Week 223 Review - One of the worst weeks ever

Just as things looked like they were turning around and gently recovering, this week hit with a bang. The portfolio collapsed by £10,217. £9,450 of this was down to a 9p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix, but nearly everything dropped, including all my biggest holdings. The deficit between cost and value increased to £30,444 and the overall value dropped to £74,712.

The biggest loser was OPTI:Optibiotix and I don't know what justifies a 9p drop. I'm particularly annoyed that the "bargain" 5,000 shares I bought last week for 62.3p I could now buy for 54p. Dreadful timing yet again. I didn't for a moment believe we would go back into the 50's. A 14% drop means my holdings are down by 21% and losing around £14.5K. I'm not happy!

JLP:Jubilee Metals did exactly what they always do. Absolutely brilliant results saw the price heading towards 5p and so a few hours later they anounced a discounted placing at 4p so the share price promptly plummeted. I was in profit for a couple of hours and now I'm 7% down on last week and back to an 8% loss.The only glimmer of comfort is that the results were very good, but my concern is the contempt in which they regard shareholders when they do placing after placing and never give anything back.

The prospects at JLP are so good that I would invest much more, but it's the lack of trust that will prevent me putting anything else in, as if you don't trust your management team then how can you put your money in their hands? I may be thinking very differently if income trebles and they decide to start paying a dividend. I appreciate money is required within the company to fuel growth, but at some point the shareholders need to see some return.

IQE:IQE had a 2nd bad week on the run, dropping 6% in my ISA just as it looked like they may get into the black. All their customers are reporting big profit increases, which should mean IQE will too. Despite this, a further 2% of shares have been lent out to shorters, so it's under renewed attack. I just hope they decide to close their shorts for Christmas!

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is doing exactly what I thought it would do and dropping off from the 20p resistance price. It fell another 5% this week so I'm glad I banked my profits. Unfortunately like a prize idiot I used the proceeds to buy more OPTI:Optibiotix instead of saving it for when these drop. My only hope is if my pension transfer in 2 weeks time could coincide with these getting down to my target price.

No shares climbed by 5% or more for the 2nd week in a row, which is in itself very disturbing. Share of the Week is TLOU:Tlou Energy which climbed 4% but is still 41% down and losing £1,113. I remain optimistic that these will come good, as their CEO knows what he's doing and has a proven track record.

Un-be-flippin-lievable!

What did I say about dragging the trend line flat - Pah!

Here's the performance, or lack of, for the ISA and share portfolios

			Weekly Change
Cash	£19.49		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£39,661.86	(-31.3%)	-£5,579.17
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£51.39	(-1.1%)	+£3.68
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£415.15	(8.6%)	-£1.87
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.4%		-0.1%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

I had to turn the sell value a deeper shade of red as it dropped by 10%. Massive decline in value and just generally very depressing.

Almost back to the injection line.

Back below the trend line which just keeps getting steeper.

The SIPP looks like this after week 207

			Weekly Change
Cash	£103.28		+£0
Portfolio cost	£44,895.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£33,571.67	(-25.2%)	-£4,581.64
Potential profits	£362.97		-£120.00
Yr 4 Dividends	£556.99		+£0
Yr 4 Interest	£0.10		+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales	£2,004.18		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£203.92	(5.5%)	-£4.08
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.13		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£293.18	(7.8%)	-£1.43
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.7%		-0.1%
Compound performance	50%		+0%

Just as depressing as the ISA, with a 10% drop in value and an additional £120 drop in paper profits. All rather sad.

A bigger buffer to the injection amount here.

The drop has gone further below the trend line than the ISA has.

Here's the trading account after week 173

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,307.81	(-43.7%)	-£56.36
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£3.36	(1.7%)	-£0.21
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.41	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Everything lost money this week, but fortunately not very much. My recent good run came to an abrupt end.

Back on the trend line but not below it. Unfortunately, although the line is relatively flat, it has sunk a long way below zero.

I thought I'd try and cheer myself up by looking at some of may sells over the past few years and see whether I was right to sell.

OCDO:Ocado was my first sell, and I sold them based on the teaching of Robbie Burns as they had dropped by more than 15%. I bought them for 371p and sold them for 320 making a £92 loss. They are now selling for 1,152p and I would have made a £963 (200%) profit if I had kept them. Hmm - wasn't this exercise meant to cheer me up?

