Monday, 29 February 2016

Glencore tension mounts

The tension is almost too much to bear. A 3.9% rise in GLEN:Glencore today has taken my holding to within £19.24 of being in profit. I've got such a massively differing pair of purchases in 2 accounts. One is 24% down after paying 174p for 900 shares, while the other is 45% up after buying 1,000 for 91.8p. That leaves one losing £407.53 and one in profit by £388.28.

Results for the year are out tomorrow - will the price rises over the last few days have already factored in the expected results, or will there be a jump tomorrow - or a crash tomorrow? Should I sell my in-profit shares and bank the £388 or hang on until I at least break even, as the profit shares are climbing faster than the losses are coming off the loss-making shares? Should I hold them long term? Can the price be sustained? Have we gone past the bottom of the commodity rout?

I should just hide the keyboard for the day and wait to see what happens. It takes the Glencore roller coaster on a new section of track after six months of rampant misery. I'm seriously torn between getting out while the going is good and I've not lost any money, or continuing with the thrill of the ride.

Meanwhile the mystery rise in RCI:Rapidcloud continues, with a 20.9% increase today, meaning my losses are reduced to £190.50. There's still been no news to back up the price rise, so this is another to watch with interest tomorrow.

AFPO:African Potash also climbed mysteriously on no news today, gaining 12.3% on the share price, but unfortunately the spread is 9% and the bid price didn't change much so I didn't see such a big rise on my stats.

Disappointing news from UTV:UTV Media today. I've been waiting for a gigantic dividend after they sold Ulster TV to ITV, but we're getting quite a puny cash dividend, with the rest coming as a "B share scheme". I haven't really got a clue what that means, so will just watch and see what happens. Given the share price dropped by 4.3% suggests that the news wasn't overly popular. The new company name is WLG:Wireless Group from tomorrow.

Altogether rather an interesting week...

Sunday, 28 February 2016

Week 29 Review

Things seemed to go rather well this week. Biggest riser was RCI:Rapidcoud, with a 38% rise halving my paper losses. I'm definitely not complaining, but normally on that sort of increase you'd expect something to either say "we don't know why it's happened" or some news that would justify it. LLOY:Lloyds Bank is up 15% after decent results, AA:Alcoa surged 14% and is almost in profit and GLEN:Glencore ended up 11% higher but still not quite in profit. Maybe results in the coming week will rectify that - or will they? No double digit losses this week, with DOTD:Dotdigital being the worst performer, losing 8% despite rising profits on the first half. Maybe now is the time to top up!

With new money in, sales, and transfers from one account to another, it will take a bit of effort to decipher the summary.



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £34,427.40
-£546.97
Portfolio value (share price) £32,718.60 (-£1,498.49) +£846.47
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £31,546.02 (-£2,881.39) +£919.69
Potential profits £1,886.02
+£299.09
Dividends £366.79
+£0
Profit from sales £1,177.44
+£113.23
Average monthly cash profit £225.09
+£9.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 8%

The portfolio cost reduced by £546.97, which was the cost of the SHG:Shanta Gold shares that I sold, then transferred the cash into my SIPP.

Another great week, with the portfolio sell value going up by around £900 following last week's £1,000 gains. The paper loss is really coming down now, but I'm still a fair way from pre-Christmas when it almost fell bellow a £2,000 loss on the sell value.

Best share for potential profits is GVC:GVC Holdings, which is up at £510.12 profit but has a long way to go yet. Next best is TSG:Trans Siberian Gold on £422.41 then TON:Titon Holdings on £388.61.

No dividends this week, and the sales profit goes up by what I made selling SHG:Shanta Gold. This lifts the average monthly profit by £9.48 and the % return on portfolio cost goes up to 8%, but that's against a slightly smaller portfolio cost.

The SIPP looks like this



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £8,951.94
+£1,784.89
Portfolio value (share price) £8,987.50 (+£35.56) +£120.81
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £8,809.47 (-£142.47) +£97.75
Potential profits £230.59
-£25.57
Dividends £0
+£0
Profit from sales £500.25
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £165.68
-£13.81
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 22.21%

Lots of addition to the portfolio cost from the tax money and sales of Shanta Gold. Getting close to my target of £10,000 so must keep the discipline of waiting to transfer the money from my share account next time I sell something, instead of getting distracted by a shiny new share.

Potential profits dropped a little, but four of the shares are now in profit. HGM:Highland Gold is best with £119.10 then LLOY:LLoyds which is now in profit of £55.96.

