:Ferrexpo also dropped 5% which may have been because no special dividend was announced in their Q4 production update.

IES:Invinity Energy also dropped 5% for no identifiable reason.

RDT:Rosslyn Data are showing some promise, as they have a system that allows companies to process customs documentation for importing and exporting now we're out of the EU. That could take off quite dramatically. I had written these off a few years ago, but now have a little hope I may at least get my money back. They climbed 5% this week but are still 60% down.

Share of the Week is my new investment ITX:Itaconix which climbed a staggering 45% this week following a 47% increase last week, so they take the title 2 weeks in a row. I'm regretting only investing £500 now as they are already up 76%. I need to decide if these are a keeper or if I take my money and run. Given the sheer number of products their ingredient is in, there is a chance of a big re-rate, but their current finances don't look great and their liabilities far exceed their assets which is a worry. We'll see.

Yuck!

Oh the misery.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this after week 24 of year 6

			Weekly Change
Cash	£32.95		+£0
Portfolio cost	£63,009.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£56,960.15	(-9.6%)	-£6,773.55
Potential profits	£8,691.66		-£1,307.68
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£591.81		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£102.79	(3.0%)	-£4.47
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,018.42		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£337.30	(9.7%)	-£1.19
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

A devastating drop, and the big drop of JLP:Jubilee Metals hammered the potential profits. One ray of sunshine is that IQE:IQE are back in the black. They are only up by 1% and £19 potential profit, but given these were meant to be a quick win while I waited to buy more SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics over a year ago, having the potential to get back my £2,000 without loss if I need the cash is very precious.

I guess the positive news is that we're still closer to the cost line than the injection line.

We're also still well above the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 268 overall and week 8 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£4,809.68		+£0
Portfolio cost	£59,093.46		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£55,816.11	(-5.5%)	-£6,597.90
Potential profits	£5,625.87		-£1,586.49
Yr 6 Dividends	£378.23		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£2,172.89		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,363.81	(40.8%)	-£194.83
Total Dividends	£2,445.31		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,632.33		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£314.06	(9.4%)	-£1.18
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	48%		+0%

Exactly the same problem as the ISA, with all last week's profit gains gone and a big deepening of the OPTI:Optibiotix loss. The good news is that 7 of the 14 holdings are in profit.

This paints a slightly rosier picture as the green line includes cash, and in a remarkable feat of discipline I've not spent my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics pot on anything else yet, so still have £4,000 cash. Once I spend it the red line will zoom up but the green line will stay put.

This gives a better indication of the scale of the drop, but we're above the trend line which is always good.

The trading account looks like this after week 234 overall and week 26 of year 5

			Weekly Change
Cash	£249.58		-£508.74
Portfolio cost	£2,364.43		+£508.74
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,951.59	(-17.5%)	-£80.34
Potential profits	£0		-£40.39
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£631.65		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£107.31	(54.5%)	-£4.29
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£918.02		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£18.11	(9.2%)	-£0.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

I went for HUM:Hummingbird Resources with my cash pot and bought 1,567 shares at 31.895p costing £508.74. Now I'm trading more frequently I've got a £3 reduction in commission. The price hasn't really moved since I bought them, and the bid price is 31.5p so just 5% down on spread and commission. I thought gold was about to get back above £2,000 but it doesn't seem to be happening. I still think these are under priced and due for a re-rate soon.

All my CAML:Central Asia Metals potential profits vanished so I just have to hope it was a blip and we'll be back on the move again soon, as OPTI:Optibiotix has dropped enough for another go in the trading account but I need to sell something first.

The cost is back up to its normal level. I wish TALY:Tally would come out of suspension as I've been sitting on a load of cash so when I sell them I can get back up to the £2,500 line. Although my new ambition is to get to the £5,000 line when I sell the OPTI:Optibiotix in my share account. That way I get to stay well over 100,000 shares and still top slice a little profit. They just need to get back into the 70p range first though. When I do that I'll bank the BLCC:Block Commodities loss and write off the share account so that only contains my trading shares. I need to try and make £700 profit on the OPTI shares in order to write off the BLCC loss without affecting my performance stats. It would take OPTI getting to 84p to enable that. It would give me £2,500 to add to the trading account and £800 to move into my ISA.