PTY:Parity Group was one of my earliest purchases as we used them at work for aptitude testing. I bought them for 7.5p and sold them for 8.31p making £7 (2.2%) profit because I wanted to get rid of them without taking a loss. They now sell for 8.75p so I could have made an extra £18 which isn't a lot.

ISG:ISG used to kit out offices. I say used to as they went bust. I bought at 168.8p and sold at 235p making £173 (32.6%) profit before they had a chance to go under. That makes me feel less sad!

REDD:Redde I bought for 158.51p and sold for 177.02p making £20 (4.8%) profit. They now sell for 106.4p so I would be sat on a £152 (38%) loss if I'd kept them. Phew!

STL:Stilo have taken themselves off the market so I would have lost my £837 investment, but I bought at 4.13p and sold at 5.1p so made £170 (20%) profit and dodged a bullet.

TFW:Thorpe Lighting are doing pretty well and selling for 272p. I bought mine for 194.76p but sold at 212.46p making £64 (6.4%) profit instead of the £362 (37%) I would be on now. They are a good, solid, well managed company and I regret selling. I'm seriously tempted to get back into these as they have fallen recently but revenues are still up.

BA.:BAE Systems I sold as I decided they were not very ethical. I sold mine at 498.975p after buying for 451.9p which was a £33 (5.9%) profit on a small investment. They now sell for 573p which would have got me £129 (21%) profit.

HLMA:Halma was my first "expensive" share and probably the one I regret selling the most, as it was a proper investment in a sound, well managed business. I sold mine for 871.4p after buying at 767.78p so made £74 (9.9%) profit. They now sell for 1,878.5p and I would have made £1,081 (138%) profit. Oh woe is me - what an idiot!!

GBG:GB Group was another investment driven by our use of their products at work. I only bought £500 worth for 246.55p and sold for 265.01p making £13 (2.5%) profit. The current sell price is 655p so if I had held on to them I would have £793 (157%) profit. Aaargh!

SHB:Shaftesbury are a property investment company in London. I sold them when the property market looked like it would take a dive. I bought mine at 887.96p and sold for 930.6p making £62 (3.5%) profit. If I had kept them they are selling at 934.5p and I'd have made nothing except dividends in the 4 years.

That's 10 of my earlier holdings and the first things I sold. In those days my portfolio was very small, so the relatively small profits seemed a lot. Now I realise that I sold out of quality companies to chase potential big growth companies and instead ended up with a load of toxic shares. I may review the next 10 if I get time next week.

I need to return to my first principles, as it appears I was a much better share picker when I first started than I am now, because I had strict rules and chose solid companies. If I had stuck to those rules I would have a very healthy, dividend-paying portfolio now instead of a massively volatile and potentially toxic portfolio.

Will I learn a lesson from today's review? We'll find out in 2 weeks time when I spend my £2K pension transfer...

Week 222 Review - A downward dip, but a few more Optibiotix in the bag

It was a pretty flat week apart from a drop in OPTI:Optibiotix. That was mostly responsible for the fall of £2,335 in portfolio value which took the deficit between cost and value to £20,227 and reduced the overall portfolio value to £84,929.

The 2p fall in OPTI:Optibiotix was a very small percentage, but cost £2,000. Most of the rest of the drop was IQE:IQE which fell 7% in my ISA just as it looked like profit was around the corner.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics was the other big faller, dropping 5% and making me relieved I sold my SIPP holding last week.

Share of the week is WRES:W Resources, which climbed 3% and was the highest percentage gain. It was worth about £20 so not exactly enough to retire on. They have at least started producing concentrate now, so if some revenue figures start coming in we may see enough of a re-rate for me to sell the things.

Note the increase in cost, which will be explained in my SIPP review.

Nothing to worry about,

Here's the ISA and share accounts' performance

			Weekly Change
Cash	£19.49		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£45,241.03	(-21.7%)	-£1,366.82
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£55.07	(-1.1%)	+£2.98
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£417.02	(8.7%)	-£1.96
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.4%		-0.1%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Cash dropped due to the monthly ISA charge, and a sizeable drop in value. Still nothing in profit.