Still no dividends, and no sales this week. Monthly profit has dropped as a result, and the % return of portfolio cost has dropped by 8% but that's partly because of the increase in portfolio cost, and 22% is still bonkers.

So, two brilliant weeks on the trot - can next week come anywhere close? Tuesday is an important day with GLEN:Glencore and TW.:Taylor Wimpey giving their annual results. Hope it will be good news and enough to take them both into profit. There's also the mystery of the RCI:Rapidcloud surge in share price - will there be any news or explanation?...

Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Powerplay

Last night I was giving serious thought to my holdings in SHG:Shanta Gold. They climbed well at the start of the gold rally, but have faltered lately as other gold shares continue to rise. I decided that as these do not pay dividends, and as they are a very small company who will need to raise more cash to develop, taking a 20.2% profit would be my best bet. I sold them this morning making a profit of £113.23.

Over the weekend I had already worked out what my new shares would be when I next had some cash. I have been looking at VEC:Vectura which is a pharma company specialising in respiratory conditions. This is a massive market and they appear to be well placed to make lots of profits in the not too distant future.

However, last night I found something else that excited me so much I have changed course. I ended up with £760 in my standard share account, but wanted to add more to my SIPP. As I can't do that until after the settlement date, I added £760 from my bank account, then next week will replace that with the £760 from my share account when I can withdraw it. I purchased 13,471 shares of CWR:Ceres Power Holdings at 5.59p costing £764.98.

Ceres have developed a steel fuel cell. It's basically a plate of steel with holes in it, then they print a layer of ceramic onto it. When heat is applied to one side of the cell, it produces electricity. The plan is that you pack a load of these together and then heat them, say with gas, and it's a very efficient way of producing electricity. A house could produce most of its power and hot water with just 100 fuel cells in a pack. You can just scale up the number of packs to produce more electricity.

They are teamed up with Honda to help fund the research, and British Gas is another of their partners. They can produce a fuel cell every three seconds and then work with their partners to embed them in their products. It's a bit like a micro-chip company supplying tech companies. Ceres have the Intellectual Property rights to the technology too.

They are just in a position to start properly commercialising this technology, so although they have been making a loss for years, that looks set to change. They have no debt, which is also a great benefit. Their interim report is due on Friday, which should make interesting reading.

This does increase my exposure to loss-making penny shares, which I vowed I would cap at 20%, but I want to be a part of this one - it's gripped me like no other share I've seen for a long time.

The movement of money in and out of accounts will confuse the review at the end of the week. Meanwhile it's been a 2nd consecutive bad day today, with more shares down than up as the FTSE 100 slides back well below 6,000. GLEN:Glencore have wiped out all the lovely gains from Monday so are back at £346 loss after coming so close to profit. Deeply upsetting, but not altogether unexpected. The ray of sunshine was TSG:Trans Siberian Gold which climbed another 8.4% and are now up by 123% making £465 profit. Relieved to say that SHG:Shanta Gold didn't move a muscle today, so still happy that I sold them. Let's see if things settle down a bit over the next few days...


Tuesday, 23 February 2016

Fastnet Equity intrigue and another Woohoo!

Yesterday there was much excitement when FAST:Fastnet Equity suspended its shares from the market after announcing talks for a reverse takeover of Amryt Pharmaceuticals. I only purchased a small stakeholding in Fastnet. 14,695 shares costing £405, but it's exciting to imagine how they might perform.

The new company will be chaired by Harry Stratford who founded Shire Pharmaceuticals. They trade at 3,810p a share. I'm not saying there's any chance the new company will trade for that even in the next 20 years, but it's fun to note that if they did, my £405 would be worth £559,450. It's nice to dream.

When the shares re-list, I'm hoping they will at least start off at more than the 2.7p I paid.

Amryt will use the funds to buy existing Pharma companies that specialise in treating rare skin diseases. Not exactly a mass market, but hopefully they will look at treating common skin diseases too.

Meanwhile I can do another "Woohoo!" as I spent my tax rebate this morning and ticked the total portfolio cost over £43,000.

I decided not to buy any new shares, but instead to top up one of my existing shares, but which one? I wanted to buy one that's good value, so that pushed me towards the ones that are making a loss from when I first purchased them. LLOY:Lloyds were an option, but banks are a little precarious at the moment so I decided to pass. AA:Alcoa are almost back to profit, but you don't get many shares for £1,000 so I decided against that. ASHM:Ashmore Group were a possibility. They pay a great dividend and are 8% down on when I bought them.