Still well above the trend line.

I was feeling so positive after last week. I thought nothing could stop a nice gradual increase in profits, and I'd be able to put my plan into action to transfer the share account OPTI shares to my trading account to try and boost my holiday fund. All that hope lies in dust today.

Let's see what next week brings...

Week 283 Review - Combined portfolios back in the black and so is Optibiotix

What a week!

Loads of massive risers, one of which was OPTI:Optibiotix and so the deficit between cost and value was completely wiped out and the combined portfolios went into profit for the first time since April 2019.

The difference between cost and value improved by £11,442 and the portfolios are now £3,712 in profit. The total portfolio value plus cash is a record £133,271.

There was only one share that let the side down, with my new gold miner HUM:Hummingbird Resources dropping 6% to go 8% down altogether. I hope I don't regret this purchase, but it was only a £500 investment.

CMCL:Caledonia Mining have started to rise, and climbed 5% this week. They are still 15% down but I'm hoping that will be recovered as we near the dividend date.

BLU:Blue Star Capital climbed 10% probably on the coat-tails of the cryptocurrency rises. They are still 67% down so a long way to go yet.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 7p which is 11% and has gone into profit, but every time this has happened in the past we drop back to 50p before very long. Will we hold on this time? The increase accounted for around £8,750 of the overall rise this week.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is climbing relentlessly and is up by another 14% this week to go 208% up altogether and making £8,972 potential profit. All this is on no news, so when new deals are announced or production updates are issued, we could see further gains.

CAML:Central Asia Metals continues a dramatic recovery, climbing another 18% to go 47% up and making £4,844 potential profit.

FXPO:Ferrexpo also comes into the relentless climber category and is up 32% this week to go 87% up and making £882 potential profit.

Share of the Week is my new buy ITX:Itaconix, which after a 16% drop last week climbed 47% to go 31% into the black with £160 potential profit on my small holding. It feels like this company has hit an inflection point like OPTI:Optibiotix, in that their product is inside so many other products that profit is inevitable. Their production costs are a lot higher that OPTI though, so much more risk.

I needn't have done a special blog post last night - we've still blasted through the red line. What a stunning chart!

I was beginning to think I would never see the line peeking above the water

The ISA and share portfolios look like this after week 23 of year 6

			Weekly Change
Cash	£32.95		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£63,009.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£63,733.70	(1.1%)	+£5,780.73
Potential profits	£9,999.34		+£1,627.29
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£591.81		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£107.26	(3.1%)	-£5.62
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,018.42		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£338.49	(9.7%)	-£1.26
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

Nice rise into the black, with OPTI:Optibiotix returning to paper profit by £1,027 and JLP:Jubilee Metals increasing potential profit by £600. Just a few weeks ago this still seemed like a long way away. How long will it last?

Only just across the red line, but a joy to behold.

Quite a bounce off the trend line from a few weeks ago.

The SIPP looks like this after week 267 overall and week 7 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£4,809.68		+£4,523.24
Portfolio cost	£59,093.46		-£2,719.87
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£62,414.01	(5.6%)	+£5,602.16
Potential profits	£7,212.36		+£1,633.28
Yr 6 Dividends	£378.23		+£17.73
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£2,172.89		+£1,802.30
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,558.64	(46.7%)	+£1,042.67
Total Dividends	£2,445.31		+£17.73
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,632.33		+£1,802.30
Average monthly cash profit	£315.24	(9.4%)	+£28.19
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	48%		+4%

There's a lot going on here!

I sold just under half my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics holding yesterday because it went past the point where it usually drops. When it climbed to 31p today I felt it had gone way past where it should be and sold the rest. That decision cost me £150 as the price continued up to 33.5p. I think that's crazy for a company that hasn't got revenues for some time yet, no matter how much I love them. I ended up making £1,802.30 profit and liberated £4,522 which I am determined to hold for when they drop back below 20p.