Not a scary dip.

Still safely on the right side of the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 206

			Weekly Change
Cash	£103.28		-£3,334.69
Portfolio cost	£44,895.31		+£3,319.46
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£38,153.31	(-15.0%)	-£957.00
Potential profits	£482.97		+£75.00
Yr 4 Dividends	£556.99		+£0
Yr 4 Interest	£0.10		+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales	£2,004.18		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£208.00	(5.6%)	-£5.59
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.13		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£294.61	(7.9%)	-£1.76
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.7%		-0.1%
Compound performance	50%		+0%

Cash plummeted as I spent £3,319.46 on more OPTI:Optibiotix shares and paid the monthly SIPP charge. I know I said I would wait for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to drop, but when OPTI slipped below 63p I couldn't stop myself from getting some more. I have around £2,000 coming from my work pension in a few weeks, so I'll endeavor to buy SBTX with that (honest).

I bought another 5,309 shares at 62.3p which is still a complete bargain and averages down my SIPP price from just over 66p to 65.97p. It's like buying SBTX anyway, as it just increases the amount of dividend I get when OPTI sell off some of their shares.

It wasn't a great week, and even my 62.3p resulted in a loss on the new shares as they closed at bid price of 61p. The increase in portfolio cost meant my performance fell from 8.6% to 7.9% against cost, but just 0.1% against the injection amount.

There are only 2 weeks left of year 4, so it's looking like a below average year for profits, with just 5.6%. That's still better than any building society though.

The cost bounces back up and is around £1,000 higher thanks to the profit from the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics sale the other week and the CAML:Central Asia Metals dividend. Value doesn't go up as the cash was included last week.

Third week of dipping for this account, but the right side of the trend line.

Here's the trading account after week 172

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,364.17	(-41.2%)	-£11.31
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£3.57	(1.8%)	-£0.24
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.41	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

A small drop this week as everything except CAML:Central Asia Metals lost ground. I'm doing more trading in my SIPP than I am in this account!

I'm not going to flatten out the trend line very fast at this rate.

Things are really moving at JLP:Jubilee Metals. Last week there was an announcement that they have purchased the rights to sell all the chrome from what used to be Hernic and is now called Inyoni. It cost $16m but should return a lot more. It also included access to another million tons of PGM-rich tailings, so the monthly income from Inyoni and Windsor is really stepping up. Production is imminent at Kabwe too, so we may be on the verge of a significant breakout. Results are due next week or the week after, and for once I'm looking forward to them.

I bought my shares for an average of 4.41p and we currently have a bid price of 4.4p and an offer price of 4.6p. I very nearly used the £3,300 cash to buy more of these at 4.3p. I had the screen up and was hovering over the buy button. I decided against it because they are still very, very high risk despite the fact things may be going well. I decided 104,545 shares was enough of a risk and so went back to my old faithful OPTI:Optibiotix instead.

There's talk of JLP getting to 7p quite soon which would put them at £2,667 paper profit. There's also talk of them getting to 10p by Christmas, which would give me £5,803 paper profit. That would be a review point as this company has a Chairman I don't like and a habit of shooting themselves in the foot. The problem is, if the cash comes in at the rate they think it might, and if metal prices recover, they could be at 38p by next year. That's paper profit of £35,000 so I just need to ask myself how risk averse am I feeling?

They are talking to global producers about "dealing with" their tailings dumps. They have the technology to extract the metals, and the end result is they clean up the polluted sites, so on environmental grounds this would seem an ethical investment. I may decide to sell enough to get my original investment back, and hold the rest for the long term. I've never managed to do that yet, but there's always a first time.

OPTI:Optibiotix sold a million or so SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares this week in order to ensure they have contingency to meet the supply requirements of major retailers in UK and USA. There are launches planned for January 2020 and they include TV adverts, so our products will finally start to get some brand recognition. The spring is coiling tighter and tighter, and I can't wait for it to let go.

I guess I should review my OPTI:Optibiotix holding stats again after the recent purchase, and calculate how much the value changes for each 1p change in share price. My total holding is now 105,332 shares. This is significant as it means I can sell the 3,965 in my standard share account to pay for my Antarctic holiday without dropping below 100,000 shares. The total cost of the shares is £69,515.60 at a weighted average price of 65.99p, so any more I can buy below that price is a bonus.