However, in the end I went for CAML:Central Asia Metals. These also pay a great dividend and have a cheap way of producing copper from mine waste. They are making a profit, are about to increase production and get involved in a new project in Chile, and have enough cash to buy something else, but are waiting for a project that fits their low cost model. I bought 693 shares at 145.4449p costing £1,019.88. They sneaked up 0.2% today so altogether I'm 5% down and losing £118.27 on my total of 1351 shares. I should get over £100 dividend in June which will be nice.

Meanwhile I won't be able to open my bottle of beer tonight, as GLEN:Glencore slipped 2.2% today and extended the loss to £97 rather than going into profit. Maybe tomorrow...

Monday, 22 February 2016

Glencore - so close to profit!

It's almost too much to believe. After an 11.8% surge today, GLEN:Glencore is only £43.94 away from being in profit. It was just weeks ago that I was reporting a £1,100 loss.

I have the beer on standby for tomorrow

Can the price of copper stay up? Can the profit-takers resist selling everything? Can my nerve hold out with the ISA shares on a £375 (44%) profit?

Talk about a roller-coaster share. I'm just glad I took the seemingly crazy move of buying another great chunk at 91p to offset the 174p disaster.

The big question is whether this is sustainable. I hope so, as I don't plan to sell. I feel I deserve a decent return on these given the stress they've caused over the last six months.

Meanwhile, AA:Alcoa is also going bonkers today, with a 12.5% increase so far meaning it's only losing £33.81. That's another share that's never been in profit.

As per usual, it's not all sunshine and smiles. My house builders have all been hammered and dropped by about 4% and the gold mines are all down too. The net effect is a £200 gain on the portfolio value, which is pretty good.

The tax arrived in my SIPP today, so I've added anouther £100 from my bank account to take it up to a round £1,000. Some shopping tomorrow, and then I'll be able to do another "woohoo!"

Friday, 19 February 2016

Week 28 Review

The week started wonderfully, but tailed off a bit at the end. Double-digit losers this week were AFG:Aquatic Food down 14%, APC:APC Technology down 20%, and SHG:Shanta Gold down 11%. There were some double-digit risers to balance them out, with GLEN:Glencore up 17%, JLP:Jubilee Platinum up 14%, SXX:Sirrius Minerals up 15% and TSG:Trans Siberian Gold up 10% on last week.

Was the performance early in the week enough to reduce the impact of the dip?




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £34,974.37
+£0
Portfolio value (share price) £32,419.10 (-£2,344.96) +£1,123.78
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £31,173.30 (-£3,801.08) +£1,014.26
Potential profits £1,586.93
+£481.25
Dividends £366.79
+£42.00
Profit from sales £1,064.21
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £215.61
-£1.24
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 7.4%

I wish it would look this good every week.

No new purchases this week, but the big headline is the increase in portfolio value of over £1,000, significantly reducing the paper losses. Given the FTSE 100 ended up still below 6,000 at the end of the week, it suggests there is still plenty of recovery room without needing a spectacular rise in the market.

Potential profits went up by a healthy £481. Much of this was GLEN:Glencore going into £235 profit on my latter purchase in my ISA, so it's a little misleading as I'm using that to offset the £545 losses on my earlier purchases in my standard acount. TSG:Trans Siberian Gold has climbed again and is sitting at £422.41 profit. I'm glad I held onto these, as I did have a limit sell order in, but the price dipped below it when the markets opened and I cancelled the order. I was concerned gold would plummet as the rest of the market picked up so strongly, and couldn't bear to lose 100% profit, but they now stand at 115% profit and I'm holding on.

The £42 dividend came from TON:Titon Holdings which is one of my favourite shares. It's dipped a little from recent highs but is still showing a 20% profit, plus a bit more with the dividend.

The dividend has allowed my average monthly profit to drop by only £1.24 and stay over £200 with over 7% projected annual yield. I wonder where next week's £40 will come from to keep this going?

Here's the SIPP review



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £7,167.05
+£1,001.94
Portfolio value (share price) £7,081.80 (-£85.25) +£300.64
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £6,926.83 (-£240.22) +£246.88
Potential profits £256.16
+£122.06
Dividends £0
+£0
Profit from sales £500.25
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £179.49
-£16.32
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 30.05%

The extra £1,000 added to the portfolio cost was from my premium bonds and had an instant benefit, with the JLP:Jubilee Platinum shares up 15% in a week and standing at £117 profit. This has helped offset the poor performance of AA:Alcoa towards the end of the week and the fact both SLI:Standard Life Property Investment and UTW:Utilitywise have slipped back into loss, albeit just commission.