Knowing my luck they will soar to 100p now. It doesn't matter, I own them by proxy from the OPTI:Optibiotix stake. SBTX is the one share that I am willing to actively trade and risk not being in when they take off properly. Doing so has made me £5,345 profit so far. You could argue I'd lose more than that by not being invested when they re-rate, but it's a risk I'm prepared to take due to my OPTI holding.

There was a £17 dividend from POLR:Polar Capital Holdings this week, somewhat lost amongst everything else.

Potential profits went up despite cashing in SBTX, annual projected performance is crazy, but it expects the first 7 weeks to continue for the rest of the year. If I don't sell anything else for the next 45 weeks then I would end up with 6.3% for this year, which isn't bad. Overall performance was boosted to 9.4%, and now that's measured against injection amount it won't plummet when I re-invest my profits.

Spectacular.

The dark days of April seem a long way away.

The trading account looks like this after week 233 overall and week 25 of year 5

			Weekly Change
Cash	£758.32		+£517.47
Portfolio cost	£1,855.69		-£511.72
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,523.19	(-17.9%)	+£59.32
Potential profits	£40.39		+£40.39
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£631.65		+£65.74
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£111.60	(72.2%)	+£7.22
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£918.02		+£65.74
Average monthly cash profit	£18.19	(11.8%)	+£1.15
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

I sold my OPTI:Optibiotix trading shares for £65.74 (12.6%) profit. I have to admit I got scared because OPTI always drops after getting to break even in my main portfolio. I wasn't wrong as it did drop off a bit after I sold these. I also removed £60 to my bank account for my Madagascar holiday fund, which is why cash is only up just over £500.

Taking into account the sale, the rest f the portfolio gained £59 this week, and CAML:Central Asia Metals went into profit and I may be able to sell them next week. They are on quite a steady rise though, so I may hold a bit longer. Anything over £50 should be seen as a good profit in this account.

Long term performance is spectacular now, with 11.8% over four and a half years really good going. If I can keep up the year 5 performance of over £100 a month over the first six months I'll be very happy.

Note that the green line includes cash, so that will not go up next week when the red line bounces back by £500 when I re-invest the cash. The injection line is dropping beautifully as I take more out.

This is a much more meaningful chart as it sees through all the buying and selling and shows the difference between stock cost and value. Another small tick up despite profit taking, and the trend line is getting steeper upwards.

Here's my wish list:

1. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM and the fine chrome plant move is completed and operation. Still nothing, but still the shares climb in value.
   
2. OPTI:Optibiotix Health to get back in profit. Yes! This one can now change to OPTI stays in profit. Some chance!.
3. CMCL:Caledonia Mining reverses the down trend and gets back into profit. A good 5% increase is moving this in the right direction.
   
4. The combined portfolios get back into the black. Yes!

I may abandon the wishes now, as I only have 2 left and they may struggle on for a long time.

One of the best weeks ever, and green all over my spreadsheet. If you add up potential profit and cash it comes to £22,853 which is wonderful. I feel nervous being out of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, but I have a plan and I'm trying to stick to it without letting emotion get in the way. If SBTX does soar, then I should look at it as an opportunity to spend the cash on 4 new magic formula shares instead, as they are proving themselves to be pretty great. Also, if this happens then OPTI:Optibiotix will benefit and I'll be quids in anyway, so I shouldn't fret or wish SBTX drops back below 20p. Well, maybe just a little bit...

Portfolio back in the black for the first time in 19 months!

I had to write something today because it might not last through tomorrow and I want to celebrate. After 19 months, my combined portfolio has broken through the red line and is in profit for the first time since 5th April 2019.

It's been a great few weeks, but today went ballistic, and not only did the combined portfolio go into profit, but OPTI:Optibiotix went into profit too.

Look at that! The green line didn't nudge past the red line gingerly - it blasted a whacking great hole through it.