My shares are currently in the red by £5,298 but each penny change is worth £1,053 so I need a 6p increase to get back into profit. The broker target is 97p which would give me paper profit of £32,620, and a 6p dividend for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics (which I consider to be around what we could expect) would give £6,319. It's nice to dream of what might be. Let's see if any of it comes true...

Week 221 Review - Small tick upwards and some new metrics

Week 221 got off to a great start, but pulled back a bit towards the end. Last week's losses were won back as the difference between cost and value improved by £1,244. The deficit between cost and value is now £17,891 and portfolio value plus cash is £87,283.

There were no significant losers this week which is a rare treat.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is on a real march, with everything coming together and anticipation of an announcement of maiden profit possibly as soon as next week. The shares climbed 5% and my holding is now only 1% down and losing just £51. I'm glad I hung on in there, as this may end up making me some money. I have 104,545 shares, so if we move from increments of 0.1p to increments of 1p then each penny is worth £1,000 and would be the equivalent of OPTI:Optibiotix in the magnitude of rises and falls.

My IQE:IQE holding is around the same size as my JLP:Jubilee Metals holding in terms of cost, so a climb of 7% was excellent this week. All their customers are announcing excellent results, so that should filter down to profits. Add to that the new foundry significantly improving capacity for production, and we may get back over 100p. My ISA holding is only 1% in the red now, but my SIPP is still 44% down.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which climbed 13% and I feel a bit bad that I celebrated this by selling a load on Friday. My remaining ISA holding is still down, but by only 4% now.

There are so many shares on the cusp of getting back into profit. If next week is kind then there could be more green on my spreadsheet than I've seen for a few years.

A dip in cost following the sale, as I've not re-invested yet. Value plus cash creeps up a bit.

Moving in the right direction. Can it last?

Here's the ISA and share portfolios

			Weekly Change
Cash	£23.24		+£20.00
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£46,607.85	(-19.3%)	+£1,160.32
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£58.05	(-1.2%)	+£4.84
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£418.98	(8.7%)	-£1.90
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.5%		+0%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

I added £20 cash as there wasn't enough in the account to cover the ISA charges. I could do with selling something to get my year 5 profit in the black. The loss was incurred when I sold AMYT:Amryt Pharma because Harry Stratford stepped down as Chair. They are now selling for 117p as opposed to the 100p I got, so I would have made £68 profit instead of £165 loss. However, I wouldn't have been able to buy a load of OPTI:Optibiotix shares at 46.7p which are up 35% which is worth £480. Only problem is I've vowed never to sell any OPTI:Optibiotix shares because I want the dividend to be my retirement income. 5% of my target share price of £6 in 5 years time is dividend of 30p a share. That would give me £30,000 tax free income a year, which would be nice!

I have two new metrics!

I realised that I've been very tough on myself  with my average monthly performance figures as I'm basing them on the cost of the portfolio. As the cost increases with re-investment, it gets increasingly difficult to hit the 10% target. I still want to keep that target, but for ease of mind I've added another percentage based on the injection amount, which doesn't go up when profits are re-invested. That's showing an average of 13.5% per month. I feel a lot better now!

The other new metric is a straightforward compound performance based on total profit plus dividends minus fees divided by the total injection amount. 57% is a nice return for just over 4 years. I suppose you could still work that out by multiplying 13.5 by 4 and a bit, but it's nice to see it spelled out.

Slow and steady.

Dragging that trend line flatter!

Here's the SIPP after week 205

			Weekly Change
Cash	£3,437.97		+£3,231.80
Portfolio cost	£41,575.85		-£2,389.57
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£35,790.85	(-13.9%)	+£66.97
Potential profits	£407.97		-£400.68
Yr 4 Dividends	£556.99		+£0
Yr 4 Interest	£0.10		+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales	£2,004.18		+£842.23
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£213.59	(6.2%)	+£71.59
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.13		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£842.23
Average monthly cash profit	£296.37	(8.6%)	+£16.44
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.8%		+0.8%
Compound performance	50%		+3%