The paper losses have halved this week, so just need a repeat of that and we'll be in much better shape. In theory my pension is the account that can afford to be in loss as it's so long until I can withdraw anything from it, but it somehow feels worse having this showing a loss compared to my other accounts.

No dividends or sales this week, so the average monthly performance has dropped off a bit, but given the portfolio cost has gone up, having a projected annual yield from sales and dividends still over 30% is pleasing. It will drop again next week when the tax rebate arrives. At that point I'll be less than £2,000 away from my target of getting £10,000 in my SIPP.


So it's been a good week. I'm almost afraid to see what the next big scare will be to send everything crashing down again. Every time things start to look more relaxed, pandemonium breaks out and any hope of getting into paper profit drains away. It's got to go into the black at some point - hasn't it?

Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Go go Glencore!

I never thought I's see the day. GLEN:Glencore is pulling clear of the doldrums and rather than being £1,100 down like a few weeks ago, is now only £300 down. It's nowhere near my worst share any more and is officially no longer my nemesis.

There are three contenders for nemesis share

AFG:Aquatic Food. I had such high hopes for this one, and still do. However, there's a tinge of doubt that can only be purged by a strong set of financial results. By strong I mean transparent. They have to prove to investors that they are serious, and not about to do something horrible and de-list from the Stock Exchange. This week someone has been offloading 10,000 shares every day and nobody is buying them, so the price is plummeting. It's now down 67% and showing a paper loss of £833. I'm still keeping the faith. Their finances look sound if they are true. I really, really hope they are true!

My other big loser is RCI:Rapidcloud. This one doesn't concern me in terms of transparency. In fact, they have been very transparent at why their profits will be hammered by a new Malaysian tax. I fear that's what's caused the share price to tank. However, I still believe they are in a strong position and have many big clients, so once this dodgy period is out of the way things should recover. These are down 65% and showing a paper loss of £734

The final contender for nemesis share is a very recent purchase. FXI:Fusionex are in a similar business to Rapidcloud. I bought them because I believed their shares had dropped following a misunderstanding in a trading update. There has been lots of buying of this one, but it appears a massive sale has flooded the market with shares so it may keep tumbling until they are used up. I should have waited another week to buy them! They are down 26% and losing £316

I think the nemesis award must go to AFG:Aquatic Food, as I'm genuinely concerned they could de-list and the loss would obliterate most of my actual profits. I long for reassurance that they are for real.

General feelings are very positive so far this week. It's wonderful to see the FTSE back above 6,000 and although my gold mines are dropping, they are still in profit so I'm hoping will stabilise that way. Nine shares are in profit from my main accounts and three from my SIPP which is getting perilously close to breaking even.

The JLP:Jubilee Platinum purchase was well timed on Monday, as the SIPP shares have risen 13% and are showing £84 profit in 3 days. The shares in my other accounts are down by £66 which means overall I'm showing a profit, despite them not having started production yet. There could be spectacular action to come with these. I may bed the ones in my normal account into my SIPP so any profits will be tax free and keep the ones in my ISA. The problem with bedding them is that I lose 4% spread and £11.95 to buy the new shares, so a better approach might be to sell them and then transfer the proceeds, and wait for the price to drop before re-purchasing. The problem there is the extra £11.95 commission. So maybe I'll just leave them alone - there's no way they'll take me over my capital gains allowance.

One of my favourite shares TON:Titon Holdings has had a bit of a surge following the crash. That's now back up to a 23% rise and £364 profit. I'm sure these have got plenty of room to grow more yet.

The other major event today was the transfer of most of my StockTrade shares to my Hargreaves Lansdown account. This was in preference to the automatic transfer to Alliance Trust, as Brewin Dolphin have sold the StockTrade business to them. Unfortunately my PUR:Pure Wafer shares have caused a problem, as Hargreaves Lansdown cannot accept them. They are in limbo until September when the final liquidation dividend is paid. I'm a bit limited as to my options. I suspect allowing them to transfer to Alliance Trust is my only option, but I don't want to end up being charged more than they're worth in order to keep them until September. It's somewhat frustrating. Main reason for joy is that I wanted to transfer everything to Hargreaves Lansdown anyway, but it would have cost me £250 in charges. The sell-out to Alliance Trust means it was all done free.

So, in mid-week things are looking a lot more rosy than Monday, but can this period of rising prices continue? It would be so nice to report on a profitable pension and reduction in paper deficit on Friday. Here's hoping...