Last time this happened it didn't survive to the end of the week snapshot, so I wanted a record that it actually happened.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 14.9% today and is up by about £650 across all my holdings, which is around 0.8% after 5 years, but hopefully this is just the start.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics had an even better day, climbing 29.8%, and I have to admit I sold almost half my holdings as I didn't think it would last. I sold 7,500 shares at 26.12p and made £658.08 (50.5%) profit. I liberated £1,950.05 and I am determined to be disciplined and hold onto it so I can buy more SBTX when it dips lower again, which it nearly always does. If it doesn't then I still have half my holding and I can play with the cash on something else. I always consider my SBTX holding as a bonus, as I hold so many virtually via OPTI:Optibiotix.

Lots of other shares performing today. JLP:Jubilee Metals up 3% and now my holding is up 210% and making £9,072 potential profit.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is up 5.9% today and 46% up overall, making £4,732 potential profit along with the £1,822 dividends received.

My remining holding in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is still up 55% and making £782 potential profit.

FXPO:Ferrexpo is going mad and up another 2.9% today to go 89% up altogether with £906 potential profit, £65 in dividends so far and a special dividend on the way.

I've had precious few days like this over the last 5 years, so I'm going to make the most of it, as it may not last very long...

Week 282 Review - Superb end to a traumatic year

I was really hoping we wouldn't have a down week at the end of 2020, although it would have probably summed up the year quite well. I needn't have worried, as the final week, despite being very short, was absolutely brilliant.

I went a bit mad too, and cashed in some profits to buy into new things, as well as taking more profits from the trading account.

Fortunately OPTI:Optibiotix Health had a rally over the last few days which accounted for much of this week's rise, but JLP:Jubilee Metals and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics also played a big part.

The result was a narrowing of the deficit between cost and value of £12,735, so that deficit now stands at a relatively small £7,729 and the overall portfolio value has hit another milestone, standing at £120,024. That's a very nice way to end the year as it's the highest ever portfolio value. Granted I've added another £30k since my previous record valuation so I have cheated slightly in achieving the record.

Worst performer was a new share ITX:Itaconix which I dipped a little toe in with some SIPP profits to buy 16,297 shares at 3.068p costing £511.94. I like to put a small marker down so I start to follow the story more closely. If I like what I see I may add, else I ditch them. These have a wide spread and dropped a little after I bought them, so they are 16% down already.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been doing amazingly well recently, but this week they dropped 7%. I suspect a little profit taking and nerves over a blip in the iron ore price. I'm still hoping for a special dividend in January.

My only other big loser was DDDD:4D Pharma which I'm back in now. One of the holdings is my trading account, so the small amount and commission meant that ended the week 7% down on when I bought it. The larger new SIPP holding only dropped 4%.

IES:Invinity Energy has been on a bit of a roll as more contracts are announced. It climbed another 5% this week and is only 55% down now. There may yet be hope of salvaging something from the RED:RedT Energy mess.

OPTI:Optibiotix had a spurt in the last 2 days and climbed 8p which is 13% and accounts for £10k of this week's rise. Could 2021 be the year when this finally takes off?

TRX:Tissue Regenix has climbed a little, but it's showing a 20% improvement. That's because I decided that now the Woodford holding has been mostly sold off, and all the people that panicked have finished selling, this is looking like a reasonable recovery play. I was stuck with an average purchase price of 18p, so this was going to be showing a loss for a long time. I took fairly drastic action and bought 90,594 shares at 0.5464p costing £506.96. That brought my average price down from 18p to 2.26p. I think there's a much better chance of that getting into profit than if I'd kept just the 18p holding. Once Covid settles down and operations start happening again, demand for their products will be high, and although everything went wrong for Woodford, you could argue that his investors just got impatient.

JLP:Jubilee Metals would normally get Share of the Week for a 30% increase, as the meteoric rise continues. I'm expecting a trace back to 12p from today's 12.7p until next news, but I'm hanging onto these long term now as there's so much in the pipeline that it's too dangerous to trade. My holding is now 194% up and making £8,372 potential profit. Happy days.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which climbed 40% from a 14% loss to a 26% profit. I treated them quite badly and sold all my trading shares and 30% of my SIPP shares for a small profit to fund my purchases mentioned above. I'm not very good at being disciplined with my SBTX trading, as the reason for it is meant to be so I can buy more on dips, but I keep spending all the proceeds. I still have 15,581 shares though, and they are currently making £696 potential profit.