A complex picture this week. Cash is up from the proceeds of the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics sale. I sold all my 16,983 shares at 19.1p after paying 14p which gave £842 (35%) profit. I bought these in the fire sale after taking a small loss on CAML:Central Asia Metals because I couldn't bear to see them so cheap. In theory I should put the proceeds back into CAML because I want to get it up to 10% of my portfolio. However, I think traders are playing around with SBTX like they have been with OPTI, and 20p has proved a resistance point several times before. I'm going to do what I've never managed before and keep the cash in anticipation of a SBTX dip. My target to buy back in is 16p. If the anticipated news comes in and the price rockets, I still have my ISA holding and a vast holding courtesy of my OPTI shares so I'm hoping it's a sound strategy. Having said that, if there is news of a big deal next week I may howl quite loudly.

Although the sell value has come down a lot, if you take into account the cost also reducing, then the rest of the portfolio is up by £66 this week. Profits are down by £400 due to the sale, but as that yielded £842 then potential profits would have been up £442 this week, all of which was SBTX.

Year 4 performance has been enhanced greatly from projected average of 4% a month to 6.2% and my long-term average improved by 0.6% from 8% to 8.6% which I really needed to do as I was way off target.Looking at the new metrics, the performance based on the injection amount went up by 0.8% to 12.8% and the compound performance went up 3% from 47% to 50%.

Quite a nice way to narrow the gap, but it will widen again when the cash vanishes and the cost goes back up.

I had to overhaul these performance charts as I realised I was including cash in the value. This chart had a big rise for this week which was completely wrong. Most of the time it doesn't matter as there's very little cash in the account, but it was really obvious this week. Now this is only including the shares value, whereas cash is still included on the top chart.

Here's the trading account after week 171

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,375.48	(-40.7%)	+£17.46
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£3.81	(2.0%)	-£0.28
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.41	(-0.2%)	+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Small rises for a few of the stocks but a quiet week really. The new measures are very similar to the ones based on cost as the cost and injection are almost identical. The plan is for the injection to reduce in this one as I withdraw profits. That might make the figures meaningless, especially if it goes below £0 but that's a long way off based on current performance.

Creeping up but still a way off selling anything. CAML:Central Asia Metals is only 17% down so that's the most likely candidate, although IQE:IQE can move very quickly when it wants, but has 31% to make up.

Still looking better, but a long way in the red.

That's all for this week. I can't wait for next week as there's all sorts of things could be happening with JLP:Jubilee Metals, IQE:IQE, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and OPTI:Optibiotix, and I have a big pile of cash should any opportunities arise. I hope the opportunity is to buy back into SBTX, but if that rockets I'll still be happy and spend it on something else - possibly £2,500 back into CAML:Central Asia Metals where it was robbed from in the first place, and £900 on something exciting.

Week 220 Review - A good week but a down week

It was generally a good week, with a nice dividend and some of my bigger holdings doing really well. Even a 2p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix could only result in a £1,143 drop in portfolio value, so there were significant gains to offset that loss. The deficit between cost and value has widened to £19,136 and the total portfolio value is £85,176.

Only one big loser this week but it was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which I think suffered some profit taking after last week and dropped 8% in my ISA and 10% in my SIPP. I'm still around £160 up on my combined holdings though.

IQE:IQE had a great week, with my SIPP holding gaining 7%, my trading account gaining 9% and my ISA gaining 11%. The ISA is only 8% down now, so it would be nice to get a slow move up to around 90p for £400 (19%) potential profit. My traget for these is 120p which would give me £1,261 (58%) profit and ease my falling average profit performance.

Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals, which six months ago looked like it was never going to get anywhere. An announcement that they have bought out the rights to all PGM profits at Hernic for $5.1 million gave the share price a good kick, and most people won't be aware of it yet. With earnings of over $1 million a month from Hernic, and with Kabwe not far from production, there could finally be a re-rate. They climbed 11% this week and are only 6% down. Given I own over 100,000 shares and invested £4,639 this is one of my largest holdings and has been in the red for a long, long time. I'm hoping they will do a SLP:Sylvania Platinum and get to 30p, as that will give me £26K profit, and I will take that!

Compared to some weeks over the last few months that's not a bad chart. It does seem odd that I'm starting to consider a £1,000 drop as a flat week! It looks quite flat on the chart though.

Still above the trend line which is very important.