A joy to behold. The nearest to break-even for over a year, and a stunning recovery from the Covid crash.

What a difference a week makes!

Here's the ISA and share portfolios after week 22 of year 6

			Weekly Change
Cash	£36.70		+£0
Portfolio cost	£63,009.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£57,952.97	(-8.0%)	+£7,206.02
Potential profits	£8,372.05		+£1,300.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£591.81		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£112.88	(3.2%)	-£5.37
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,018.42		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£339.75	(9.8%)	-£1.21
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

Not much activity in this account compared to the others, but JLP:Jubilee Metals put on a 1.3p spurt worth £1,300 and most of the rest of the £7,206 improvement is OPTI:Optibiotix Health narrowing losses.

Still quite a deficit to make up on this one. I'm hoping that IQE:IQE will get to 100p as that will give me £700 profit, which will be enough to write off BLCC:Block Commodities from my portfolio without leaving a big hole in performance. I really want to write off these no-hope shares so I don't have to go through the admin of updating them or even looking at the horrible worthless things.

The gap to make up is just £5,000 and we'll cross the fabled £0 line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 266 overall and week 6 of year 6

			Weekly Change
Cash	£286.44		-£182.45
Portfolio cost	£61,813.33		+£854.42
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£59,531.72	(-3.7%)	+£5,414.03
Potential profits	£5,579.08		+£595.53
Yr 6 Dividends	£360.50		+£13.88
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£370.59		+£370.59
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£515.97	(15.4%)	+£230.00
Total Dividends	£2,427.58		+£13.88
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£15,830.03		+£370.59
Average monthly cash profit	£287.05	(8.6%)	+£5.21
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	44%		+1%

OK - there's a lot going on here so I'll document events chronologically.

First I decided I wanted to buy something with my CAML:Central Asia Metals dividend, but it wasn't quite enough so I added £150. I wanted more gold, and have been watching HUM:Hummingbird Resources for years. They are high risk because of the territory where they operate in Mali and Liberia, but they have been there for over 10 years and are climbing back towards the 40p they were trading at during the summer. I bought 1,538 shares at 32.5p costing £511.50 and I think of them as mostly free as they came (nearly) from the CAML dividend. I doubt I'll hold them long, and will probably re-invest in CAML after selling.

I've discussed the next event near the top of the blog when I massively increased my TRX:Tissue Regenix holding. I got the cash for that by selling 216 CAML:Central Asia Metals shares to liberate £517.59 and make £121.63 (29.8%) profit. It was a bit naughty as I don't want to reduce CAML, but I saw an opportunity to salvage something from my TRX investment and took it.

Next was my naughty top-slice of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. I sold 7,500 shares at 20.705p after paying 17.22p and made £248.96 (19%) profit. This liberated £1,540 which I needed to get back into DDDD:4D Pharma before their Nasdaq listing and the small toe-dip in ITX:Itaconix I described near the start of the blog. 

I bought 769 shares in DDDD:4D Pharma at 130p costing £1,011.65. They did drop back a few pence so I'm down 4% but wanted to be in for the January ride as it could get thrilling and I desperately wanted to keep a long-term holding in this one after my opportunistic profit-taking a few months ago when I made a nice £2,258 profit. This time I want to hold them for the whole adventure.

The the re-investing of dividend, injection and profits caused the cost to go up by £845, but cash went down less thanks to £137.50 tax rebate in my AJ Bell SIPP account. Profits increased by £595 despite the sells and overall value got a big boost from OPTI:Optibiotix Health. Annual performance looks flattering, but it's projected based on the first 6 weeks so won't last, and long term performance ticked up by 0.1% to 8.6%.

We're so, so close to that cost line now.

About £2,200 to make up. Another week like this, or even half as good as this will do the trick.

The trading account looks like this after week 232 overall and week 24 of year 5

			Weekly Change
Cash	£240.85		-£1.05
Portfolio cost	£2,367.41		-£0.14
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,975.59	(-16.6%)	+£115.33
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£565.91		+£98.81
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£104.38	(52.9%)	+£14.08
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£852.28		+£98.81
Average monthly cash profit	£17.04	(8.6%)	+£1.78
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

I sold my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares at 20.55p making £98.91 (18.8%) profit and liberated another £100 back to my bank account. I'm now trading with a purpose as I'm planning a trip to Madagascar next year and this can contribute to my holiday fund. The sooner my share account OPTI:Optibiotix holding gets into profit the sooner I can transfer that into this pot. as my plan is to at least double up the amount available so there's more chance I can trade something every week.

I re-invested the £500 in DDDD:4D Pharma, buying 383 shares at 130.5p, which are 7% down. However, CAML:Central Asia Metals is only 5% down and OPTI:Optibiotix is only 1% down, so it's possible I will have 3 active pots. I may even use one profit to write off my IQE:IQE loss as it will take them ages to break even and I could be using the pot for something else.

The dip from a few weeks ago is fixed, and the orange line continues to drop. I don't expect this account to ever have the chance to cross the red line.

That will do nicely. an increase despite cashing in £98 profit is great.

Here's my wish list:

1. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM and the fine chrome plant move is completed and operation. Nope, but I'm getting beyond caring.
   
2. OPTI:Optibiotix Health to get within 10% of profit. Yes! This one can now be upgraded to getting back into profit.
3. CMCL:Caledonia Mining reverses the down trend and gets back into profit. Down again this week. I'm really surprised. Good job this is a long term holding, but it's letting down my magic formula shares badly.
   
4.  SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics gets back into profit. Yes! I can't think of any more wishes for this one yet. I need to work out how to get my 7,500 shares back that I sold. This wish is now retired as complete.
5. The combined portfolios get back into the black. This one is getting close now - will it come true next week or will there be a post-Brexit slump?

2020 has been a very trying year, but the portfolio is in a much better place at the end than it was at the beginning, despite the terrifying crash in March. The big winner in 2020 has been the magic formula trial, with all but one of the shares in profit, and over £2,000 potential profit based on £6,000 investment, and over £200 in dividends. I'm happy this is a great way to pick shares and look forward to February or March when I get my next £2,000 pension transfer to pick another 2, and really looking forward to June when I can start selling the ones I bought last year and realising the profits.

Here's to 2021 where some of my shares could get a chance to really shine.

Week 281 Review - Christmas grinched by Optibiotix dip

Although I'm moaning about being down £600 at the end of the week thanks to a 1p drop for OPTI:Optibiotix Health today, it was looking a lot worse early in the week when I was down £5K. The deficit between cost and value has widened to £20,465 and overall portfolio value dropped to £106,617.

There were no big losers this week, but the winners weren't enough to make up for the deficit from a few big shares losing small amounts.

PAY:Paypoint have been one of the more sluggish magic formula shares, but climbed 5% this week to go up by 11% overall. There are a few potential clouds still over this one, but they are making good profits so I remain hopeful they will continue to rise up to my review date in July 2021.

RDT:Rosslyn Data announced a few contract wins, and it looks like their new software for processing customs forms could be a winner. I'm surprised the shares only climbed 5%. It still leaves them down by 65% in my portfolio.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy also rose by 5%. I still worry about these and wouldn't buy them now, but I hold in hope.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been really motoring lately, possibly in anticipation of a January special dividend, and this week they went up 7% to go 62% up overall and making £632 potential profit.

Share of the Week also rose 7%, but I like CAML:Central Asia Metals more, and their rise was worth a lot more thanks to my big holding. These are now 28% up and making £3,041 potential profit. I won't be selling these though. They are a keeper for the epic dividend.

More flatness

The rise seems to have faltered.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios after week 21 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£36.70		-£19.25
Portfolio cost	£63,009.29		+£19.25
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£50,746.95	(-19.5%)	-£894.46
Potential profits	£7,072.05		-£200.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£591.81		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£118.25	(3.4%)	-£5.91
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,018.42		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£340.96	(9.8%)	-£1.22
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

Cash went down by £19 as I was allowed to get 11 IES:Invinity Energy shares in the open offer, which is half what I applied for as it was over subscribed. Much better than the 3 I was allocated though. Potential profits are down £200 after JLP:Jubilee Metals lost 0.2p, but given last week's 34% rise I'm amazed the profit takers didn't do more damage. Value is down by a further £694 courtesy of OPTI:Optibiotix Health losing 1p.