Here's the ISA and share accounts

			Weekly Change
Cash	£3.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£45,447.53	(-21.3%)	-£378.88
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£62.89	(-1.3%)	+£5.72
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£420.88	(8.7%)	-£1.93
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

The big gains for IQE:IQE and JLP:Jubilee Metals almost cancelled out the drops in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and OPTI:Optibiotix. IQE:IQE is now looking my best bet for a sale and a return towards my 10% target.

There will be a tiny tweak upwards on the injection line next week as I need to add £20 to the ISA to cover fees. Meanwhile the value is still nearer the injection amount than the cost so a severe under-performance.

Although the right side of the trend line, it needs to be much higher above it than this.

The SIPP looks like this after week 204

			Weekly Change
Cash	£206.17		+£200.00
Portfolio cost	£43,965.42		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£38,113.45	(-13.3%)	-£830.48
Potential profits	£808.65		-£134.74
Yr 4 Dividends	£556.99		+£195.00
Yr 4 Interest	£0.10		+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales	£1,161.95		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£142.00	(3.9%)	+£14.95
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£195.00
Total Interest	£0.13		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£11,706.87		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£279.93	(7.6%)	+£2.79
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash increased thanks to £195 dividend from CAML:Central Asia Metals and £5 from the tax man for a small injection I made a few months ago. The value was hit by the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and OPTI:Optibiotix drops, and the small rise in CAML:Central Asia Metals wasn't enough to mitigate it. Long term performance didn't flinch, with the dividend only moving it up by £2.79 a month. 7.6% is way too low and I need to do something about that soon. I'm still counting on MMX:Minds + Machines for that, but it steadfastly refuses to increase in value despite director purchases and a buy-back scheme.

A bit of a steeper dip, but not too far from getting back into the black.

This account has far fewer toxic shares than the ISA so the recovery should be much faster.

Here's the trading account after week 170

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£13.20
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,358.02	(-41.5%)	+£65.96
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£13.20
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£4.09	(2.1%)	+£4.09
Dividends	£47.92		+£13.20
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.42	(-0.2%)	+£0.34
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

I bet not many people get dividends in their trading account! It was a great week, with nearly all the shares up and IQE:IQE up a lot. The £13 dividend gave me something to put in the year 4 profit rows, and I'm one sale away from getting into overall profit. I'm pretty certain that sale will be CAML:Central Asia Metals as it's like a coiled spring.

Still a hell of a big gap to make up.

At last we're on the right side of the trend line. I so desperately want to see one of these lines pointing upwards.

So what might happen next week?

There are strikes in the copper mines in Chile, where 25% of the world's copper is produced. The copper price is so low that no companies are exploring for new mines, but demand is still high and set to increase, with things like electric cars having large amounts of copper. Copper is also being heavily shorted, so at some point the shorters will close and the price should rise sharply. When it does, CAML:Central Asia Metals should return to the price it was at before the slump in prices. That was 340p, and with my enlarged holding that would give paper profits of £4,277 (72%). I'd like to buy back the 2,000 shares I sold last month so hope they can hang on at these levels till late November when I get my next £2,000 SIPP transfer.

It's possible something is going on at BLU:Blue Star Capital, one of my more disastrous shares in my trading account. They are 88% down but there was a 6% rise on Friday following a placing earlier in the week to allow them to invest in e-sports. Add to that some stirrings on Twitter from Satoshipay and there's a vague possibility things may turn around. There's a lot of turning round to do if I'm going to see any profit though.

Nothing else happening that I'm aware of, so just keep everything crossed we get news of some exciting deals.

Week 219 Review - The bounce back continues

I wrote a blog on Wednesday because I was afraid by today things wouldn't be so great. I was right, as both Thursday and Friday saw sizable drops. It's still an upbeat blog though, as the combined portfolios climbed by £11,677 and narrowed the deficit between cost and value to £17,993. Overall value has increased to £86,106.

There were no big losers this week, but quite a lot of small losers. Fortunately some of my biggest holdings did well.

JLP:Jubilee Metals continued it's journey upwards, climbing 7%. This is now down by 17%, but there's an excellent chance good profits will be announced this year, and when Kabwe starts production the share price should be due a re-rate.

OPTI:Optibiotix is on one of its rolls, and one bit of decent news could cause a big spike. We're getting hints at sizable retail deals for our own products and for products formulated specially for the retailers, so although the margins will be low, the revenue could be huge. The shares climbed 11p which is 16% and accounts for most of this week's gains.

16% isn't good enough for Share of the Week though. OPTI's off-shoot company SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics soared by 21% in my SIPP to go 27% up with potential profits of £655. Shame this is my long term holding, as my trading shares are in the ISA and are still 9% down.

Looking good. Around half of the banked profits I had re-invested have been clawed back. A couple more weeks like this one would see me back in the black.

Above the trend line and lets hope it stays there.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£3.24		-£3.12
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£45,826.41	(-20.7%)	+£6,690.62
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£68.61	(-1.4%)	+£6.86
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£422.81	(8.8%)	-£1.94
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

On Wednesday I had paper profit again as OPTI:Optibiotix climbed to 69p, but by Friday it was back down to 64p and a loss. The reduction in losses of £6,690 was fantastic though, as OPTI:Optobiotix, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and JLP:Jubilee Metals all climbed significantly higher.

This account is still closer to the injection value than the cost, so a way to go yet.

The right side of the trend line, but can I drag it above zero?

The SIPP looks like this after week 203

			Weekly Change
Cash	£6.17		+£0
Portfolio cost	£43,965.42		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£38,943.93	(-11.4%)	+£4,982.46
Potential profits	£943.39		+£344.49
Yr 4 Dividends	£361.99		+£0
Yr 4 Interest	£0.10		+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales	£1,161.95		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£127.05	(3.5%)	-£2.76
Total Dividends	£1,704.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.13		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£11,706.87		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£277.14	(7.6%)	-£1.38
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story to the ISA, but this time we also have an increase in paper profits of £344 thanks to SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. There was a slight drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals which reduced this a little, but next week the dividend will arrive so that will inject a few hundred quid. I need a big sale as 7.6% is way too low for long term average profit, but it's going to need something quite big to get back to 10% and I want to hold this batch of SBTX.

Pretty close to going back into the black, which is where this account traditionally sits.

Well above the trend line and with more chance of pivoting above the zero line.

The trading account looks like this after week 169

			Weekly Change
Cash	£35.04		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,292.06	(-44.3%)	+£4.39
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£34.72		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.76	(-0.4%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Tiny increase this week, but better than a drop. Still miles off being able to sell anything.

Good job it was an interest free loan to prime this account as I've not returned very much to my bank account! I was hoping the injection line would be down to zero by now as I pulled out profits and just kept the £2,500 cost stable by buying £500 worth each time I sold. Epic fail!

Just about back on the trend line but needs to be well above it.

There's so much happening with OPTI:Optibiotix at the moment I'm really excited. The momentum is building and so many of the deals have the potential to bring in bug revenues. It's the sheer quantity of deals that is so amazing, and now we are seeing the ingredients inside actual products. If we can just ensure that H2 meets income expectations, then there should be a surge to our broker target of 97p.

It's great being invested in a company where there's a thrill of excitement every morning wondering if today will be the big news. We've had tons of small news, quite a bit of medium news, but as far as I can see there is potential for at least 6 or 7 items of massive news. Sweetbiotix supply contract, LPGOS deal, retail deal, Probiotix IPO, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dividend, SBTX deal with multinational and LP-LDL pharma trial results.

I guess I shouldn't lose sight of the rest of my portfolio. Most of that has been trashed recently so it's depressing to look at it.

I have so many companies that are over 80% down on when I bought them, and I fear for their ability to turn such a drop around.

BLCC:Block Commodities emerged from AFPO:African Potash and is only listed on NEX. That's down 101% thanks to commission and I have no hope of getting back my £707.

BLU:Blue Star Capital is down 91% as it appears Satoshipay is never going to get anywhere. Fortunately I'll only lose £520 on that.

KIBO:Kibo Energy had so much promise and I bought into the story, but they are down 95% and I'll lose quite big on this one with a £2,635 investment.

MAIS:Maistro was formed from BLUR:Blur Group and they have de-listed and are down 108% if you include commission so that's a puny £122 loss as I bought them very early in my investment career.