I've finally given up on the statistic of monthly performance compared to cost of portfolio. I've decided it's a pointless stat that's going to get harder to live up to as the cost rises and profits are re-invested. I'm now focusing entirely on the performance compared to the injection amount, as that's what I've put into the pot, and what would have been invested in something else. That's still showing I'm way behind 10% target in year 6 when we're almost at the halfway point, but doing ok long-term.

Nasty little dip.

Getting a bit close to the trend line, but still the right side.

Here's the SIPP after week 265 overall and week 5 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£468.89		+£0
Portfolio cost	£60,958.91		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£53,263.27	(-12.6%)	+£289.92
Potential profits	£4,983.55		+£921.87
Yr 6 Dividends	£346.62		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£285.97	(8.6%)	-£71.49
Total Dividends	£2,413.70		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£15,459.44		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£281.84	(8.5%)	-£1.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	43%		+0%

This account improved in value thanks to a socking great £921 increase in potential profits from the likes of CAML:Central Asia Metals and FXPO:Ferrexpo. That made up for the OPTI:Optibiotix Health drop and a bit more. Year 6 performance is still a bit mad as the amount is based on the projection of what we've had in the first 5 weeks, which included the huge CAML dividend. Long term performance still needs a boost, and the only thing that can provide that is if I trade SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. In May we'll get a much bigger boost as I start reviewing and selling the magic formula shares.

The increase was so small it looks flat

Still unable to get into that buffer zone.

Here's the trading portfolio after week 231 overall and week 23 of year 5

			Weekly Change
Cash	£241.90		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,367.55		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,860.26	(-21.4%)	+£3.55
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£467.10		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£90.30	(45.8%)	-£4.10
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£753.47		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£15.26	(7.7%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Couldn't get much more flat really. This one will carry on monitoring performance based on cost, as the cost will never go above around £2,500 unless new £500 increments are made. Key thing is that three of the five stocks are in a position where I may be able to sell them soon, so things could start getting exciting.

I like this chart!

The steep slope is getting steeper.

Here's my wish list:

1. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM and the fine chrome plant move is completed and operation. I'm staggered this hasn't been announced yet, but still we wait.
   
2. OPTI:Optibiotix Health to get within 10% of profit. Second week in a row it has dropped by a penny.
3. CMCL:Caledonia Mining reverses the down trend and gets back into profit. Flat this week. At least it's not a drop. The spread has been stupidly high for a share that also trades on NY Stock Exchange.
   
4.  SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics gets back into profit. Still falling. Terribly frustrating, but can't go on forever.
5. The combined portfolios get back into the black. A blip downwards this week, but there's some good progress and don't forget I'm sitting on £12,000 un-banked profits at the moment.Normally I'd be cashing these in, but not this time. I'm determined to let them ride.
   

Week 280 Review - A flat week but Jubilee Metals continues to soar

This week was the flattest I can remember for a long time, with some great rises counter-acted by a 1p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix Health which spoiled the Christmas cheer. At least it was another up week, gaining £200 and narrowing the deficit between cost and value to £19,864.28, with total value plus cash at £107,218.

Although OPTI:Optibiotix Health only dropped 1p, I bought some in my trading account when they were up on the week, so they ended up down 13% compared to my main holding only dropping 2%. My first attempt to trade OPTI has started very badly.

All good news from there, with APAX:Apax Global Alpha continuing the great form of the magic formula shares climbing 11% to go 32% up altogether and making £319 potential profit. These are due for review in June 2021 and have also paid £33 dividend. I'm thinking I should trash everything else I do and stick to the magic formula!

ITV:ITV are another magic formula share and climbed 14% this week to go an amazing 50% up and making £509 potential profit. If these would just re-instate the dividend I'll be very happy, as without a dividend they wouldn't have qualified for my magic formula list. I was ranking them on last year's dividend.