MTFB:Motif Bio is probably the most upsetting disaster as I bought a load more after successful phase III trials, not expecting the FDA to screw them over. The chances of them going bust are very high now. My holding is down 99% and I stand to lose £2,521

RED:RedT Energy looked like it had nailed the future of power grid storage with its vanadium redox flow machines, but you have to sell them to make any money, and with gigantic cash burn they are pretty much doomed. They are down 91% and I stand to lose £1,092.

TRK:Torotrak went bust, but the shares still sit in my account. I hardly bought any so will only lose £106 when I fanally write them off.

N4P:N4 Pharma had a diverse range of products so I thought I was investing in a relatively low risk company, until it turned out none of their re-formulations worked and they trashed that whole side of the company. Now they are a one-trick pony with a potential vector for delivering cancer treatments, and these sort of things don't have a great track record of success so I suspect I will wave goodbye to £1,244 as these are down 85%.

I bought SAE:Simex Atlantis Energy because I was sold on the benefits of tidal electricity, but they don't seem to be making any money out of it and are spending lots. These are down 88%, but I have a little hope for them. I will lose £659 if they go bust.

TRX:Tissue Regenix was another great promise, but again they are spending way more money than they are making, and it hasn't helped that Neil Woodford was heavily invested and has been offloading. They are down 88% and I'll lose £1,800 when they go bust.

So I make that a total of £11,406 that I'll most likely have to write off as a loss. My total realised profits over the 4 years are £31,931, so it looks like I'll lose a third of that. I'd still be making around 6% long term average profit though, so even with these disasters it's better than a building society.

You never know - some of them may yet turn things around...

Optibiotix back in the black!

I couldn't wait until weekend to post as I'm bouncing up and down like a bouncy thing.

There's always a risk it will have turned around by weekend so I want to make sure I get an opportunity to sing from the rooftops that after plunging to horrible lows 3 weeks ago with a paper loss of £20,000, OPTI:Optibiotix is today sitting at a bid price of 69p and paper profits of £2,783.

In those three weeks my portfolio value has gone from £64,907 to £91,102. That's an increase of £26,000.

I do believe I was saying that I was sure when the craziness was over, OPTI would rocket, and it has.

That's why I bought a load more at 46p, which have increased by exactly 50%.

Given the relentless great news that has been flowing over the last few months, and the industry awards being won on a regular basis, even now the shares seem ridiculously cheap.

The thing that's most exciting about being an OPTI shareholder is that we've not yet seen the really big news. Despite everything that we already have all over the world, we've not even started commercialising LPGOS or Sweetbiotix.

LPGOS has been found to improve the performance of existing probiotics, including our own LP-LDL and the most widely sold probiotic LGG.

Sweetbiotix is a calorie-free fibre that tastes like sugar and has none of the dodgy aftertaste or potential side-effects of artificial sweeteners.

Even if we didn't already have Slimbiome and LP-LDL winning awards, getting kite marks, being certified as safe in foods and with production facilities suitable for pharma, we'd still justify the current share price on LPGOS and Sweetbiotix alone.

Oh - and we own about 37% of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which is on the verge of signing a commercial deal with a global corporation, and have been promised a percentage of this as a dividend payout when some of those shares are placed with an institution.

It's been very distressing watching my portfolio being utterly hammered, especially when it sank to below the amount of cash I'd put in. At no point in that difficult period did I want to do anything other than buy more OPTI:Optibiotix shares. I didn't have that much ammunition, and had to sell 40% of my holding in CAML:Central Asia Metals at a small loss to do it, but the last three weeks have seen that loss well and truly recovered.

I only needed 3,000 to get past 100,000 shares, so my purchase at 46p was £1,391p. Even so, making £684 on these shares in a few weeks is a lot better than the £103 I would have made on a 14p increase in CAML:Central Asia Metals since then.

Add to that the remainder of the CAML sale went on SBTX and is £400 up.

I don't usually time things very well, but that seems to have worked out.

Let's look at the charts for the combined accounts...

What a climb! Much nearer to cost of portfolio than it is to initial cash injection.

The trend line is smashed through and is being tugged back towards the flat.

They do say pride comes before a fall, so I may still end up writing Friday's post in a state of utter misery, but I don't care because I've waited a long time to be happy about something in my portfolio, and I want to enjoy being happy even if it's just for a day.