JLP:Jubilee Metals recovered from last week's profit taking and soared 32% to win Share of the Week. They are now up 168% and making £7,272 potential profit. I must stay strong and hold them!

That illustrates flatness quite well.

I just can't seem to narrow that loss below £20K. It's like a big impenetrable buffer.

The ISA and share accounts look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£55.95		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,990.04		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£51,622.16	(-18.0%)	+£568.06
Potential profits	£7,272.05		+£1,400.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£591.81		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£124.16	(2.4%)	-£6.54
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,018.42		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£342.18	(6.5%)	-£1.22
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	9.8%		-0.1%
Compound performance	53%		+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals potential profits are up by a staggering £1,400 but that's savaged by the drop in OPTI:Optibiotix Health to a more modest £568 increase. Long term performance drops another 0.1% to go 0.2% below target.

The rise is hardly visible

Still dragging the trend line higher

The SIPP looks like this after week 264

			Weekly Change
Cash	£468.89		+£0
Portfolio cost	£60,958.91		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£52,973.35	(-13.1%)	-£259.15
Potential profits	£4,061.68		+£319.41
Yr 6 Dividends	£346.62		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£357.46	(7.0%)	-£119.15
Total Dividends	£2,413.70		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£15,459.44		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£282.91	(5.6%)	-£1.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.5%		+0%
Compound performance	43%		+0%

Nice increase in potential profit of £319 among the magic formula shares, but CAML:Central Asia Metals was completely flat, so the drop in OPTI:Optibiotix Health meant a loss of £259 for the week. Year 6 performance is being dragged back to reality after a crazy start caused by the big CAML dividend.

Still quite close to that red line!

Again there's that impenetrable buffer

The trading account looks like this after week 230

			Weekly Change
Cash	£241.90		-£6.46
Portfolio cost	£2,367.55		+£13.44
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,856.71	(-21.6%)	-£108.64
Potential profits	£0		-£39.12
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£467.10		+£96.98
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£94.90	(47.8%)	+£15.51
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£753.47		+£96.98
Average monthly cash profit	£15.33	(7.8%)	+£1.77
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

I sold my 168 shares in TRMR:Tremor for 361.44p after buying them for 289.49p making a profit of £96.98 (19%). They ended the week at 330p so for once my timing was OK. I re-invested in OPTI:Optibiotix Health thinking there's no way they are going lower than 55p so let's try trading them. By the end of today I could have bought them for 52p but instead I bought 912 at 54.8p costing £511.73. They dropped 13% in a day when you include spread and commission.

My year 5 performance is looking amazing at 47% when we're only half way through the year. If I don't sell anything for the next 6 months I'll still end up with profits of 20%. My long term performance improved by just £1.77, but it is now 7.8%, which although below target is quite good.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is only 11% down now and has some strong upward momentum, and we know how fast both SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and OPTI:Optibiotix Health can climb when they want to, and both of these were bought very cheap despite being down at the moment.

A big dip, but that's what you get when you take profits. The injection line also dips as I removed £90 into my bank account for a fine malt whisky at Christmas.

A steep drop as we see the effect of both profit taking and OPTI:Optibiotix Health's big fall, but the trend line is still steepening upwards.

Here's my wish list:

1. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. I'm going to remove this wish, as there was an update today which spoke of progress but also delays. Gas is flowing, but de-watering will not resume until more wells are dug. That's going to be some time so I don't want to keep wishing every week when I know it's not coming any time soon.
   
2. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM and the fine chrome plant move is completed and operational. Incredibly there's still no news, but the share price continues to rise so it's a bit academic. I'm still keeping the wish as it should be very soon.
   
3. OPTI:Optibiotix to get within 10% of profit. Still possible before Christmas but increasingly unlikely without news..
4. CMCL:Caledonia Mining reverses the down trend and gets back into profit. They were up a little this week, but I expected more after news of 2 exploration deals. I really don't understand this big drop, but I'm convinced the turn around is very close.
   
5.  SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics gets back into profit. Nope, still falling which is very disappointing as I thought it could get back to 20p.
6. The combined portfolios get back into the black. Going n the right direction, but £200 a week is going to take a very long time..